The Montreal Canadiens still have a little business to take care of before the 2022-23 season begins. Kirby Dach needs a new contract and Cayden Primeau also needs to sign a new deal before they can join the rest of the team at training camp.
Those contracts are likely going to look pretty minuscule when stacked up next to Cole Caufield’s eventual extension. The Habs sniper is signed for one more season under his entry-level contract, but he is already eligible to sign an extension that will begin in the 2023-24 season.
What will that extension look like? Caufield has an interesting track record right now for a young NHL player. He finished his second college season in the spring of 2020, signed his entry-level contract and joined the Laval Rocket. He scored four points in just two games before being called up to the NHL.
He closed out that season by scoring four goals and five points in ten regular season games, and became a first line winger in the postseason, helping the Canadiens make a run to the Stanley Cup Final.
Then came this season. Caufield was the favourite to win the Calder Trophy, but started the season with just one goal and eight points in 30 games. Then he was sent down to the AHL for a couple games, Martin St. Louis was hired, and Caufield was brought back up and finished the season with 22 goals and 35 points in his last 37 NHL games.
So, he essentially played the first half of his first full NHL season at a 22 point pace, and he played the second half like a 49 goal and 78 point scorer. He has done enough in his hockey career, not just NHL career, to show he is likely to be a very good top six winger and maybe even an elite goal scorer for the Canadiens.
But he also doesn’t have much of a track record at the NHL level. Being great for 37 games isn’t easy, but does it prove he is an elite winger now? If the Canadiens aren’t sure, they aren’t going to get him to sign long term right now. If they are willing to gamble on his talent and offer a long term contract, it will have to be with the second half of his season in mind, or he just won’t sign.
What kind of contract would Caufield be willing to sign right now?
Joel Farabee signed a contract extension with the Philadelphia Flyers last summer with a somewhat similar track record to Caufield. At that point, Farabee had scored 59 points in 107 career NHL games, including 20 goals in 55 games in 2020-21.
Caufield’s points per game is slightly higher right now, and he also had that elite run for 37 games to close out last season. So, the Canadiens winger would be looking for more than Farabee’s seven year contract with a cap hit of $5 million.
Josh Norris just signed a big extension with the Ottawa Senators. He has 90 points in 125 career NHL games, giving him a 0.72 points per game clip while Caufield is at 0.62. Norris also plays centre which is a more premium position and scored 35 goals in 66 games last season, meaning he is a little more “proven” than Caufield.
Norris signed an eight year contract with a cap hit of $7.95 million just last week. Since he has shown his offensive ability over a slightly longer period of time, and plays centre, his contract would be a little more than Caufield could ask for today.
Perhaps the closest comparable for Caufield is his centre, Nick Suzuki. He was extended last October after scoring 41 points in 56 regular season games and leading the team with seven goals and 16 points in 21 playoff games. So, Suzuki ended his season hot like Caufield has, but did so in the postseason.
Suzuki then signed an eight year contract with a cap hit of $7.875 million. Again, Suzuki plays centre which might give him a little extra money and he is a key penalty killer while Caufield doesn’t step on the ice when the team is shorthanded. So, Caufield would be looking at a little less than Suzuki as well.
That should put Caufield’s current value around $7 million on a long term extension of seven or eight years. The Canadiens have plenty of time, since the 21 year old winger is signed for next season already.
But if they want to lock him up long term, (and why wouldn’t they?) they are looking at a $7 million commitment per season for the next seven or eight years.
Want your voice heard? Join the A Winning Habit team!