The Pros and Cons of a Pierre-Luc Dubois Trade

If rumours alone were enough to land a player on a new team, Pierre-Luc Dubois would be a Montreal Canadien by now. It’s been hammered home, several times, that Dubois would like to end up in Montreal, although never confirmed by Dubois himself (for somewhat obvious reasons). And yet, at least for now, Dubois is a Winnipeg Jet. The question is, will the Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets engage in trade talks?

It’s certainly on the table, but I wouldn’t call it a homerun just yet, even if Elliotte Friedman suggested there was a 95% chance of it happening at some point. There are some pros to the Canadiens trading for Dubois, a player with skill the Canadiens could undoubtedly use. But it’s not without a risk that might make it not worth giving up assets for.

There appears to be an appetite for a rebuild in Winnipeg, with Connor Hellebuyck, Blake Wheeler, and Mark Scheifele also listed by The Athletic as potential names to be moved by the Jets this off-season. So it certainly suggests that the Jets will be willing to move on from several key pieces from their squad, Dubois included. The question will come down to price and whether or not the Canadiens want to play ball.

I’ve seen some wacky trade proposals from both fan bases (Like 5th overall for Dubois or Dubois for Rem Pitlick and a 5th), and I can say neither of those will happen. But I think a deal could get done if both sides wanted to. But knowing this isn’t cut and dry, let’s delve into that and discuss the pros and cons of the Canadiens trading for Dubois.

If the Canadiens want to become Cup contenders, they must improve offensively, specifically in their top-six. The fifth overall pick gives them an excellent chance to do that, but so would trading for Pierre-Luc Dubois. The Quebec native is coming off his best season, where he put up 27 goals and 63 points in 73 games this year. At just 24 (25 in June), he’s only 14 months older than Nick Suzuki and appears to be entering his prime. He’d be a welcomed addition of skill to the Canadiens’ top six. And he’s big, too, so that should also satisfy those of you who believe the Canadiens need more size.

But hey, he’s now a pending RFA, and it looks as though he won’t be signing a long-term deal in Winnipeg, so why not wait until he hits the open market? The Habs could offer sheet him or hope he signs a one-year contract that walks him to unrestricted free agency. So why not be patient if he truly desires playing here? The difference between trading for Dubois now and waiting a year or two to grab him in free agency is somewhat significant, at least in terms of how long he’d remain in Montreal.

As a free agent, the best the Habs could offer Dubois is seven years, whereas if the Canadiens owned his rights, they could sign him for eight. An extra year of Dubois might be worth the compensation, especially if the Canadiens can avoid giving up anything too significant. The Canadiens have an abundance of prospects who project to be good middle-six players with potential top-six upside. They also have an extra first-round pick now slated to fall between 29-32nd as opposed to 17th.

Finally, consider the fact that while the Canadiens may be linked to Dubois, the Jets don’t have to be the ones to send him there. If the Jets wanted to move Dubois, I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple teams stepped up to the plate and made an offer, giving the Jets options. While Dubois may want to go to Montreal, joining a cup-contending team in a more forgiving climate than Winnipeg could change his mind. Say a team like Vegas or Dallas jumped into the mix. Both teams are in warmer climates, with quality hockey teams and, perhaps most importantly, no income tax. I can see how that makes Dubois, or any player, change their tune on their previous aspirations.

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Now this isn’t to say these teams have talked or will talk to the Jets about Dubois, but it is something worth considering. Some teams might consider going after Dubois if they think he can help them win. The Jets won’t do the Canadiens a favour. They’re going to take the best offer. If the Canadiens really want Dubois (which hasn’t necessarily been proven to be the case), they might need to deliver an offer for him that proves that. Otherwise, you run the risk of hoping he’ll be available in free agency when he might not. Trading for him now means he’s all yours, and you get an additional year because of it.

Let’s not act as though there are no concerns with trading for Dubois. While he is a skilled forward, one the Canadiens could certainly find a use for, the price must be reasonable in trade and contract negotiations. The Jets can ask, but the Habs will not be giving up the 5th overall pick or Kirby Dach or anyone else they view as a building block for the future. But it will take something significant, especially if the Canadiens are not the only team looking to add him.

The Canadiens are not exactly in the position where they need to be trading young talent for proven players just yet. I like Dubois, but we’re not talking about a 100-point player or even a 40-goal scorer. Now factor in that after you trade for Dubois, you’ll need to give him a contract, which can only be signed July 1st at the earliest. What if he wants an absurd amount of money, a number the Canadiens just don’t want to meet? Does he go to the open market, making the trade a waste of assets? Before you trade for him, you need some kind of assurance it’s worth it.

The other concern? This would be the third team Dubois has joined before even hitting free agency, seemingly forcing his way out of the previous two teams, if he does leave Winnipeg for Montreal. How can you be sure Montreal will be any different? Winnipeg may not be the easiest place to play, but it’s a walk in the park compared to Montreal, especially for a French star like Dubois. The spotlight will be on him from day one, and it will only burn brighter if he struggles; just ask Jonathan Drouin. Can Kent Hughes be sure he’ll want to be here when the going gets tough? You don’t want to acquire this version of Dubois: