Montreal Canadiens: 5 Players Who Have to Step Up in the Playoffs
Well, you can kiss a first-round date with the Edmonton Oilers goodbye. Thanks to five straight losses, including those of the embarrassing kind to the lowly Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs, the Montreal Canadiens will be facing the Leafs.
But what is really the difference? One extra play-off round if they could have beaten the Oilers? To be the best you got to beat the best, and all roads out of the North Divison seem to lead straight through the heart of Ontario’s capital.
Now, it’s not all for nothing. Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin’s favourite saying, after all, is “in the playoffs, anything can happen.” And Montreal is coming up against a Toronto playoff team that might be as fragile as a bubble.
If you want to find Toronto’s last playoff series win, you would have to go all the way back to 2004, against current Leaf Jason Spezza’s (at the time 20 years old) Ottawa Senators. How long ago was that? Well, on that Ottawa team was captain Daniel Alfredsson, young forward Marian Hossa and a hulking young d-man in Zdeno Chara. Toronto was led by Mats Sundin, Joe Nieuwendyk and Ed Belfour.
Toronto lost in the very next round against the Philadelphia Flyers, but if you want to see playoff pain, you have to look a little bit more recent. For that, we have to go to the not-so-distant past of 2013.
2013 was a lockout-shortened year and it played right into Toronto’s strengths. Recently, the Maple Leafs have the pattern of being good at the start of the year, but crashing out of the playoffs by season end, generally in spectacular fashion. In the shortened season, Toronto did not have time to collapse and they made the playoffs and lined up against the Boston Bruins.
Toronto was not supposed to hold their own against the Bruins and pleasantly surprised as they took them to seven games. That doesn’t mean that the seventh game was any less painful, as just over halfway through the third period, Toronto blew a 4-1 lead to lose the game 5-4 in overtime.
But, that was just a prelude. No one on the team now played in that series, but it serves as a perfect introduction to the next years of playoff hockey. First, they missed the next three years of playoff hockey, but gained Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
The kids showed up earlier than expected, and in Matthews and Marner’s rookie season, the Maple Leafs made the playoffs and played the Washington Capitals. This was just icing on the cake. Everyone knew that Matthews, Marner and Nylander would be good, but no one thought that they would be this good this early. So, when they bowed out to Washington after putting up a good fight in 6 games, no one was upset.
Then, Boston came back to haunt them. With the Tampa Bay Lightning securely in first in the Atlantic Division, it was two years in a row that Toronto and Boston met in the playoffs. The first time, Toronto lost in game 7, as a back-and-forth game turned more back than forth in the 3rd period.
That hurt, but it had a bittersweet feeling to it. Toronto was down 3-1 in the series and forced an entertaining seventh game out of it. The next year? Not so much. The games went one for Toronto, one for Boston, one for Toronto, one for Boston, until the seventh game. Boston demolished Toronto 5-1.
Maybe it is just Boston that has Toronto’s number? Well, last year in the play-in round Toronto drew a favourable match-up against the Columbus Blue Jackets. That round was anything but easy and simple. One game, Toronto gave up a 3-0 lead and lost in overtime. Then, in a must-win game 4, Toronto came back from a 3-0 lead with less than 4 minutes left to force a decisive game 5.
Time to exercise those demons, especially with the immense momentum of the last come-back win, right? Well, Toronto laid a goose-egg, 3-0. And everyone’s favourite stat was that the big 4 offensive Torontonians made almost as much as the entirety of Columbus’ forwards, and those Toronto forwards could not muster a goal.
So, Toronto is not impervious in the playoffs and maybe is a bit fragile. That doesn’t mean it is going to be a walk in the park or even possible that Montreal can beat them. Matthews is the best scorer in the league this year and it is not even close. Jack Campbell has been playing great and even broke a record this year.
But, if Montreal is going to make it past Toronto, some guys are going to have to step up.
Disclaimer: It is easy to say that the entire team needs to step up after the way the Canadiens have been playing lately. This list is the most important players who need to step it up, and the ones that are the most likely to do it. Guys like Paul Byron and Artturi Lehkonen are what they are, and guys like Eric Staal who seem less and less likely to do something productive will not be found here.
And so, without further ado…
Number 1: Carey Price
Carey Price is expected to return from his concussion injury in time for the playoffs. As much as fans and pundits like to speculate that there is a goaltender crisis in Montreal, it seems like there would be only one choice for Dominique Ducharme and Marc Bergevin.
Despite how well Jake Allen has been playing all season, Price is the man for Bergevin. And to be fair to Price, he has not been bad this year. Price has played 25 games and it was the plan all along to have Price play fewer games, but a good number of those missed games have been due to injury.
