Montreal Canadiens Roundtable: Which New Player Has Biggest Impact? Who Leads Habs in Points?
Joseph Gentile: The most impactful player for the team this season I think will be Jake Allen. He went 12-6-3 with the Blues last season as a backup, posting a high save percentage (.927) and a low goals against average (2.15) Despite the lower workload, you need to remember that he finished with winning records in all his previous seasons as a starter. Allen has been a perennial starter in this league despite the drop off, mainly due to losing his job to cup champion Binnington.
From a strictly numbers standpoint, the Canadiens backup situation last year was horrendous (Kinkaid, Lindgren, Primeau). Combined they went 4-6-3, the team lost 15 points on nights where Price did not play. That would have put us ahead of Toronto at 86 points and third in our division, likely giving us a legitimate playoff position. I am not saying that Allen would have won all those games (it would have probably been impossible), however you must think he could have won 7-8 of those games given last season’s pace.
Allen likely already has eight starts lined up for him given the team has eight back-to-backs this season. Julien might also look to giving Allen some starts against the lower seeded teams (we are playing the 30th place Senators 8 times this year). That is something we were not able to assume last season given the shaky backup situation, we needed Price to start almost every game to even give us a chance at winning.
Ken MacMillan: I think Joel Edmundson will play the most minutes, and Tyler Toffoli might have the most points but it will be Josh Anderson who has the biggest impact among the newcomers. Anderon’s impact won’t just be measured in goals and points, but it will be his ability to free up space for skilled, but much smaller, linemates Nick Suzuki and Jonathan Drouin. Don’t be surprised if Anderson has a solid season, but the two players on the ice with him look much better than they did last season.
2) Where do you think the Canadiens finish in the regular season standings in the Canadian Division?
Scott Cowan: The NHL’s decision to go with an all-Canadian division was an interesting one, albeit one done out of necessity. Despite this, it will still be a competitive division, with many Canadian teams now possessing talented rosters with viable Stanley Cup aspirations.
The Edmonton Oilers possess two of the NHL’s game-breaking stars in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, less than ideal goaltending aside. The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to bolster their top ranked offense and have somewhat answered their depth issues with the signing of veterans like Joe Thornton.
The Canadian division is a talented one, and one I feel that Habs will be able to put up a good fight in. Despite this, I still see them sitting somewhere in the middle of the pack, having a roster that, in my opinion, is something of a middle ground between teams like the Leafs and the Ottawa Senators. Should any of these teams endure a rough start to the season however, look for the Canadiens to jump higher in the standings, as, in my opinion, with this roster, anything is possible.
Teddy Elliott: I believe that the Habs will make the playoffs but will be third in the Canadian Division behind Toronto and Winnipeg. Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton might push them for that third place spot but the Habs have more depth at all positions than any of those teams. This season is going to be weird and we shouldn’t be shocked if there are many many roster changes considering the state of the world. Depth will be crucial and the Habs have it in spades.
Joseph Gentile: Bergevin made a lot of moves this offseason that suggests the team will be much better than the one we saw in the regular season and playoff bubble. They got bigger, more experienced, and managed to fill out the back end and backup goalie positions.
It’s interesting to note that Montreal went 10-1-4 (reference Matthew Candy’s article from December 2020) last season against all Canadian teams. Of course, this is a different season with different circumstances, but it shows that Montreal knows how to play against these teams and know how to beat them.
Despite all the positives, I still always prefer to err on the side of caution. To be realistic, Toronto’s forward line of Tavares, Marner, Matthews, and Nylander proves to be one of if not the best in Canada.
Vancouver was impressive during this year’s bubble. The young kids showed up to play, while Hughes is proving that he can be one of the best defensemen in this league. With the addition of Nate Schmidt and the continuous development of Boeser and Pettersson, I only see the Canucks getting better from here.
Calgary’s offence still remains rather formidable with their stars in Tkachuk, Monahan, and Gaudreau. They got better in net by signing Markstrom and still have their captain and one of the NHLs best defenseman in Mark Giordano.
I will say that the Canadiens will most likely make the playoffs, finishing in fourth place. When push comes to shove, the Leafs will likely look to be the juggernauts in the North division, with the Flames and probably Canucks following suit. The Habs will be fighting for that fourth and final playoff spot.
3) Will Phillip Danault and/or Tomas Tatar sign extensions this season?
Scott Cowan: Tomas Tatar and Phillip Danault have been, without doubt, two of the more enigmatic players for the Canadiens over the course of this past off-season, with their future in question as both player’s contracts are set to expire. Danault has gone from being an ongoing project and former first round pick for the Chicago Blackhawks, to one of the NHL’s better defensive forwards and a consistent 40 if not 50-point player in Montreal. His evolvement from a role player into one of the team’s more reliable offensive options has been impressive to say the least, and I think its clear he’s deserving of a pay-raise.
Tatar has gone from being a throw-in in the Max Pacioretty trade to the Vegas Golden Knights, to, in my opinion, the Canadiens best player last season, having played at a scorching pace with 61 points over 68 games. Disappearance in the post-season aside, both Tatar and Danault are key parts of the Canadiens lineup, though its debatable whether one or the other signs an extension.
Tatar’s past history as trade deadline bait has Habs fan questioning his value and what the Canadiens could get in return, similar to Danault’s comparisons to high-ranking defensive forwards like Jean-Gabriel Pageau. While its not for certain that the Habs will be able to get a lot for either of the two, I think their performance in this season will definitely play a part in determining who stays and who goes. In my mind, if they miss the playoffs, I see Tatar leaving, though it remains to be seen.
