Would a Domi-Ehlers Trade Make Sense for Both the Habs and the Jets?
The two players are in two very different contractual situations. Domi is a restricted free agent, while Ehlers is locked up for another 5 seasons at a $6 million cap hit. Domi is also 9 months older than Ehlers, though both players have played in 5 NHL seasons. Domi has played in 375 games and Ehlers in 369; in those games, Ehlers has scored 6 more points and 34 more goals.
Between these two players, Domi is the playmaker and Ehlers the goalscorer. Over the past three seasons, Domi has played in 235 games, while Ehlers has participated in 215. Over that span, Domi has put up 38 goals and 72 assists for 110 points (0.16 goals per game, 0.31 assists per game and 0.47 points per game). Ehlers, for his part, recorded 51 goals, 61 assists and 112 points (0.24 GPG, 0.28 APG and 0.52 PPG).
Interestingly, Ehlers played very well in 2017-18 and in 2019-20, while slumping in 2018-19, while Domi was excellent in 2018-19 and was more disappointing in the year preceding and following his breakout campaign. Despite their points totals being extremely close over the past three years, and in their entire careers, the argument can be made that Domi’s numbers are simply inflated from that one great season, while Ehlers’ are brought down by his one poor season.
Throughout Domi’s career, he has posted 52, 38 (in 59 games), 45, 72 and 44 points. The outlier amongst these five seasons is, unfortunately, the 72-point season. Ehlers, for his part, has put up 38, 64, 60, 37 (in 62 games) and 58 points. His outlier seems to be the 37-point season as the other seasons show that he is good for around 60 points. And it should be mentioned that Ehlers has scored at least 20 goals in each of the past 4 seasons, netting as many as 29 in 2017-18. Domi, on the other hand, has only hit 20 once and double digits three times in his five seasons.
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In terms of possession metrics, the two players have performed pretty similarly. In the past three seasons, Domi’s team has controlled 50.38% of the shot attempts, 50.57% of the expected goals, 50.39% of the high danger chances and scored 53.67% of the goals when he has been on the ice at even strength. Over the same period of time, with Ehlers on the ice at even strength, the Jets have controlled 53.35% of the shot attempts, 50.27% of the expected goals, 47% of the high danger scoring chances and 54.3% of the goals.
Ehlers’ high-danger opportunity percentage of 47 is really not great, but he maintained an excellent goal-share, which is, of course, more important. It does, however, speak to the quality of goaltending the Jets have received from Connor Hellebuyck.
One big difference between the two is their performance this past season, in which Domi struggled, and Ehlers excelled. Domi scored 17 goals and 44 points, while Ehlers had 25 goals and 58 points, both in 71 games played.
Comparing the trade values of the two players is a little bit difficult since Domi plays a more valuable position and has had the best single-season performance between the two players, which was recently, too, while Ehlers scores more goals and is more consistent. It can be deduced that Ehlers has a higher floor than Domi, but a lower ceiling. Still, consistent production from a 24-year-old is very valuable.