Montreal Canadiens: What To Do With Pierre-Luc Dubois?

The Montreal Canadiens already made one big move this offseason as they locked up sniper Cole Caufield to an eight-year contract extension. With the 2022-23 season winding down and the NHL Draft less than three weeks away, the hotstove is heating up around the NHL and the Canadiens are in the middle of it all.

One player that they continue to be linked to is Pierre-Luc Dubois of the Winnipeg Jets. Dubois is a restricted free agent this offseason and can become an unrestricted free agent a year from now if he wants to do so.

Rumours around the league have it that Dubois really wants to join the Canadiens as soon as he can, as the Ste-Agathe-des-Monts native desires to play close to his hometown. This was apparently part of the reason the Columbus Blue Jackets traded him at such a young age and it sounds like he may want to be dealt again soon.

Pierre LeBrun, TSN’s hockey insider reports Dubois is not interested in signing an extension with the Jets this summer, not even a one year contract that would get him to UFA status in 2024. Basically, Dubois is demanding a trade from the Jets.

Of course, the realities of the NHL are that Dubois can’t really call his shot until next offseason. The Jets could just extend him a qualifying offer and retain his rights for the 2023-24 season with a one-year contract at the same cap hit ($6 million) that he had this past season.

Now, if the Jets do that, they know for sure they are losing him for nothing in a year. So, even if they do get to keep him for another season, they would be wise to trade him now and not let him walk away from them days after turning 26.

But does that mean the Canadiens should automatically trade for him now?

LeBrun also mentioned the Canadiens are interested, but he doesn’t think they would be willing to pay a fortune since Dubois is a UFA in a year, and he likely wants to come to Montreal then anyway.

Trading assets for him now would be like trading in your used truck for a new one even though you are getting no value at all for your trade-in vehicle. Why not get the new truck in a year’s time and give up the used one to someone else for a decent payment in return?

It seems to make the most sense just to wait it out, even if Dubois’ value has been greatly reduced by his trade demand and clear desire to play in Montreal. So, the Canadiens should just wait, right?

Well, not so fast. There is some risk in waiting. The Jets know they need to trade Dubois and surely will this offseason. If the Habs wait and don’t make a deal, there is a possibility that Dubois finds the grass is greener elsewhere. He could find a perfect situation for himself that he didn’t even know existed.

What if he gets dealt to a really good team that needs a center like the Colorado Avalanche? Playing on a second line behind Nathan MacKinnon would give him favorable matchups every night.

What if he lands in Ottawa in a deal for Alex Debrincat and plays with Brady Tkachuk for a year and is really close to home? Wouldn’t it be a pretty sweet situation for a young player? Maybe he loves it and signs long term and then the Canadiens have to face him as a division rival for a decade.

At 6’2″ and 205 pounds and coming off a season where he scored 27 goals and 63 points in 73 games, I’m guessing it wouldn’t be fun to face him regularly for the foreseeable future. For that reason, a trade now, if it comes with a long-term contract immediately, does make some sense.

Still, it would have to be at a discount. You can’t give up Nick Suzuki or Kirby Dach to bring him in. You can’t trade the 5th overall pick to get him. You can’t even trade a top young player with huge potential like Kaiden Guhle. Not for a player the fan base is convinced will sign here in a year.

Now that he is openly on the trade market, teams will be calling to inquire about him. But they know it is likely an acquisition for one season so the Jets are not going to get the type of offers they really want.

This leaves the Canadiens in an odd spot. Dubois is a really good player and one of the few stars in the league who appears to really want to play in Montreal. The Canadiens always have a hard time attracting free agents because of weather and tax situations. Can they be confident he only wants to sign in Montreal and won’t end up elsewhere and choose to stay there?

It’s not a guarantee he makes it to free agency if traded to Ottawa or Colorado or another team this summer. So, the Canadiens need to put together a decent offer, and not even come close to overpaying. It would have to start with the Florida Panthers first round pick which will be 31st or 32nd and also an NHL regular like Christian Dvorak so the Jets have someone to play center and hope he can score 25-30 goals for them. Add in a good prospect but not one of the team’s best like Riley Kidney or Oliver Kapanen and that would be the best offer the Habs should give.

If the Jets are not interested in a first round pick, Dvorak and Kidney, then the Canadiens should sit it out and be patient for another year. Then, it is quite possible Dubois will sign in Montreal if that really is what he wants.

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