1) The second half is more important than the first!
Many will say it’s about how you start, not how you finish, and that’s true to some extent. Starting strong is going to be key, especially when you consider there’s no preseason and there are a lot of new faces on the Montreal Canadiens who will need to get used to each other. However, the 2012-13 shortened season showed us it’s not as important as we think.
When looking at the results of teams who made the playoffs, not all of them had the best start. In fact, the majority of them turned it on in the latter half except for the Ducks and Blackhawks, who won 18 and 21 of 24, respectively. The other qualifying teams had a mediocre start and won more of the remaining 24 games to make it on.
The Hurricanes are a cautionary tale of relying on a hot start. They won 14 of their first 24 games, which is fairly good, but only won 5 of 24 in the second half. They missed the playoffs.
Now you do need to win a certain amount of games to keep yourself in contention. The Sabres and Panthers, for example, only won 9 of their first 24, not nearly enough to stay in the hunt. It seems as if the lucky number of games to win was 10 back then, with the Blue Jackets being one of the exceptions who won 8 in the first half and 16 in the second, missing the playoffs by a small margin.
If we carry that over to a 56-game season, the Montreal Canadiens will need to win at least 12 of their first 28 games to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs.
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2) Priced out Allens
We can talk about all the moves Marc Bergevin made over the offseason, but the addition of Jake Allen was the most crucial one. Many argue that the team itself is more playoff-ready with the new skates upfront, but bringing on Jake Allen gave the Montreal Canadiens something crucial: more opportunities to rest Carey Price.
That was the biggest takeaway from the Return to Play. If Price is healthy, he can give you an opportunity to win, even against the league’s best. The Canadiens don’t get the opportunity to improve their overall play and beat the Pittsburgh Penguins if Price doesn’t stand on his head in those first two wins. The Habs don’t give themselves time to push the Philadelphia Flyers and figure out their weaknesses to extend the series without Price.
With how compact the season is going to be, the schedule will likely include a lot of back-to-backs. Claude Julien has made use of Price in both back-to-back games, not trusting the likes of Charlie Lindgren, Keith Kinkaid and Antti Niemi to get the job done. For now, he has an option he can trust.
Allen put up good numbers as a backup with the Blues, and that’s all you’re asking him to do: be an option to head in and get points for the club.