Montreal Canadiens: Re-evaluating the odds to make the playoffs

The Montreal Canadiens making the playoffs was set to be a difficult but possibly do-able task. Now, it seems like there’s no chance they can do it.

After having their worst start to the regular season in three years, the Montreal Canadiens had a steep hill to climb. They had two things going for them at the time. Firstly, that the team couldn’t be as bad as their record and secondly, that they had a lot of games to turn it around. It also helped that the Habs were in the weakest division in the league and with a string of wings, could find themselves in the playoff hunt again.

Fast forward to the present day, and those same two things are long gone. Carey Price and Alex Galchenyuk managed to turn their seasons around after their poor starts. However, the majority of the players who were struggling then are still struggling now.

Whatever adjustments Max Pacioretty has done to his game has taken away offensive ability. What’s tough for fans – and most likely Pacioretty himself – is that he’s been getting chances but can’t seem to get any luck. He’s been robbed by a handful of goalies, most recently Anders Nilsson and Cam Ward.

The numbers suggest that he’s performing well beneath his threshold. Pacioretty is currently shooting at 5.6% and considering his average is around 11%, it’s only a matter of time before it gets corrected.

The thing is though; we’ve been saying the same thing about a lot of elements of this team. “The goals will come,” “They just need a break,” ” It’s not too late for them to heat up.” Now the word ‘playoffs’ seems to be a mystical power that you can only obtain through years of training.

Can They Do It?

One of our contributors Kamal Rehman had a great breakdown of what the Habs would have to do to make the playoffs.

The team at the time was playing .181 hockey and were on pace for a 31-point season.

Again, there was no way Montreal will play that poorly for the rest of the year. Considering last year’s cutoff to make the playoffs was 95 points, the Habs would’ve had to play .622 hockey (assuming the minimum point total remained the same).

Their point percentage has improved, but they remain below .500 (playing at .474) with 44 games left in the season. To get to 95 points, the Habs will have to get another 59 in that remaining stretch. Using some more math, that’s .670 hockey, a greater pace than what they had to face at the beginning of the season.