Montreal Canadiens: How To Replace Jesperi Kotkaniemi If He Lands in Carolina

Montreal Canadiens centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi set the hockey world ablaze in summer when he signed an offer sheet with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Not only did he sign an offer sheet, but he signed one with surprising figures. Kotkaniemi’s one-year deal with the Hurricanes comes with a cap hit just over $6.1 million. Considering he is likely worth about $1.5 million based on his play so far in his career, it could be considered a bit of an overpayment.

That is what will make this difficult for the Montreal Canadiens and their general manager Marc Bergevin. Of course they want to keep a 21 year old who has the potential to turn into a very good NHL player. You just don’t give up on 21 year old players for no reason.

The offer sheet is a pretty big reason thought. The Finnish centre is coming off a season where he scored five goals in 56 games. Handing him an enormous raise would be a huge risk. Many Habs fans were already growing impatient with Kotkaniemi’s glacial paced development. If he returns next season with a cap hit eight times larger than last season’s, expectations are going to be through the roof.

The Canadiens have the right to just match the offer sheet and keep Kotkaniemi for next season at a $6.1 million cap hit. After going on a run to the Stanley Cup Final and losing Phillip Danault, it would really weaken their centre depth if they also allowed Kotkaniemi to leave.

There is some pressure on the team to do well after having young players like Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield lead the way offensively in the playoffs while also having an aging veteran in goal with Carey Price. Can the Habs afford to just let Kotkaniemi go and still try to compete?

Well yes. But they would have to replace his minutes and role somehow. How, you might ask? Well, let’s take a look at all of their possibilities.

Promote From Within

This is essentially the “Let’s hope Ryan Poehling is ready for prime time” plan. Or, alternatively, the “we got thrown a curveball at the end of August and there wasn’t much available” plan. Either way, it’s not likely ideal.

Poehling did have a terrific AHL season in 2020-21. He led the Laval Rocket in scoring even though he was injured for eight of their 36 games. His 11 goals trailed only Yannick Veilleux and his 25 points were one better than Jordan Weal’s 24 to finish atop the team.

That is great news for Poehling who was drafted in the first round of the 2017 NHL Draft and struggled in his first full pro season. However, does it mean he is ready for a top nine role at the NHL level right now?

Maybe. But does it make sense to just hope he can handle without a Plan B? Not at all. Just promoting Poehling from within would leave the Laval Rocket with Laurent Dauphin and Lukas Vejdemo as their top centres and most likely to be called up if needed on the Habs roster.

That is pretty thin. Though Poehling may prove to be a steady two-way player on the third line, banking on it would be foolish and would leave the Canadiens extremely thin down the middle.

Make a deal

Staal or Bozak are not going to fill the void for a long term, so if the Canadiens want more than a one-year solution they are going to have to search the trade market.

The biggest name on the market is Jack Eichel, but the Buffalo Sabres are looking for an enormous return for their star centre. He is also fighting with the team about whether or not he needs a specific neck surgery so there is plenty of risk.

Still, if the Canadiens have their own and the Carolina Hurricanes first round picks to offer, it would have to get a serious conversation started. The Sabres would want another huge piece and likely would target a young forward. Montreal would be very hesitant to move Cole Caufield and it doesn’t solve the centre problem if Nick Suzuki is dealt.

If they can make something work that involved first round picks, and one or two of Kaiden Guhle, Jesse Ylonen, Jan Mysak or another higher end prospect, then the centre ice problem would be solved.

Also apparently on the market for the right price is Evgeny Kuznetsov of the Washington Capitals. With no deal in place yet, it is unlikely that the Capitals move him now but there were plenty of rumours around the NHL Draft.

Christian Dvorak is another name that continues to pop up. The Arizona Coyotes are stockpiling first and second round picks and after scoring 17 goals and 31 points in 56 games, the 25 year old Dvorak would be a great fit as the Canadiens second line centre, but would likely cost a first and a second round pick.

Looking ahead to the possible rental market at the next trade deadline and it is possible that Tomas Hertl gets moved. Would the San Joe Sharks be interested in a package that is headlined by the first and third round picks that the Canadiens get from the Hurricanes? Perhaps that isn’t quite enough, but it would be a great start. San Jose should know how valuable those unprotected first round picks can be.

I’m guessing the Columbus Blue Jackets would trade Max Dom, but I don’t know that he would want to come back to Montreal so soon or that the Habs management would be eager to get him back.

However, there are many options for the Canadiens if they choose not to match this offer sheet. Promoting from within might be okay if Poehling takes a huge step and injuries are not a concern. Free agency offers a couple of okay options for one season and allows the Canadiens to enter the 2022 NHL Draft in Montreal with a pair of first round picks.

The trade route would give the biggest boost to the 2021-22 roster, but could come at a huge price. First, we have to wait and see what happens with Kotkaniemi, but if he goes to Carolina, I’d expect Bergevin to have a replacement in town very quickly.