The date was June 29, 2016, when Montreal Canadiens general manager at the time, Marc Bergevin, made a decision that drastically shifted the team's outlook and subsequently left the city of Montreal stunned. That day, the Canadiens traded P.K. Subban to the Nashville Predators in exchange for Shea Weber.
The trade that sent Subban to the Predators sent fans into a frenzy, leaving some excited about the acquisition of Weber, a stoic defender who made his impact felt on the defensive end. On the other hand, many fans were left disappointed and upset that their electrifying Norris trophy-winning defenseman was no longer in Montreal.
In his seven seasons with the Canadiens, Subban won the hearts of fans all across Montreal with his fast-paced play and elite offensive ability. So what if the Habs never traded the fan favourite? Would Subban become a legend in Montreal and stay to see his number 76 be lifted to the rafters? Or would the magical Stanley Cup Finals run in 2021 fail to come to fruition without Weber?
What if the Canadiens never traded P.K. Subban?
Let's break down this hypothetical situation year by year, beginning with 2017, Subban's first season with the Predators, and up until the completion of the 2022 season, when he announced his retirement.
2016 - 2017
This was Subban's first season with the Predators, who went on to the Stanley Cup Finals before falling to Sidney Crosby's Penguins.
Entering his eighth season in the NHL, Subban was coming off a solid season that saw him record 51 points in 68 games. He was still going strong but nearing the end of his prime. Regression hit Subban in his first season with the Predators, as he tallied 40 points over 66 games, his lowest point total since 2013. It is safe to assume that his first season with a new team can be partially blamed for his underwhelming season.
Subban remains a core focus of the Canadiens' blueline alongside Markov and Petry. Thanks to the pair's defensive nature, Subban can continue to take liberties on offence. Subban doesn't miss a beat and records 56 points while the Canadiens still finish atop the Atlantic division.
Come postseason time, the Canadiens struggled mightily to find offence without Subban in their 4-2 series loss to the Rangers, scoring only 11 goals across the six games. With Subban still in the fold, the offence is much improved, and the Canadiens are able to avoid the upset and get past Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers. In the second round, the Ottawa Senators remain too hot a team and end the Canadiens' season. Would Subban have extended the Canadiens' playoff run if he had never been dealt?
2017 - 2018
Subban had a great year in 2018, proving he was still very much in the thick of his prime. 2018 was the only season in his career in which he played in all 82 games. Subban recorded a career high 59 points with the Predators and just fell short of his second Norris Trophy, finishing third in voting.
The Canadiens struggled this season, failing to make the playoffs and winning just 29 games, while Weber dealt with injuries and only played in 26 games.
Assuming Subban remains a Habs player, his stats likely look the same or even slightly better, as the Canadiens' poor play leads to more free will on offence for Subban. With aging forwards struggling to produce, Subban takes the reins and has a career year. Unfortunately, it is doubtful that it helps much in the standings, as the Canadiens still miss the postseason.
Following a poor 2018, the Canadiens head into an important offseason. Should the Habs set into full rebuild mode and move Subban for draft capital? Or would his popularity and elite play remain as a major core piece, one management builds around instead of shipping out for picks?
2018 - 2019
In 2019, the Canadiens leaned into youth and narrowly missed the playoffs. Subban, on the other hand, had a tough year in Nashville, recording just 31 points, the fewest he's ever recorded in a full season. It was clear his decline had hit, and hard.
If Subban had stayed, it is easy to envision a world where he continued his strong play. With the offence in Montreal still lacking, Subban maintained a solid season, leading the blueline and scoring 45 points.
2019 was a shocking postseason in the NHL. The Tampa Bay Lightning were coming off one of the greatest regular seasons of all time, winning 62 of 82 games and tallying 128 points. But they were swept unbelievably by Artemi Panarin and the Columbus Blue Jackets. This is where Subban's presence with the Canadiens could have changed hockey history.