Allen and Price, as much as people love to sing the praises of Allen, have had really similar numbers. The goals-against average is 2.64 for Price and 2.63 for Allen, good for 21st and 22nd in the league. Price has a .901 save percentage while Allen has .908. Price has 12 wins and Allen has 11. Price is the only one with a shutout this year.
What’s the difference? $6,150,000. Price has played well this year, but $10.5 million does not buy well. That is the same amount of money annually that Patrick Kane makes, and Kane has 66 points this year so far. The closest comparable in the goaltending realm is Sergei Bobrovsky, who makes an even $10 million a year. Price has a better goals-against average, but has a slightly lower save percentage and has 5 fewer wins in 5 fewer games.
But it is hard to say that Price is comparable to the players in his price range like Kane, Marner and Jonathan Toews. Price and Bobrovsky are only joined by Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million) as high-priced goaltenders. The next highest goalies are Marc-Andre Fleury and Tukka Rask at $7 million.
Then there are the injuries. A lower-body injury and concussion this year. Price missed three games last year due to a lower-body injury, and missed 13 games in 2018 due to a concussion. Then, of course, there was the 2015-2016 season, where Price missed 67 games with a lower-body injury and completely derailed the season for the Habs.
Outside of all of that previously mentioned, the goalies are going to be the most important players for Montreal to beat the Maple Leafs. As previously mentioned, Toronto has the best scorer in the league in Matthews and his sidekick Marner. And once you get past those two, you have to deal with the second line of William Nylander and John Tavares.
It is a near-impossible task to completely stop those four, you can only hope to slow them down. It takes the whole team, but the last line of defence and the player that is on the ice for the longest amount of time is the goaltender.
It is not out of the realm of possibility that Price can pull a miracle run out of nowhere. Just last year, Montreal snuck into the play-in rounds and came up against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Montreal beat Pittsburgh soundly, and put up a valiant fight against a Philadelphia team that played about the most boring style of hockey imaginable.
(Side Note: Across the pond in Europe and the great sport of football, or soccer, there is a name for this style of play: tiki-taka [because yes there are different styles of play in soccer, not just boring as many people think]. In fact, in my family’s country of origin, Italy, the style is so unanimous with the national team, it can be called tiki-talia. It is all about maintaining possession by any means necessary, including passing it all the way back if they do not like what they see.
Montreal has displayed a little bit of this in their overtime against the Maple Leafs, but that is only for 5 minutes against Auston Matthews, I think it can be forgiven. When done well, tiki-taka can look like a work of art, as all these deliberate passes work together to form some unforgettable plays. But it can also lead to stalling and boredom, like in Philadelphia or at times, the New York Islanders).
So, after falling to Tiki-delphia and the dust settled, Price had played 10 games, winning 5 and losing 5, with a save percentage of .936 and a goals-against average of 1.78. Quite the step above the .901 and 2.64 numbers that he has put up so far this year. And Price is going to have to return to those numbers if Montreal is going to have success, especially if the offence continues to sputter.
But, that is easier done when you have a solid defence in front to stop those high danger chances. And that leads us to number 2.
Number 2: Shea Weber
Shea Weber can be grouped into over-hated players along with Carey Price and Jonathan Drouin. These players are the Over-Payed and the Over-Played.
There have been people that have speculated the team is better with these guys out of the line-up, and that is frankly pretty ridiculous. The problem seems to not lay with the players, but with the coach.
Price is an effective goalie when he is rested and healthy. Weber can still play physically demanding hockey. Drouin still has a lot of skill. But should these guys be a top-six forward, top-pairing defenseman and the player asked to carry a weak scoring team? No.
Each of these players is useful, but they have to be used correctly. And that is especially true with Weber.
Weber has played in over 20 minutes a game on average every year in the NHL after the 2007-2008 season. That amounts to 24,958 minutes played in the NHL. Those are not easy minutes. They include 9 seasons where Weber registered over 100 blocked shots and 12 seasons with over 100 hits (the only seasons less than 100 hits have been this year and 2017-2018, where he was limited to 26 games due to injury).
Injuries have become a problem for the 35-year-old defenceman. In 2018, Weber missed 49 games due to a foot injury, and the next year he missed 24 games due to knee surgery. This year, he already missed 6 games due to a sprained ankle and has missed the last games of the season this year with a lower-body injury. That is 90 games and counting of missed games just with Montreal.
This year has been his worst year as a Canadien. He has still eaten up big minutes, 22:42 on average, and has played against some of the top forwards in the league. But all those minutes have been filled with defensive gaffs and terrible turnovers.
