Montreal Canadiens: 7 Talking Points

1. 3v3 Overtime

Two weeks ago, my #1 talking point focused on the Canadiens’ overtime struggles and their playing of defensive forwards like Phillip Danault, Paul Byron and Joel Armia being a deeply flawed 3v3 strategy. Since that piece was written, the Habs have played 9 games and lost two in overtime and one in the shootout while finally winning their first game beyond regulation in the shootout on Saturday, bringing their record beyond regulation to 1/10.

And it isn’t just that the bounces haven’t gone Montreal’s way in overtime, though that happened on a Petry chance vs Winnipeg on Wednesday and on Anderson’s breakaway vs Vancouver on Friday, the team has lacked coordination and skill at 3v3. A good portion of that is due to the deployment of checking forwards in a situation where skill dominates, but even when the Habs put their skilled playmakers and goalscorers on the ice, they hold back and cycle the puck in their own zone, seemingly trying to run down the clock.

Saturday’s overtime was easily the team’s best of the season and was still deeply flawed. There was a lot of uncertainty in the attacking zone and cycling back into the neutral zone when sustained offensive pressure would have been wise. Drouin had a phenomenal chance with 20 seconds remaining, he took advantage of his skill and the added space of 3v3 OT and nearly scored a highlight-reel goal. But then the puck went the other way and Corey Perry misread the play which led to a great chance for Brock Boeser. Still, the OT play and deployment were much-improved.

Marc-Antoine Godin and Arpon Basu of The Athletic wrote on Friday that the Habs should “embrace the chaos of OT” instead of trying to implement a system in a situation in which systems crumble, there is simply too much space for skilled players to work with for a defence-first approach to work, as has been manifested in the Habs’ OT record. I fully agree with them.

While the Habs do not have the most offensive firepower in the division, they have skilled playmakers like Drouin, Suzuki and Kotkaniemi that can really take advantage of the extra time and space of 3v3 and the Habs have three right-wingers with 11, 11 and 18 goals on the season respectively that can each put the puck in the net. The fact that none of these six dynamic players have routinely started OT ahead of Danault and Byron – who have a combined 4 goals on the season – boggles the mind.

On Saturday, however, Ducharme started OT with Kotkaniemi, Drouin and Petry, hopefully, he will stick with deploying offensively-gifted players at 3v3 from this point onward. Danault did also see ice time in OT on Saturday and had a very good scoring chance himself. Danault played a strong game and giving him 3v3 ice time due to merit is perfectly fine with me, Paul Byron, on the other hand, should not have touched the ice a single time in overtime this season. The habs have plenty of quick forwards with more skill and scoring ability.

2. Powerplay and Penalty Kill

Heading into this season, fans and analysts alike noted the importance of special teams to the Canadiens’ success. The powerplay had been largely ineffective and static for the past three seasons, while the penalty kill was a real area of concern in 2019-20. These trends continued this season under Claude Julien and Kirk Muller.

Following a hot start with 6 powerplay goals in the opening 5 games, the man advantage went dry, scoring just 4 goals in the final 13 games of Muller’s tenure, scoring a measly 11.43% of the time. The final 9 games were even worse, with just a single goal and a 4.76% success rate; nothing was working and the powerplay killed any momentum the Canadiens had accumulated.

Since Alex Burrows took over the powerplay duties, the Habs have excelled with the man advantage. They scored on three of their first 5 powerplays, which came in the first two games after the coaching change; just one less powerplay goal than they scored in the 13 previous games. In the 13 games since Burrows took over from Muller, the Habs have scored 10 powerplay goals, hitting a 34.48% success rate, which is elite.

The penalty kill is very different but nonetheless interesting. While it killed just 70.97% of the penalties in the final nine games of Julien’s tenure, its efficacy was 76.39% in the 18 games Julien coached. This number is nearly identical to the PK since the coaching change, which is 76.47% effective. Ideally, the penalty kill would be over 80% and the Habs certainly have the personnel to hit such an efficiency rate, but they haven’t.

The penalty kill certainly remains an issue, on Saturday, the Canucks scored on their sole powerplay as a result of Paul Byron missing his coverage of the prime passing lane between Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser, opting instead to stand in the high slot far from all 5 Vancouver attackers.