It is not far-fetched to say that if Subban were a Canadien, the team could have found itself in a playoff position, possibly that of the Blue Jackets. Could Subban and the Canadiens have gone on that same magical run the Blue Jackets did? Or would the Lightning have a better matchup against the Canadiens and advance to push for a Stanley Cup?
The Covid season
2019 - 2020
In reality, Subban was traded to the New Jersey Devils following the 2019 season, but what if the defenceman remained with the Canadiens for the rest of his storied career?
The 2020 season was interesting due to COVID shortening it, which is why the league introduced the qualifying rounds before the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Subban's run of elite play was over, and his prime was clearly behind him. The Canadiens were mediocre this year, but with Subban remaining one of the core pieces on the blueline, we can assume both he and the Canadiens would have done slightly better if the two parties remained together.
In this alternate universe, Subban records 25 points, and the Canadiens win 33 games. However, their postseason results remain the same: they lost to the Flyers in six games after their surprising elimination of Crosby's Penguins, in large part due to the outstanding play of Carey Price.
A below-average season for Subban signaled the beginning of the end, and now, with just two years remaining on his contract, Subban prepares for his final couple of seasons in the NHL.
The Habs' run that never was
2020 - 2021
The 2021 season was special for the Canadiens and their fans, one that most have yet to forget. Would the shocking run to the Stanley Cup Finals have happened with Subban in his twelve years instead of Weber and his bruising defensive play?
2021 was Nick Suzki's sophomore season, but his 41 points being the third most on the team was cause for concern. The offence was poor, and the team consistently relied on Price's play in goal. In reality, Weber was the better player this season, making it hard to believe the Canadiens would go on that same magical run without him. Weber was the more impactful player defensively and on offence, recording 19 points, the same as what Subban scored with the Devils during that season.
A massive load of the Canadiens' run was carried on the backs of Price and Weber. That makes Subban's potential impact, who was nearing the end of his career, very little, especially given that it would have been likely to see him play on the bottom pairing.
If Subban had still been a Habs player by 2021 and Weber had not, the Golden Knights would likely have seen the Lightning in the finals, not the Canadiens. Price and Tyler Toffoli's play would still be enough to win the North Division in the postseason. Still, without Weber's dominant shutdown play against the Golden Knights, it seems unlikely that Price would have gotten enough help in front of his net to push the Canadiens through.
Following a heartbreaking loss to the Golden Knights, Subban, who has one final year remaining on his contract, decided that the 2022 season would be his last in the NHL.
One final hoorah!
2021 - 2022
Unfortunately for Subban and the Canadiens, the defenseman's final season was not a good one for either party. The Canadiens struggled in reality following the last full seasons for Price and Weber in professional hockey, as Weber never played again following the Finals run, and Price appeared in just five games across the 2022 season.
In this universe, the Canadiens remain one of the league's worst, but Subban records 30 points on the bottom pairing. The Habs miss the playoffs and set into a rebuild, focusing on the future without Price or Subban. Suzuki has a breakout year, providing hope for fans amid a rough year.
The team rewards Subban for his loyalty, play, and powerful charity work off the ice by retiring his number 76.
Playoff success or a Habs legend?
Subban rides off into the sunset with his jersey hanging from the rafters in the Bell Centre. He goes from being drafted in the second round during the 2007 NHL Draft to a legend in the city of Montreal for the rest of time.
However, was Subban's offensive-minded play style a reason the Canadiens never made the Cup finals? It is likely that if Subban had never been traded, thus staying with the Canadiens for all of his 13 years in the league, the run of 2021 would never have happened.
Would you rather have Subban be a career-long Canadien, see his jersey retired, and his name forever accompanied with joyful memories and nostalgia, or would you rather have Weber and the finals run of 2021? Pick one, because it is unlikely you could have had both.
As electrifying as Subban was, the Canadiens ultimately made the right decision in acquiring Weber. This provided Price with the physical, stabilizing presence he and the Habs needed to make the run of 2021 happen.