Teddy Elliott: It all depends on what the cap situation is after this season is over. With the NHL set to lose close to $1 billion in revenue, the Habs might simply not have enough cap space to sign both Philip Danault and Tomas Tatar. If there is enough room, however, Danault should be signed over Tatar every single time. Despite his own misgivings about being pushed down the lineup, Danault won’t be a Top 6 centreman on any team at this point in his career and should definitely stay in Montreal.
Joseph Gentile: Tatar was our leading scorer last season and second leading the year before. He also reached career highs for points the last two seasons. Tatar is on the last year of his four-year, 5.3-million-dollar cap hit contract that he signed with Detroit in 2018, where he put up numbers nowhere close to what he has produced in Montreal. I think it is safe to say he is due for a pay raise, and the Canadiens might not be the team able to give him that. The team is currently close to the ceiling and even with expiring contracts in Armia and possibly Lehkonen, the Habs need to sign Kotkaniemi and Suzuki in the future. However, it would be interesting to see if the Canadiens lose a big contract for free in the Seattle expansion draft this summer.
Danault has proven himself to be one of the league’s top two-way centers, ranking sixth in this year’s Selke Trophy votes. This season, he posted a team-leading +18, which ranked 28th
overall in the league. He led the team in short-handed ice time for forwards with 2:31 minutes/game. He boasted a 54.5 faceoff percentage, being Julien’s go-to guy during defensive zone faceoffs. One downside from his play is that he has amassed only 50 goals in 339 career games played. Even though he compensates with his defensive and passing ability, it is a glaring issue in his game.
Danault has expressed that he feels he is more than a third liner as he saw his role change back in the playoff bubble. If Montreal decides to go down that path, he might want out. However, with the way Claude Julien has made his lines this training camp, Danault is on the first line and does not seem like he will be losing any minutes to Suzuki or Kotkaniemi for now.
For what Montreal should do, I think the smartest move will be to re-sign Danault and let Tatar walk. Danault is the reason why they are involved in most games as he can play a stellar 200-foot game. He could be best played at third (unless Kotkaniemi’s bubble performance was only a blip in his career), being able to counter big lines and play in situation where we need to hold a lead. He will probably end up being one of the highest paid third liners in the league, but it will be a luxury to have and should payoff long term for the team.
Ken MacMillan: Both players play a huge role on the team currently, but this team will go as far as Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi can take them. That’s this season and in the future. We have seen this team miss the playoffs year after year with Danault as their first line centre. If he is willing to signed for $4 million per year to play on the third line, then I’d say keep him. But Danault wants to keep his role as a first line centre and be paid accordingly, but he just isn’t worth first line money. I don’t think he gets signed, simply because he will want too much money.
Tatar has been the team’s top scorer since he arrived in town. The Habs don’t have a ton of prospects on left wing that look like top six forwards, but Tatar definitely is and they should try to keep him around for a few more years. Tatar loves Montreal and after a terrible time in Vegas, he will be more willing to stay where he is comfortable than Danault and I think Tatar eventually signs a three or four year contract extension.
4) Who leads the Canadiens in points this season and how many points will they score in a shortened 56 game schedule?
Scott Cowan: Tatar’s frenzied pace over the course of last season has me thinking he will be the Canadiens top scorer once more, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll play at a pace similar to these past two seasons or revert back to the struggles of his 2017-18 season, where he established career lows in points. Should this happen, the consistency of Brendan Gallagher and Toffoli could lead to either of them leading the Habs in scoring, similar to the lost 2017-18 season for the team, which was a revival for Gallagher.
With all the weapons the Habs currently possess across their lineup, any one of both their previous top players or their new additions could surprise people and put up some solid numbers. Such was the case with Tatar and Max Domi in 2018-19, and we could see the same from guys like Josh Anderson, possibly even surpassing his, as mentioned, career high of 47 points.
Teddy Elliott: I might eat my words on this one, but I believe Jonathan Drouin will have a marquee year flanking Nick Suzuki and Josh Anderson. Drouin is capable of producing points on a massive scale and finally has linemates who can dish him the puck and clear space for him on the ice. My prediction is that he will lead the team with 49 points – 20 goals and 29 assists.
Joseph Gentile: Suzuki needs to be the team’s star whom they build around. He must be the guy that makes his line mates better, and he has already done that with Drouin. Anderson will only add more fuel to the fire. Suzuki’s regular season performance was impressive, and more so was his bubble performance. All this as a rookie to boot.
In a regular 82-game season, I would put Suzuki at 50-60 points given the experience and more ice-time. In a 56-game season however I will give him between 35 and 40 points. For an exact number, give him 38 points. With that said, I believe he has the most points on the team this year. Call it bold, but I have faith in this kid.
Next. Rankings goaltending tandems in Canadian Division. dark
Ken MacMillan: I think Drouin finally puts it all together and is terrific in his new position down low with the man advantage. Remember Saku Koivu along the goal line setting up Michael Ryder and Andrei Markov and also banging in the odd rebound on the power play? That will be Drouin this season down low finding Shea Weber cross-ice and getting the puck to Tyler Toffoli in the slot for one-timers. Also, with Josh Anderson on his line at even strength, Drouin won’t have to do much heavy lifting along the boards and in the corners and has the crafty Suzuki to set him up.