It seems almost a certainty at this point that the NHL will be expanding in the next couple of years. Recently, player agent Allan Walsh noted that the two cities likely to be included are Atlanta and Houston.
For the Montreal Canadiens, this means beginning to think about an expansion draft and what players they need to protect. In past expansion drafts, teams have been able to protect 11 players, but there are strict rules that require seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie. The other option is protecting nine players, which is eight skaters regardless of position and one goalie.
Fortunately for the Canadiens, they don't have to protect first- or second-year players, so that means prospects like Michael Hage do not need to be included. However, they automatically need to include any player who has a no-movement clause in their contract. This means that Mike Matheson has to be included, regardless of the format they decide to go with.
The question becomes who the Canadiens would likely be looking to protect and where the toughest decisions would be. To answer this question, let's assume that the expansion draft is at the earliest next summer and in that scenario, these are the players most likely to be protected.
Skaters
Forwards: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Alex Newhook
With the way the roster is currently structured, the Canadiens are more than likely going to go with the eight skaters structure, even though it means fewer players they can protect. Among the forwards, it is a pretty easy decision for the first three they will protect in Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky.
Over the past few seasons, they have made it clear that this is their foundation moving forward, as all three have signed long-term deals. It is also arguably the best young core currently in the NHL.
If the expansion draft is held next summer, they wouldn't have to protect Ivan Demidov as he completed his second professional season. If they go this route, that means the fourth spot would come down to Oliver Kapanen and Alex Newhook. Plenty can change depending on how this season goes, but right now Alex Newhook would probably be the player they keep due to his versatility.
Defense: Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson, Kaiden Guhle
The Canadiens' depth on the blueline is one of the reasons they would elect to go with protecting eight skaters. Even the chance to protect more defensemen still doesn't protect them from potentially losing key parts of their defense.
Mike Matheson automatically gets a spot on the protection list because of his no-movement clause. After that, Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson are two obvious picks for the Canadiens to protect, as they are their two best defensemen on the roster.
The fourth spot is a little bit up for grabs depending on how this season plays out. Right now, it would be Kaiden Guhle, which would leave Adam Engstrom unprotected, as David Reinbacher could still automatically be exempt, as he just completed his second year.
Goalie
Goalie: Jakub Dobes
If the expansion draft is next summer, the decision for the Montreal Canadiens is an easy one as Jacob Fowler would be automatically exempt. However, if it is held in 2028, then they would need to pick between Dobes and Fowler, as they are only able to protect one goalie regardless of the structure they pick.
Dobes is coming off an excellent season, but Fowler has probably the higher ceiling. The good news is that two seasons from now, the Canadiens would have a better idea if Fowler is actually able to reach that ceiling.
The Montreal Canadiens are one of the best young teams in the NHL and have been set up for long-term success. However, they are also in a position where they can probably protect most of their core by not handing out many no-movement clauses in their contracts and are better positioned than most teams when an expansion draft occurs.
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