This has been Weber’s worst year offensively too, as he has only 6 goals and 19 points, the lowest totals of his career since his rookie campaign. Weber has never been known for his offence, but it is nice to have, especially for a Montreal team that has struggled to score during his tenure as captain.
Now, if the Montreal Canadiens are going to make it past Toronto they are not going to need Weber’s offensive prowess as much, but they need him to be at the top of his game defensively. Weber is going to be drawing up against Matthews and Marner or Tavares and Nylander, and those are the lines that Montreal needs to shut down.
I have been an advocate of Weber all of this year. This off-season was a short one, end of August (for the Montreal Canadiens who were eliminated in the first round) to mid-January as opposed to April to October. The schedule was short but compressed, something that was compounded by the COVID break. That can take a toll on an older, physical defenceman.
When you think of players that are still successful later in their careers, Corey Perry or Jason Spezza or Joe Thornton come to mind. They play a step behind the rest of the league, but they use their hockey smarts to make up for their lack of foot speed. This should be no different to Weber, who was never known for his speed or skating prowess.
When you think of players that are too old for the NHL, you think of the ones that are too slow. When you think about tired and worn-out players, you think of bad decisions, and that is what Weber has been this year. Not saying that Weber will return to former glory, but it is hard to see Weber being this bad in the future.
Weber has always been a smart player, that has always depended on positioning and hockey sense to succeed in the defensive zone. That is something that should translate well into his later years, but that has not been the case this year.
Ducharme and Bergevin seem to like the whole legacy, not currency, and it seems like Weber will have a big part in the first round. Should Jeff Petry and Joel Edmundson be given the first pairing distinction? Yes. Would Weber be most efficient with fewer minutes and a more sheltered role? Absolutely. Will either of those things happen? The jury’s out on that, but possibly no. And if it is a no, Weber is going to have to have a major return to form.
Well, that is the defensive side of the game. But that is only half the battle. You have to score some goals if you want to win some games.
Number 3: Tomas Tatar
You would have to look far back to find a Montreal team that has not had problems putting the puck in the net. A Canadien has not won the Rocket Richard trophy, a trophy named after the famed Hab. In recent history, Max Pacioretty had some decent seasons, putting up 30 goals on a regular basis, and Alex Galchenyuk had the one year, but that does not make a good offensive team.
If there is one player that can score goals as a pure goal-scorer, it’s Tomas Tatar. Cole Caufield is an up-and-comer and cannot be asked to shoulder any goal-scoring duties in the playoffs where everything is a bit harder. Brendan Gallagher has put up better numbers, but asking anything more out of Gallagher is like asking the sun to burn brighter.
In the last couple of years, Montreal has had one of the best possession lines in the NHL that composed of Tatar, Gallagher and Phillip Danault. That line has their defined roles: Danault is great defensively, Gallagher is the heart and soul, nitty-gritty, hard-nosed player, and Tatar is the shooter.
Danault is going to slow down the opposition as much as possible and Gallagher is going to do his thing.
But the Montreal Canadiens need some guys that can put the puck in the net. They cannot solely rely on Tyler Toffoli to score as much as he has so far. Someone is going to have to step up, and that guy might just be Tatar.
It is a contract year for Tatar, and that should be a good motivator. The problem is that he has not been very good in the playoffs. In 35 career playoff games, Tatar has only 6 goals and 11 points. Last year, including the play-in round, Tatar’s only points were 2 goals. And unlike Danault and Gallagher who provide other things when they are not scoring, Tatar doesn’t have the leadership or defensive prowess.
It is going to be hard to outscore Auston Matthews, but it will be impossible for Montreal to get past Toronto while taking a total wash in the first line match-up. We know that Gallagher will step up. We know Danault will be responsible defensively. This means Tatar will have to step up.
Montreal is outclassed offensively in the top-six, there is no way to get around that. If the Habs want to beat Toronto, they are going to have to beat their bottom-six.
Number 4: Joel Armia
Really, the entirety of the bottom six can be in a place on this list, but Joel Armia seems the most likely to break out.
Armia was drafted by the Buffalo Sabres but was included in the big trade that sent Evander Kane among others to Buffalo in exchange for a package including Armia, Tyler Myers and a draft pick that became Jack Roslovic. Then, the Montreal Canadiens picked him up for basically free, as they took on the dead contract of Steve Mason.
This has been the most Armia-y season for Armia. In January, he scored 2 goals and 5 points in 5 games. That was mostly buoyed by a massive 4-point game against Vancouver. That was also where one part of a trade Armia was involved in, Tyler Myers, knocked him out of the game with a concussion.