However, the best way to avoid conceding powerplay goals is to stay out of the box, and this is something the Habs have been far better at since Ducharme took charge. Under Julien, the Habs averaged exactly 4 minor penalties a game, since the coaching change, that figure has been 2.62. That’s 1.38 fewer penalties per game, or approximately 2:45 minutes less potential PK time per game, which is substantial.

The penalty kill will hopefully improve before the end of the season but the Habs have become far better at staying out of the box, while also scoring at a very high rate on the powerplay. Adding penalty kill and powerplay percentages can give you a sense of whether a team’s special teams as a whole are below or above average. Under Julien, that value was 94.57%, far from ideal, and in his final 9 games, it fell to 75.73%, which is horrendous. Since the coaching change, the team’s special teams value has been 110.95%, bringing the season total to 100.23%, a smidgen over par.

3. Xavier Ouellet and Alternative Options on Defence

In just about every advanced metric this season, Xavier Ouellet ranks 8th of the 8 defensemen to have played for the Habs. These metrics include Corsi For %, Goals For %, Shots For %, Expected Goals For % and High Danger Scoring Chances For %. In most of these, Ouellet finds himself in the high 30% range.

This basically means that the Canadiens have not at all been controlling the run of play or the momentum when Ouellet has stepped on the ice, and the same can be said about Mete, though the latter propped up his stats with a very strong outing against Vancouver on Saturday. The Canadiens’ top-6 defensemen that started the season have been significantly better than Mete and Ouellet so far this season. In Mete’s three previous seasons, he has always been above 50% in these metrics, though, so his struggles this year seem to be an anomaly.

Beyond advanced stats, however, Ouellet has looked out of place in the games he has played thus far, the defensive structure is rather shaky when he steps on the ice. His chemistry with Alex Romanov is virtually non-existent as well, which has not helped, in 35 minutes played together, their expected goals percentage is at a terrible 34.78%.

I have watched most of the Laval Rocket’s games this season and Ouellet has consistently been one of their worst defencemen, so his call-up was not exactly based on recent merit. He has really struggled so far this season and should be sent back down to the AHL.

While his pairing with Mete played surprisingly well in the bubble last summer, the same could be said about the rest of the defensive corps; Kulak-Petry dominated possession while Chiarot-Weber bullied opponents. The entire d-corps overperformed in the play-ins/play-offs. I believe that the Habs would be best off trading for a bonafide puck-moving left-shot defenseman, something the team needed even prior to Chiarot’s injury.

If this is not an option, then giving one of Otto Leskinen (who happens to be a puck-moving left-defenseman) or Cale Fleury (who would enable Romanov to play on his natural left side) a shot at the NHL lineup could be wise. Both have been playing very good hockey in Laval and would fit the Habs’ defensive needs better than Ouellet. The alternative to calling someone up would be to keep Victor Mete in the lineup, which would be my preferred patch.

The Edmundson-Weber pairing is even clunkier than the Chiarot-Weber pairing, which can easily be taken advantage of in the modern NHL. Mete is not the perfect defensive partner for Weber, as is clear by the fact that they have not played together in a year and a half, but the pair complement each other quite well. They make up for each-others significant faults and are more difficult to exploit than when apart.

I would quite like to see the Habs keep the Kulak-Petry pairing, for the time being, so bumping Mete up to the Weber pairing would push Edmundson down to the third with Romanov, which could be a really fun duo to watch: physical and defensively-sound. Another bonus of giving Mete that ice time would be to showcase him for a trade; he could be a decent piece in a move to acquire a more permanent solution at left-defence.

5. Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield is another dominant NCAA prospect who is likely to sign his entry-level contract with the Canadiens before the season ends. Before he does so, however, he will have his last hurrah with the Wisconsin Badgers in the NCAA national championship. If Wisconsin is eliminated early, Caufield could be on his way to Montreal quite soon, if they go all the way, Caufield would only be available to the Habs for the final handful of regular-season games and the playoffs.

This is, of course, if the Habs opt to bring Caufield straight to Montreal and burn a year of his entry-level contract. I am far more open to Montreal doing so with Caufield than with Harris. Defensemen generally need more time to develop and Caufield is a league above any other prospect in the Habs’ system, I think the chances of him holding down an NHL roster spot right away are quite high and I truly believe he would improve the current forward group.

While the Habs seem to have fixed their previously-static powerplay, Caufield could elevate it to elite, even as a rookie. He would likely be sheltered at 5v5, but he would be immensely helpful in overtime – something the Habs could really use – and he has the game-breaking shooting ability that no other Hab possesses, not even Weber, Petry or Kotkaniemi.

