Montreal Canadiens: By The Numbers – End Of Year Review (Plus April)

Welcome to the last edition of By the Numbers for the 2022-23 season, where we’ll take a brief look at the month of April, but mainly focus on the numbers the Canadiens had for the season. I started this series after November and have done this for every month of the season since, except for an ugly December. You can find those editions here:

• By the Numbers – November
• By the Numbers – January
• By the Numbers – February
• By the Numbers – March

First, let’s look at the six games the Canadiens played in April, where they went 1-5 and did not play well. And to be fair, that’s expected at this point, with all the injuries. In fact, we might as well call them the Laval Rocket based on how depleted they were. The Habs are not a playoff team even when healthy, so it’s no surprise seeing them struggle when shorthanded. In April, things just didn’t go right, with pretty much every statistical category acting more as an outlier than an indication of performance, and with such a small sample size, that makes sense.

In six games, the Habs went 0 for 17 with the man advantage, an unsurprising statistic given the Canadiens’ struggles on the powerplay for a very long time. But, oddly enough, the Canadiens were actually more lethal while down a man, notching not one, now two, but four shorthanded goals in just six games. Other than that, the numbers are… depressing but also not that big of a deal. You can see the full breakdown of the month (and the other months) in the picture on the right of the tweet linked below.

How did the Canadiens Season as a Whole go?

If you read the other monthly recaps, you’ll probably recall me talking about how big a role goaltending had played in the Canadiens’ success. Unfortunately, down the stretch, the Canadiens started to lose a lot more, specifically since the beginning of March, right around the trade deadline. Around here is when a lot of injuries began to pile up, but something else changed as well.

The Canadiens goaltending, which had not just been respectable, but actually a strength, began to unravel. From the beginning of the season until the end of February, the Canadiens goalies had a combined GSAx of 9.81, which is very impressive. Over the next 22 games, it was -8.49, bringing the season total down to just 1.33. In this time, there wasn’t a drastic shift in the Canadiens play, at least not one easily denoted by the statistics. Their xGF% saw very minor changes, ones that wouldn’t suggest a sudden shift to even more losing. Their GSAx, however, did.

Now this isn’t to suggest that the only issue was their goaltending because while they didn’t see any significant changes in other statistical categories, those were never particularly good to begin with. It’s what made their goaltending up until March so impressive. It seemed to defy the odds. For the season, the Canadiens had an xGF% of 41.70, ranked 30th in the league. In other words, this means that the Canadiens only controlled 41.70% of the scoring chances. It’s hard to win under those circumstances.

While the Habs never ranked last in any major statistical category, they were near the bottom in each. Their 2.77 GF/game ranked 26th, and their 3.72 GA/game ranked 29th. In addition, they ranked 29th in both PP and PK and 28th in shots allowed per game. Yes, I’m aware the Canadiens had numerous injuries, but the numbers say that the Canadiens earned that 28th place. That will be something to keep an eye on next season when the Habs are at full strength again.

Even in the first few months of the season, when the Habs were healthy and hovering around .500, the numbers suggested it wouldn’t last. In October, their xGF% was 42.27%, and although it was better at 5v5, it was still just 45.94%. If the Canadiens want to become a playoff team, they will need to improve in these areas. And as more talent comes in, that is more likely to happen. It’s been well documented, both here and everywhere else, just how starved for offensive talent the Canadiens have been. When that begins to change, so will these numbers; when these numbers change, so will the results.

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