Before the concussion, Armia was looking great. Then, it has been a little slower. 2 goals and 3 points in 8 games in February. Then in March, he had a stretch of 3 points in 5 games, and once again he looked great. Then in 6 games this month of April, Armia has no points and a plus-minus of 0.
It was a similar story last year. 9 points in 11 games in October, followed by 5 points in 13 games in November. He is not just a streaky scorer, but streaky all around.
Armia seems like the player that if turned on in the playoffs, could be a great depth piece for a deep run. Think Rene Bourque in 2014, who scored 8 goals and 11 points in 17 games. He is the kind of guy, when the game runs late and the top-six are dead on their feet, who could get that game-winner.
It will be interesting if the old line of Jason Spezza (37 years old), Joe Thornton (41 years old) and Adam Brooks (25 years old) or Wayne Simmonds (32 years old) will continue into the playoffs, because if they do, that might be a weakness of this Toronto team. How much do those old bodies have left in them after a compressed season? On top of that, Brooks is a rookie.
When on, Armia can play with speed and size and is a menace on the penalty kill. It seems like he can hem a power play in their own zone for half a minute on his own. But all too often, he can fall into anonymity on the ice.
If Montreal is going to get by Toronto, they are going to have to outplay Toronto’s depth. If that is going to happen, Armia is going to have to be a big part of it.
Number 5: Jesperi Kotkaniemi
So much is up in the air right now with the line-up when it comes to the Montreal Canadiens. Lately, they were without their entire top line, or at least their 1A line for a good amount of time. So who really knows what Montreal’s line-up will look like.
There is little question that the line of Gallagher, Danault and Tatar will be together, or in the line-up in some capacity. Nick Suzuki has the second centre locked down, and Jake Evans, Paul Byron and Arturri Lehkonen earned at least a look in the playoffs after that clinching game against Edmonton. Toffoli is the leading scorer and will probably play alongside Suzuki. Perry has earned his spot and it will be hard to see Josh Anderson not making the line-up despite his recent struggles.
That leaves few spots for the remaining players like Michael Frolik, Eric Staal, Cole Caufield, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The clock seems stalled for Frolik, who spent too much time on the taxi squad to be effective if he would have ever been. Staal has so far failed as a Canadien, and it would be a choice based on legacy rather than picking the best player for the role.
That leaves Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The third overall pick in 2018 has had a rollercoaster of an NHL career so far. He surprised by making the team in his first year, and scored his first two goals in a wild game against Washington. He finished that season with 11 goals and 34 points. Then, the next season, he was sent down to the AHL after posting an abysmal 6 goals and 8 points in 36 games.
Kotkaniemi had a bit of a renaissance in the play-in round, as he scored 4 goals in 10 games and all of a sudden expectations were high again. This season has been a step up from the last, but not quite as high as his rookie season. 5 goals and 20 points in 56 games this season, which would expand to about equal his rookie season in points, but fewer goals.
However, this month has been bad. Like really bad. Zero points in his last 12 games. To find his last point, you have to go all the way back to Apr. 21, when he got an assist in a win against Edmonton. To find his last goal is even further back, also in a win against Edmonton, on Mar. 30.
One positive note is that he has been able to stay healthy, playing in all 56 games. The only other player to play 56 games for the Habs this year was Suzuki. But that does not mean that Kotkaniemi will be in the starting lineup come the playoffs.
Put frankly, the kid looks like he could not score on an empty net. The body language on the ice has been bad, head down with the puck, or up to the sky wondering what he can do to get out of this slump.
It has gotten to the point where Dominique Ducharme or Alex Burrows and his teammates have to do something to help him get his confidence back. Obviously, it’s not all on them to do something, but it looks like he won’t get through this on his own this year. Maybe it’s time to call up Joël Bouchard to see if he has any tips on dealing with a young player like this.
Maybe all it takes is one lucky shot, one goal, to get his confidence back, but that may never come in this series that has the potential to be a short one. And Montreal cannot afford to have any free-loaders if they are gonna put up a fight against Toronto.
But, if Kotkaniemi can find his game, he could be very important against the weaker bottom 6 (compared to the top 6) of the Toronto Maple Leafs. He can be a good set-up man and if he can bring some physicality to his game, his 6’2″ frame can do some damage. That is if he can step up his game, and Montreal cannot afford to wait for him to do it.
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And really, the list can go on from here. Anderson is in the same boat as Kotkaniemi with no points in his last 12 games. Staal has been a dud since coming to Montreal. All the defencemen are going to have to play the best hockey of their lives to even survive against the Leafs’ high-powered offence. But, that is the joy of playoff hockey. Anything can and will happen. You just never know until it does.