Comparing Anton Lundell and Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Anton Lundell’s frame, production and potential are all reminiscent of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and the Montreal Canadiens should look to him at the 2020 NHL Draft.
One of the biggest stories heading into the 2018 NHL Entry Draft was what route the Montreal Canadiens would take with their third overall selection. Many rumours stated that Marc Bergevin would reach for Jesperi Kotkaniemi or possibly even trade down in the hope of still selecting the Finn, who was ranked anywhere between fifth and fifteenth, heading into the draft. Others pegged the Habs to select Brady Tkachuk, while the majority saw them picking talented winger Filip Zadina out of Halifax despite their need at centre ice.
As things eventually transpired, the Canadiens ended up with the 6’2″, 190-pound Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who suffered a sophomore slump after a surprisingly good rookie season as the youngest player in the league. The Finnish centreman is still just 19 years of age and has a bright future ahead of him.
The biggest story heading into the 2020 NHL Entry Draft is not that of Quebecois phenom Alexis Lafreniere, nor that of hulking 17-year-old centreman Quintin Byfield, it is one of utter uncertainty. With the month of May already half passed, it is unclear to virtually everyone how the order of selections will be decided as well as whether or not playoffs will occur, and if they do, how many teams will be included. Perhaps the Habs qualify for the playoffs if the 24 team format is decided upon, which may result in the Canadiens selecting in the teens rather than eighth overall. The lack of clarity is absolute.
This being said, there do exist many interesting storylines surrounding this year’s draft that are well worth following. One that caught my eye a few months ago, before the grinding halt of the sporting world, is that of Anton Lundell. The 6’1″, 187-pound Finnish centreman bears resemblances to his countryman who was selected by the Montreal Canadiens just two years ago.
While Kotkaniemi was selected far earlier than most projected him to be, Lundell will, in all likelihood, not face the same outcome since centremen Quinton Byfield, Marco Rossi and Cole Perfetti are all ranked a few slots above him according to most outlets, and all have higher offensive ceilings. Despite this, Lundell is virtually a lock to be taken once the 15th pick rolls around and could very well be a top-10 selection.
I wonder what the consensus among fans and pro scouts is concerning Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s offensive ceiling. In my opinion, if everything pans out for the young centreman, he could produce just upward of 70 points on a good team with powerplay time, and I will guess most will agree that he could produce somewhere in the range of 60 to 82 points in his prime. This represents a decently high offensive ceiling, one that, according to the media, is not shared by Anton Lundell.
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This is curious to me, since, on the surface, Anton Lundell’s draft year has been more productive in Liiga than Kotkaniemi’s was, with the former registering 10 goals and 18 assists for 28 points through 44 games in what has already been his second season of professional hockey. Kotkaniemi also scored 10 goals, adding 19 assists in the season leading up to his draft, but took 57 games to do so; furthermore, he put up a solitary assist through seven playoff appearances.
Also of note, in 2017-18, Kotkaniemi’s Ässät Pori finished 8th in the league of 15 teams, while Lundell’s IFK Helsinki placed 6th when the season was suspended this year and finished 6th last season as well, so neither player’s stats were inflated or blunted by exceptional or horrid teams.
One crucial thing to consider when comparing the performances of these two players is that Kotkaniemi was drafted as a 17-year-old, turning 18 on July 6 following the draft. In contrast, Lundell turned 18 back on October 3. This means that heading into their respective drafts, Lundell is just over 9 months older than Kotkaniemi was. This also explains why Lundell has one more pro season under his belt than the 2018 3rd overall pick did.
However, Lundell has, over the past two seasons, accumulated 19 goals and 28 assists for 47 points through 82 professional games as a 17 and 18-year-old, not bad at all. This means that he tallied 0.573 PPG in two Liiga seasons, while Kotkaniemi put up 0.509 in just one season. I am not trying to argue that Lundell has a higher ceiling offensively than Kotkaniemi, or vice-versa. My argument is that the offensive side of Lundell’s game has been underappreciated and that his portrayal as a player who can rise no higher than a second-line player in the NHL is unfair.
Lundell seems to have a very similar upside on the offensive side of the ice to Jesperi Kotkaniemi, with the sole exception of a less lethal shot. However, his skating is more refined, and his defensive play is leaps and bounds ahead of where Kotkaniemi’s was as a draftee. The nine-month age difference does carry weight, but it does not eliminate the potential that Lundell possesses, which, if everything in his development goes right, could resemble a Ryan O’Reilly.
That is to say, a fairly big player who performs when it matters is very strong defensively and can contribute significantly offensively. Lundell is a player who will come top-3 in Selke voting at least once in his career if you ask me and may very well be a perennial contender for the award.
The similarities between these two players are abundant, and I believe Lundell could be a real steal in the 10-15 range of the NHL draft. I will personally have my eye on Marco Rossi, Lucas Raymond and Cole Perfetti in particular if the Habs do end up with the eighth overall selection.
Next. What if Mats Sundin signed in Montreal. dark
However, Anton Lundell would be a fascinating selection, and his development alongside that of his Finnish countryman could result in gifting the Montreal Canadiens with one of the league’s most lethal 1, 2, 3 punches at centre ice in a few years’ time when you add Nick Suzuki to the mix.