Canadiens: What’s at Stake in the Toronto vs Florida Matchup
By Ryan Praught
The Montreal Canadiens may have missed the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean Canadiens fans have nothing to watch for. Right now, the Canadiens have two first-round draft picks heading into the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, but where those picks will end up remains to be determined. The NHL Draft Lottery is on May 8th, and that will determine where the Canadiens’ own first-round pick ends up. But the second first-rounder will be determined later.
As part of the trade that sent Ben Chiarot to the Florida Panthers for the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Canadiens received the Panthers’ 2023 first-round pick. For a while, it looked as though that pick could’ve ended up a lottery pick, with a chance of even becoming Connor Bedard. But once the Panthers made the playoffs, that dream died. So instead, that pick is locked in for 17th overall, which is still really good value, as long as the Panthers lose in one of the first two rounds.
Full trade:
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) March 17, 2022
To #FlaPanthers: Ben Chiarot
To #Habs: 2023 1st round pick, 2022 4th round pick, prospect Ty Smilanic
MTL is retaining half of Chiarot’s salary.
Naturally, you would expect the historically good Boston Bruins to take care of the Panthers and do the Canadiens a favour. And when the Bruins went up 3-1 in the series, it appeared as though Canadiens fans would get their wish. Instead, the Bruins blew it, and the Panthers moved on. Now, Florida will play yet another arch-rival of the Canadiens, causing some fans to have to make a tough decision. Do we root for a better draft pick, or are some rivalries just too tough to look past?
What’s at Stake?
No playoff team had fewer points in the regular season than the Florida Panthers, and based on the NHL’s rules, that means they pick 17th as long as they lose in either of the first two rounds. But things dramatically change if the Panthers advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. In that scenario, the pick drops 12 spots to 29th, and if the Panthers make the Stanley Cup Finals, the selection drops to #31 if they lose and #32 if they win the whole thing.
In other words, the only real positive to the Panthers winning would be that the Maple Leafs lose, which I’m sure Habs fans would find joy in. But the Panthers winning actively hurts the Canadiens, dropping at least 12 spots in the draft, which could be significant for several reasons. However, the only downside of the Panthers losing is the Habs fans having to watch one of their bitter rivals continue a potential cup run. That might sting a little, but I’d have to imagine dropping 12 spots in the draft would hurt more. I know it would for me, and I suspect Kent Hughes is thinking the same thing.
Now the drop of 12 spots from the middle to the end of the first round isn’t the end of the world, but it is significant enough that it may change things. Perhaps players you once hoped would be available at 17 are now out of the question at 29. My question is, would other teams see it that way as well. For instance, Dubois has long been rumored to join the Canadiens at some point, with some even suggesting it could happen this off-season.
Montreal has also discussed the possibility of making another Kirby Dach-like trade in which they move a first-rounder for a young promising player who can help them now. Pick #17 might help them do that if they wanted to, but pick #29 might not. This is all speculation, but the point is the same every time. No good comes from the Panthers winning and hurting the draft selection. The Habs may not be playing, but they still have a reason to tune in, even if it means cheering for the Leafs.
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