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Comparing Anton Lundell and Jesperi Kotkaniemi

By Sebastian High

VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 5: Anton Lundell #29 of Finland with the championship trophy after defeating the United States in the Gold Medal game of the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship on January, 5, 2019 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images)
VANCOUVER, BC - JANUARY 5: Anton Lundell #29 of Finland with the championship trophy after defeating the United States in the Gold Medal game of the 2019 IIHF World Junior Championship on January, 5, 2019 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (Photo by Rich Lam/Getty Images) /
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Montreal Canadiens, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Anton Lundell
MONTREAL, QC – MARCH 21: Montreal Canadiens Jesperi Kotkaniemi Anton Lundell (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

I wonder what the consensus among fans and pro scouts is concerning Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s offensive ceiling. In my opinion, if everything pans out for the young centreman, he could produce just upward of 70 points on a good team with powerplay time, and I will guess most will agree that he could produce somewhere in the range of 60 to 82 points in his prime. This represents a decently high offensive ceiling, one that, according to the media, is not shared by Anton Lundell.

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This is curious to me, since, on the surface, Anton Lundell’s draft year has been more productive in Liiga than Kotkaniemi’s was, with the former registering 10 goals and 18 assists for 28 points through 44 games in what has already been his second season of professional hockey. Kotkaniemi also scored 10 goals, adding 19 assists in the season leading up to his draft, but took 57 games to do so; furthermore, he put up a solitary assist through seven playoff appearances.

Also of note, in 2017-18, Kotkaniemi’s Ässät Pori finished 8th in the league of 15 teams, while Lundell’s IFK Helsinki placed 6th when the season was suspended this year and finished 6th last season as well, so neither player’s stats were inflated or blunted by exceptional or horrid teams.

One crucial thing to consider when comparing the performances of these two players is that Kotkaniemi was drafted as a 17-year-old, turning 18 on July 6 following the draft. In contrast, Lundell turned 18 back on October 3. This means that heading into their respective drafts, Lundell is just over 9 months older than Kotkaniemi was. This also explains why Lundell has one more pro season under his belt than the 2018 3rd overall pick did.

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