Montreal Canadiens: By the Numbers – October 2023

The Canadiens have completed their first month of the 2023-24 NHL season, and that means the return of “By The Numbers.” This is a series where I take an analytical look at the Canadiens after each month of the NHL season. This gives us an alternative glimpse into how the Habs are performing throughout the year.

Montreal had a good month of October, going 5-2-2 and playing in several tight games. But the schedule will only get tougher from here on out, with the Canadiens playing six of their nine games at home so far this season and only playing two games outside of Canada so far this year.

The big story so far this season has been the play of the goaltenders, once again shouldering a heavy load and answering the bell. This is especially true at five-on-five, where the Canadiens have surrendered the fewest goals in the NHL, allowing just seven in nine games so far. Now, you may ask how we attribute that to the goalies as opposed to team defence as a whole, a reasonable question.

The answer is in the data. While the Canadiens are giving up the fewest goals at five-on-five, they rank 26th in the NHL in xGA/60. Here’s a good guide for a brief yet simple explanation of what xG (expected goals) is. Essentially, this means they give up a lot of shots and scoring chances, even at even strength. And it makes sense. The Canadiens have been outshot pretty heavily this season, even at five-on-five (The Habs control 47.8% of shots at 5v5, which is 25th in the NHL).

And yet, the Canadiens haven’t given up many goals, and their goaltenders are amongst the leaders in GSAx, even more so at five-on-five. All three netminders have a combined GSAx of 11.81 in just seven games, which is phenomenal. And it suggests that if the goaltending gets worse, the Habs could be in for a harsh reality check.

And, of course, the Canadiens are still giving up their fair share of goals this year. The Canadiens penalty kill ranks 24th in the NHL but has given up the second most power-play goals this year, behind only Anaheim. This is due to the fact that the Habs have taken the second most penalties, also behind Anaheim.

It’s killing any momentum the Habs five-on-five play has generated. A penalty kill operating at 75% could be good enough, but not when you take as many penalties as the Canadiens have. The Habs have already had four games in which their opponent scored multiple power-play goals. The bottom line is that they need to be better disciplined, and/or the PK has to kick it up a notch.

Offensively, the Canadiens are… average to below average. They are by no means atrocious, but they’re hardly setting the world on fire, either. They rank 19th in the NHL in goals-per-game, averaging three, which is an improvement over the 2.77 goals per game they averaged last year. But they rank towards the bottom in a lot of critical offensive categories.

They rank 31st in xGF% at 42.96%, which means they are giving up far more quality scoring chances than they are getting. And there xGF/60 ranks 26th sitting at 2.96. And while the Canadiens power play is sitting at 20%, a significant improvement from previous years, the process hasn’t been pretty. It’s hard to believe the Canadiens will sustain that moving forward. The eye test alone suggests they still have a lot of work to do there.

The good news is that the Canadiens play at five-on-five is better, ranking 13th in xGF/60. This means they’re generating a fair amount of offence, though it could be better. Their 48.88 xGF% at five-on-five suggests they still give up more chances than they create, but not by quite as much. And as more talent joins the fold, that gap should continue to shrink. Heck, it’s easy to imagine what Kirby Dach’s presence could do for the Canadiens.

So, what exactly do these numbers mean? Well, in short, it suggests that the Canadien’s record of 5-2-2 isn’t necessarily indicative of their play. And if nothing changes, it’s hard to envision they remain in the playoff hunt, even with good goaltending. Five of the Canadien’s nine games have gone to extra time, a pace that will likely slow down. And the numbers suggest that will be unlikely to favour the Habs.

But this team is young and inexperienced. As more talent joins the fold and the Canadiens grow stronger as a team, these numbers should reflect more positively on them. Until then, we wait and see how the Habs can fare now. If the goaltending cools off, it could mean more losses, but if the Habs can play a little better, it could mean bigger and better things. We’ll just have to wait and see.

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