Would a Domi-Ehlers Trade Make Sense for Both the Habs and the Jets?

It is quite possible that Max Domi has played his final game as a member of the Montreal Canadiens; with this in mind, a deal built around Domi and Nikolaj Ehlers could benefit everyone involved.

Before we dive into player comparisons and other pieces that could be part of a trade between the Canadiens and the Jets, it is important to take a look at why Max Domi may have one foot out the door of Montreal already.

Domi excels when playing down the middle; he is far more effective at centre than he is on the wing, as his 72-point campaign a year ago demonstrated. And Domi is a top-6 forward, a third-line role does not suit his skillset; while he is dynamic offensively, he is far from the best two-way centre in the game. In short, Domi is at his best when centring an offensively-geared top-6 line.

This is a role he was given in Montreal in 2018-19 when Jonathan Drouin and Andrew Shaw were his most regular wingers, and Max Domi thrived, scoring 28 goals and 72 points; the highest point-total by a Hab since 2007-08 when Alexei Kovalev had 84. So when placed in the right situation, Domi can produce.

However, with the emergence of Nick Suzuki throughout the 2019-20 season and of Jesperi Kotkaniemi in the postseason, even Phillip Danault, who was a shoo-in at 1C for the Habs for three seasons, got bumped down to the third line as the postseason progressed. While Danault is tailor-made for a 3rd-line role with a heap of penalty-killing minutes and some time on the Power Play, Domi is not, making him the odd man out. Furthermore, Domi is also an RFA this offseason and could demand a hefty contract, which Montreal may not be willing to pay.

The two players are in two very different contractual situations. Domi is a restricted free agent, while Ehlers is locked up for another 5 seasons at a $6 million cap hit. Domi is also 9 months older than Ehlers, though both players have played in 5 NHL seasons. Domi has played in 375 games and Ehlers in 369; in those games, Ehlers has scored 6 more points and 34 more goals.

Between these two players, Domi is the playmaker and Ehlers the goalscorer. Over the past three seasons, Domi has played in 235 games, while Ehlers has participated in 215. Over that span, Domi has put up 38 goals and 72 assists for 110 points (0.16 goals per game, 0.31 assists per game and 0.47 points per game). Ehlers, for his part, recorded 51 goals, 61 assists and 112 points (0.24 GPG, 0.28 APG and 0.52 PPG).

Interestingly, Ehlers played very well in 2017-18 and in 2019-20, while slumping in 2018-19, while Domi was excellent in 2018-19 and was more disappointing in the year preceding and following his breakout campaign. Despite their points totals being extremely close over the past three years, and in their entire careers, the argument can be made that Domi’s numbers are simply inflated from that one great season, while Ehlers’ are brought down by his one poor season.

Throughout Domi’s career, he has posted 52, 38 (in 59 games), 45, 72 and 44 points. The outlier amongst these five seasons is, unfortunately, the 72-point season. Ehlers, for his part, has put up 38, 64, 60, 37 (in 62 games) and 58 points. His outlier seems to be the 37-point season as the other seasons show that he is good for around 60 points. And it should be mentioned that Ehlers has scored at least 20 goals in each of the past 4 seasons, netting as many as 29 in 2017-18. Domi, on the other hand, has only hit 20 once and double digits three times in his five seasons.

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In terms of possession metrics, the two players have performed pretty similarly. In the past three seasons, Domi’s team has controlled 50.38% of the shot attempts, 50.57% of the expected goals, 50.39% of the high danger chances and scored 53.67% of the goals when he has been on the ice at even strength. Over the same period of time, with Ehlers on the ice at even strength, the Jets have controlled 53.35% of the shot attempts, 50.27% of the expected goals, 47% of the high danger scoring chances and 54.3% of the goals.

Ehlers’ high-danger opportunity percentage of 47 is really not great, but he maintained an excellent goal-share, which is, of course, more important. It does, however, speak to the quality of goaltending the Jets have received from Connor Hellebuyck.

One big difference between the two is their performance this past season, in which Domi struggled, and Ehlers excelled. Domi scored 17 goals and 44 points, while Ehlers had 25 goals and 58 points, both in 71 games played.

Comparing the trade values of the two players is a little bit difficult since Domi plays a more valuable position and has had the best single-season performance between the two players, which was recently, too, while Ehlers scores more goals and is more consistent. It can be deduced that Ehlers has a higher floor than Domi, but a lower ceiling. Still, consistent production from a 24-year-old is very valuable.

Given that Montreal will be dealing from a position of greater weakness, given that they have a more pressing need to move Domi, that Domi remains an RFA and that Domi is coming off a significantly worse season than Ehlers, I believe that the Habs will have to sweeten the pot in the trade, despite Domi being a centreman and Ehlers, a winger.

I could see the Habs adding Cale Fleury since he will be valued by the Jets, who, as was previously mentioned, have a need at right defence. While Fleury is a nice piece for the Canadiens, he is an expendable one, with Noah Juulsen and Josh Brook in the pipeline. Cale Fleury is my favourite of the three and is the surest bet to help the Jets next season amongst those three, which is why they would want him.

I would also see the Canadiens sending back a small contract in the trade, just to free up a little bit more space in this new flat-cap era; I could see that player being Jordan Weal, who has a season remaining at $1.4 million and is unlikely to crack the Canadiens’ lineup next season.

I really think that this is a win-win trade for the two teams. Winnipeg will get their sought-after second-line centre who may very well produce an incredible amount of points when paired with a natural goalscorer in Patrik Laine; and will bolster the right side of their defence not only for the future of their organization but for its present as well.

Montreal, for its part, will acquire a left-winger who can also play on the right side and who not only scores goals but is a consistent performer. At just 24, Nikolaj Ehlers would have the opportunity to become a core piece of the Canadiens for the next decade, and with great playmakers in Kotkaniemi and Suzuki as his potential centremen, his goal totals may even reach the thirties.

In two years’ time, the Canadiens’ top-9 may look like something like:

Drouin-Suzuki-Caufield

Ehlers-Kotkaniemi-Gallagher

Lehkonen-Danault-Armia

Not half bad…

All statistics are sourced from NaturalStatTrick.com.