However, Caufield may be sent to the AHL first in order to acclimate to professional hockey along with Jordan Harris. If this is the case, I will likely tune into each Rocket game and Caufield will be able to gain experience before making a push for a roster spot in training camp next season.

Not since Carey Price have the Canadiens had a prospect where the sky truly is the limit. Caufield could very well become a consistent 25-30 goalscorer, to the disappointment of many Habs fans, but there is also a chance he consistently tops 40-goals, something no Hab since Vincent Damphousse has accomplished, though Tyler Toffoli may have cracked that had the 2020-21 season been a full 82-games.

6. Corey Perry

I am not ashamed to admit that I severely underestimated Corey Perry and his importance to this team when Marc Bergevin signed him to a one-year league-minimum deal. Perry was great in the playoffs for Dallas and has been even better to start the season with the Habs. In 24 games he has accumulated 6 goals and 12 points. He has 2 goals and 3 assists on the powerplay and has been integral to the Petry-Kotkaniemi unit’s success; it has scored 7 goals in the 12 games since Alex Burrows took over the powerplay duties.

While Perry has slowed down, he is still extremely intelligent with and without the puck and displays his skill at least once every game with a nifty toe-drag or dangle. His net-front screen ability is far superior to any other Canadiens forward, including Brendan Gallagher. In short, he has been more valuable to the Canadiens than any of Joel Armia, Paul Byron, Artturi Lehkonen or Jake Evans have. He has cemented his spot in the lineup.

He has also accumulated just 11 penalty minutes this season, so he isn’t hurting the team with his renowned indiscipline either. The veteran right-winger has been Marc Bergevin’s best bargain-bin signing, in my mind; better than Daniel Briere, Ales Hemsky, Mark Streit and most notably of all, Ilya Kovalchuk.

While Kovalchuk exploded upon his arrival, Perry has improved with every game and become integral to the lineup, which Kovalchik no longer was when he was traded. It should be noted, however, that Kovalchuk basically netted the Habs Jake Allen, so in terms of long-term value, his signing may end up being the best.

7. Brett Kulak

Brett Kulak is such an interesting defenseman. When he plays on the third pairing, his level of play ranges from mediocre to decent. When playing with Jeff Petry, however, he looks like a legitimate top-4 defenseman. It is certainly true that Petry makes most of his defensive partners look good, but it is a different level with Kulak. He plays with assertion and confidence on the team’s first pairing, whereas he is more indecisive and invisible on the third.

I have noticed Kulak more often in these few games since the Chiarot injury than I had in the 26 games prior; and for good reasons. Kulak had one magnificent slide in the 4-2 victory against Winnipeg to save a likely goal, he has been far more active offensively, carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating scoring opportunities and he has used his mobility to get out of sticky situations in the defensive zone.

All of these are things he has always done… when paired with Jeff Petry. In 82 5v5 minutes played with Petry this season, the Habs have scored 3 goals and allowed 2, while controlling 67.77% of the expected goals, the next best pairing to have played at least 60 minutes is the Edmundson-Petry pair with 55.83%, though the Habs scored a staggering 21 goals and conceded just 9 with them on the ice.

Over the past 2 seasons, of all Habs pairings to have played at least 60 minutes, Kulak-Petry still ranks first in xG% with 61.89. Through the same timespan and the same minimum threshold, the pairing ranks 21st in the league, but when bumping up the minimum minutes played to 500 (the pairing has played 625 5v5 minutes together since the start of 2019-20) they find themselves first in the league… by a lot.

The next best pairing in xG% is Jamie Oleksiak-Miro Heiskanen with 57.56%. Kulak Petry also comes in first in CF%, FF% and SF%, they dominate possession. Through this span, the Kulak-Petry pairing has only controlled 53.19% of the actual goals, well below their expectation, so their possession dominance hasn’t translated to dominance in actual goals, which is clearly more important but is less indicative of sustainability than expected goal metrics.

The Edmundson-Petry and Kulak-Petry pairings have both been phenomenal, the first dominates in actual goals scored and should regress while the second underperforms its expected goals and should improve even further. Either combination is a great option for the Habs and the decision of which player gets to play with Petry should be decided by seeing which of the two plays better with Weber… my guess is that Kulak’s mobility will be far more compatible with Weber’s play than Edmundson’s sturdy style.

All statistics sourced from NaturalStatTrick.