Montreal Canadiens: 2 reasons Mike Hoffman’s offense has declined
The Montreal Canadiens signed Mike Hoffman to a three-year contract ahead of the 2021-22 season. Hoffman gambled on himself, joining the St. Louis Blues on a one-year deal the year before, during the 2020-21 season.
Things did not quite work out as well as they had in years past. He posted career lows compared to his time in Florida. The Blues have a more defensive-minded scheme, which was detrimental to Hoffman’s style. Things did not go much better with the Montreal Canadiens in 2021-22.
After signing a three-year, $13.5 million contract, he joined the Habs forward core. His first season saw more of the same; reduced offensive output from his prime with a defensive-oriented role. There was too much reliance on his defensive zone performance when he needs that chance to be an offensive asset.
Hoffman was paired with Brendan Gallagher a majority of the time, who needs a resurgence of his own. He also saw Christian Dvorak and Josh Anderson joining him on a line for the majority of his ice time. There were times when he was with Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki, which should be more his speed.
Reason #1: The Montreal Canadiens misused Mike Hoffman in 2021-22.
Hoffman’s 2021-22 season saw him play in 67 games, producing 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 total points. He’s a benefit on the power-play and should be kept there for sure. However, Hoffman spent a lot of time being deployed in the defensive zone, which is not exactly something that benefits his offensive style.
Taking a deeper look into Hoffman’s metrics, his defensive zone starts (dZS%) was nearly 40%, sitting at 39.4%, which was higher than it was with the Blues and higher than it ever was during his time in Florida and Ottawa (excluding 2012-13 where he played three games).
This implies that Hoffman spent more time getting put onto the ice while in the defensive zone. While his Corsi For was 9.8% above the rest of the team, things could have been much better. Deploying him in the offensive zone, letting him use his offensive skillset to his advantage, would only help the Canadiens’ offense.
However, that’s just one of the reasons Hoffman’s offense has not been up to par. A more offensive role would help him flourish and get things back on track.
Reason #2: Mike Hoffman was extremely unlucky for the Montreal Canadiens in 2021-22.
While it’s hard to quantify which players are lucky and which are not, the world of hockey has tried to put numbers to it. One of the advanced metrics used, PDO, is a measure of a player’s on-ice performance.
It’s a metric shown on Hockey-Reference that takes into account shooting percentage and save percentage, then is scaled on a scale around 100. The scale runs from the 90-110 mark, with 100 being the midpoint.
Essentially, 100 is the midpoint, and anything above 100 is above average or “lucky,” and anything below 100 is “unlucky” The farther a player deviates from that 100-mark, the more it changes in one direction or another.
For context, Hoffman posted a 96.8 PDO rating in 2021-22, implying he was “unlucky” last season. However, it moreover implies that Hoffman was not finding the back of the net on his shots. The metric relies on finishing the play and getting the puck to the back of the net.
On top of that, Hoffman’s RAPm metrics tell a similar story of negative performance. Twitter image is courtesy of Evolving Hockey’s RAPm tool.
Hoffman’s even strength chart puts him well on the wrong side of the league-wide distribution. In fact, he’s in a real bad spot for these metrics. It speaks to his role with the team being a problem. The power-play metrics on the right side put him on the right side of the league’s metrics.
Whether it’s an unlucky performance or struggles to tap into that offensive side that he’s shown throughout his career, something caused the lack of offense in 2021-22. What about solutions? What can the Habs do to try and get more out of Hoffman?
Here are some solutions for the Montreal Canadiens to ponder.
At the end of the day, Mike Hoffman’s offense has declined. Whatever the reasons, something has to change, and the Montreal Canadiens have to expect better from the 32-year-old winger during the 2022-23 season.
The easiest fix to keep him in the lineup with the team and hope for a change comes with a different set of line combinations. Working him into the top-six with more offensive-minded players will be the way to go.
If they want to see Hoffman’s offense soar, then deploying him in the offensive zone is another thing that needs to happen. Seeing the dZS metric mentioned on the first page be reduced will help him get more opportunities to do his thing in the offensive zone.
He’s going to get it done on the power-play. But being a power-play specialist only is not what the Canadiens brought him in to do. So something has to give for him to get his offense back on track.
While these are some of the “simple” fixes that might spur a boost in offense, it may also be time for the Canadiens to decide what they want out of Hoffman and the last two seasons of his contract.
He’s due $4.5 million annually, and the Canadiens may be shopping the winger. Some Habs fans think his contract needs to be done away with, aiming to pursue a trade instead of keeping him around, hoping the offense clicks.
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Exploring some trade options to see what they can get for Hoffman is not the worst idea in the world. Shopping him on the trade market could be worthwhile to see what type of value he holds.