Projecting which restricted free agents will return to the Canadiens in 2024-25
The Montreal Canadiens have quite a few restricted free agents in the system, so who is bound to return next season and even potentially spend time with the big club?
As a younger organization, the Montreal Canadiens will have quite a few pending restricted free agents for the 2024 offseason. This won’t be the final season that we see so many RFAs in the system, as 2025 is also shaping up to be an offseason that will force general manager Kent Hughes to make some decisions about which younger players deserve to stay in the system and who he should let walk.
The players on this list comprise a few the Canadiens have seen at the NHL level, and some have fared well while others haven’t performed so hotly. But thanks to their overall youth, just because their initial NHL stint didn’t go as planned, it doesn’t mean they didn’t show enough potential to at least get another look.
Each player listed below and in the upcoming sides are currently on six-figure salaries, so Holland will easily fit anyone he wants back into the system even if the current projected cap space doesn’t look promising. It’s also important to know that those who will spend most of their time in the AHL won’t count against the cap since their expected salaries wouldn’t result in a “buried cap penalty” when they are assigned to the lower league.
So, who should receive an extension, and which players should Hughes allow to continue their respective careers elsewhere? Let’s start with a pair of players who have spent most of their time in the AHL.
Arnaud Durandeau is another RFA who has seen time in the NHL
Traded to the Canadiens in March, Arnaud Durandeau has a minute sample size in the NHL, as the former sixth-round pick spent time with the New York Islanders for four games. This came after he not only saw time in the AHL, but also the ECHL, so to continually move up is a testament to his work ethic.
But there isn’t much to get excited about since it looks like Durandeau has hit his ceiling. He’s also been part of three AHL teams this season, having spent time with the Bridgeport Islanders and the Utica Comets before he made his way to Laval. He was a trade acquisition, so Durandeau will likely stick around, but he’s nothing more than organizational depth.
Mattias Norlinder could return as he hones his North American game
The Canadiens drafted Mattias Norlinder in the third round of the 2019 NHL Draft, and he’s seen six games of action with the Canadiens, logging an assist during his initial trial. He hasn’t been part of the big club since, but Norlinder is about to finish just his second full season with the Rocket.
With just two full campaigns in North America, the stay-at-home blueliner should get a qualifying offer and continue to develop his game in Laval. This isn’t to say he will never make the big club, as he’s not among the top defensemen in the prospects pool, but that doesn’t mean he can’t create decent organizational depth.
Jesse Ylonen has had over 100 games to prove himself
Jesse Ylonen received a trial game in the 2020-21 season when he made his NHL debut, and he played 14 contests the following year, recording five points and two goals while averaging 11:34 of ice time. The 2022-23 season saw him gain even more ice time, with an average of 13:27 per game across 37 contests, and he ended up with 16 points and six goals.
This year, that number increased to 57 games through April 5th, but his overall performance suffered, with just four goals and eight points across a meager 10:17 of average total ice time. He hasn’t grown his game based on these numbers, and while Ylonen is someone who has seen time on the power play and penalty kill units, the units’ respective performances while he’s been on the ice haven’t been encouraging.
However, his contributions at 5-on-5 could be what gives him at least a bridge deal: He’s currently logging an on-ice save percentage of 94.6, and he’s been on the ice for five more goals scored than goals allowed. His xGA at even strength sits at 21.9, despite the actual goals allowed number being 16 in the same situation. The same thing is the case for his xGF at even strength, which is 17.6 compared to 19 on-ice goals for.
His basic statistics aren’t encouraging, but Ylonen has shown signs that he can be an effective role player.
Arber Xhekaj has put together an encouraging sample size
Last season, we saw Arber Xhekaj appear in 51 games and put up 13 points and five goals across 15:16 of average total ice time. Xhekaj’s physical game glowed on third-pairing minutes, as he logged 159 hits and 46 blocks.
He saw nearly 40 minutes on the power play and helped the Canadiens land a 16.7 shooting percentage when he was on the ice. His 5-on-5 statistics weren’t as encouraging, with a Corsi For of just 47.1 percent despite seeing 58.4 percent of all of his starts occur in the offensive zone. His on-ice save percentage was a stellar 92.3, but he also saw opponents score 30 goals when he was on the ice, compared to just 24 goals for.
This season, Xhekaj has 10 points in 44 contests, and he’s logging nearly 16 minutes per game. He’s developing a better knack for invading scoring lanes, with 49 blocks, and Xhekaj is keeping up his physical play with 124 hits.
His Corsi For has improved to 48.8 percent despite a lower offensive zone starting percentage, which is currently at 55.8 percent. His on-ice save percentage is slightly better than it was last season, and he’s also been on the ice at 5-on-5 for 32 goals compared to just 24 against.
For the most part, Xhekaj’s basic and advanced numbers have improved to the point that they indicate a better overall game, which will easily warrant an extension for the 23-year-old this summer.
Justin Barron has shown encouraging returns in his NHL trials
No, Justin Barron hasn’t managed to stick with the Canadiens lineup on a full-time basis, but he’s played well enough to warrant consideration. Barron is still just 22, and he’s seen 80 games with the Canadiens over the past two seasons and 85 total. He has 27 points and 10 goals over the past two years, plus a respectable 17:35 of average total ice time, 101 hits, and 89 blocks.
The latter two numbers show us that Barron, at worst, could wind up as a bruiser on the third-pairing, but he has also shown the potential to eventually evolve into a well-rounded player. He’s seen more action on special teams, and his 5-on-5 numbers weren’t awful this year - 47.2 Corsi For percentage, 23 on-ice goals for, 24 allowed, and a 92.4 on-ice save percentage.
His xGF and xGA at even strength also landed within one goal of his actual on-ice goals for and goals allowed at even strength, and his possession quality improved from minus-6.7 to minus-1.3.
Overall, inconsistencies explain why he’s still spending time in Laval instead of Montreal sans a recent promotion, but his overall performance has been trending upward lately. Given his youth, the time he’s spent in the NHL, and the fact his game has grown, there is no way Kent Hughes won’t extend a qualifying offer.
Filip Cederqvist brings a passionate game, but does it warrant an extension?
Filip Cederqvist shows off an energizing game, but his points production hasn’t been there in the AHL, be it with the Buffalo Sabres affiliate, the Rochester Americans, or, more recently, with the Laval Rocket. As of early April, Cederqvist scored just four goals and six points in Laval, and he has yet to show he can be the same effective player he was during his time in the SHL when he put up 32 points in 49 regular season games with Djurgardens in 2021-22.
Regarding Cederqvist, it’s important to remember that he’s only in his second full season in North America, so that should warrant him a qualifying offer so he can gain more experience. Cederqvist plays with a lot of energy, so if he parlays that into sound points production, watch out.
Lias Andersson is a former first-round pick and a journeyman
The New York Rangers took Lias Andersson with the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NHL Draft, and he’s since seen 110 games in the NHL for both New York and the Los Angeles Kings. Andersson, unfortunately, hasn’t stuck with either team, and that landed him in the Canadiens system after he signed in July 2023.
Andersson’s NHL numbers are forgettable, and they’re not even worth looking at, so let’s judge him more from what he’s been doing in Laval. Overall, he’s shown promise, with 37 points and 18 goals with the Rocket, but he’s put up similar numbers throughout his time in the AHL. At this point, it would be tough to see Hughes hang onto a player whose high-water mark appears to be as a top-end AHL talent.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference and Elite Prospects as of April 5th)