Okay, I’m going to ruin some of my fellow Montreal Canadiens writers and cut the BS. The Canadiens are not going to be trading the first overall pick, and they are not going to be picking anyone other than Shane Wright.
It’s kind of too bad that the Canadiens got the first overall pick from the point of view of making conversation. It is much more interesting to speculate who is going 2nd or 3rd.
That’s because Shane Wright is obviously the safest pick for 1st overall. He has the lowest floor and will be at least a good NHL player unless something goes really wrong. The first overall pick isn’t the one to go off the board, because there might be better players behind him, but finding them now is impossible.
Wright Comparable
The problem is that Shane Wright isn’t the groundbreaking first overall pick. He is less Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid and more Jack Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. All those are good NHL players, but there are two different levels when comparing those two groups. At least we can hope he won’t be a Nail Yakupov or Nico Hischier.
Wright isn’t going to change the game. He isn’t going to come out of the gate and score 4 goals and become a Rocket Richard hopeful every year. A comparison that has propped up a number of times is Anze Kopitar. Kopitar was taken 11th overall in 2005, but made his debut in 2006-07 and scored 20 goals.
Another comparable is Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron was taken in the 2nd round in 2003, and played an okay year in 2003-04 with 16 goals and 39 points. He then spent a whole year in the AHL before coming back to the NHL and scored 30 goals. It also took Bergeron another 8 seasons to score 30 again.
Of course, Bergeron’s biggest draw is his two-way play, excelling both the defensive and offensive end, something that Wright has been getting early praise on. The problem is that the defensive side of the game is sadly underappreciated by a lot of fans.
You need to look no further than the Calder Trophy race. The nominees are forwards Michael Bunting and Trevor Zegras, and defender Moritz Seider. If Cole Caufield played the way he played late in the season all year, then we would have a different conversation, but that was not the case.
In my opinion, Seider should be the runaway favourite. On a bad team, Seider played with a bunch of different linemates: Nick Leddy, Danny DeKeyser, Marc Staal and Jordan Oesterle. And none of those guys are up for the Hart Trophy, just saying. And despite playing with a revolving door of defensive partners, Seider played over 23 minutes a game on average and at a high level of skill.
It would be as if Michael Bunting carried the Toronto Maple Leafs offensively while also playing with a bunch of lesser quality players than Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. To me, comparing the two is a little ridiculous, but offense sells so it’s a tight race.
If Shane Wright’s defensive game develops before his offensive game, or he doesn’t produce goals and points, Wright will already be behind the 8-ball. His confidence would be shot because of poor play, and because the hate from the fanbase would be immense.