Who Will the Montreal Canadiens Select in the First Round?

The (first) 2020 NHL Entry Draft Lottery has gotten everyone thinking about the prospects who will be selected; thus, let us discuss who the Montreal Canadiens may pick.

Friday’s NHL Entry Draft Lottery presented all hockey fans with the first significant NHL event since the season was suspended on March 12th. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that the eyes and ears of millions of hockey fans were focused on the lottery that has historically refused to reward the teams at the very bottom of the NHL standings.

This year was no different, with the Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators missing not only the vied-for #1 pick but the #2 pick as well, with the LA Kings snatching the pick that will presumably enable them to select Quinton Byfield whenever the 2020 draft ends up taking place. To the dismay of many, the rights to select Alexis Lafreniere were given to a yet to be determined NHL organization that loses its play-in round.

What this means for the Montreal Canadiens is that if they lose to Crosby, Malkin and their Pittsburgh Penguins, which would take a pretty big upset not to occur, they will have a 12.5% chance at selecting a homegrown superstar in Alexis Lafreniere and an 87.5% chance at selecting ninth overall. Taking this into consideration, let us take a look at 8 players, separated into three tiers, who may put on the famed bleu blanc rouge in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft.

If the Montreal Canadiens lose to the Penguins and win the second part of the Draft Lottery two things are guaranteed:

1. The NHL will be accused of corruption for giving Montreal the first legitimate Quebecois superstar since the two Martins (St. Louis and Brodeur).
2. The Montreal Canadiens will draft Alexis Lafreniere; while a few scouts have made a case for Quinton Byfield to go first overall, few teams would dare pass up on Lafreniere, and the Canadiens most certainly are not among them. Can you imagine the backlash if they pass on this particular ‘ti gars d’ché nous?

While landing Lafreniere still feels like a bit of a pipedream, it is within the rather surprising realm of possibility, so it must be mentioned in this article. Now with all of this out of the way, let us take a little look at this special player.

Having grown up just north of Laval, Lafreniere would truly present the CH with a homegrown superstar, something they have lacked in this Millenium. Lafreniere dominated AAA hockey and was drafted first overall by the Rimouski Oceanic in 2017 at the age of 15.

As a QMJHL rookie, he put up what ended up being his major junior career-high of 42 goals in 60 games, to go along with 38 assists for 80 points, which equates to 1.33 points per game (PPG). The following season saw him put up 37 goals and 68 assists for 105 points and this in 61 games, giving him a stat line of 1.72 PPG. The Oceanic made the postseason that season and Lafreniere contributed 9 goals and 23 total points in 13 games (1.77 PPG). This past season, he accumulated 35 goals, 77 assists and 112 points in just 52 appearances (2.15 PPG). This shows a steady progression for the soon-to-be first-overall pick, becoming increasingly dominant every season.

One very interesting thing to take note of is that Lafreniere just the second-ever player to twice win the CHL player of the year award, one that has been handed out annually since 1974-75. The other? A kid who also played his major junior hockey in Rimouski, Sidney Crosby. It is no surprise that the sky is said to be the limit for this player. He has franchise-defining talent, and man do I hope for that franchise to be the Montreal Canadiens.

From one dominant OHL centreman to another. Cole Perfetti may well be taken as early as fourth overall, but when it comes to the NHL Entry Draft, you never know which prospects will fall, just that certain ones will. Put simply, Cole Perfetti is a Nick Suzuki with a significantly more lethal shot and a likely higher hockey IQ as well; and this is no slight to the Montreal Canadiens’ rookie, just a testament to how good Perfetti is.

The Whitby, ON native was known as a shoot-first type of player leading up to his draft year. For instance, he accumulated 37 goals, 37 assists and 72 points in 63 games last season (1.14 PPG). However, he modified his playstyle going into this past season and following a dominant Hlinka-Gretzky performance (8 goals, 4 assists in 5 games for 2.4 PPG), the change proved to pay dividends, as he “only” matched his goal tally from the previous season, but his assist total precisely doubled, with 74, giving him 111 points in 61 games (1.82 PPG).

Two other reasons for which I make the Suzuki comparison are because the biggest drawback to both players entering their respective drafts has been their just average skating ability and acceleration as well as their average frame that is accompanied with surprising lower-body strength, making it difficult for opponents to bully them in puck battles. Suzuki went 13th overall in 2017 following a 65 game campaign with Owen Sound in which he scored 45 times and added 51 assists for 96 points (1.48 PPG).

It was not until his draft+2 season that Suzuki began to focus a lot more on his playmaking ability when he racked up 34 goals and 60 assists for 94 points in 59 games split between Owen Sound and Guelph (1.59 PPG). He followed this up with an absolutely dominant display in the OHL playoffs en-route to a championship and a Memorial Cup appearance. He scored 16 goals and added 26 assists for 42 points in just 24 games (1.75 PPG). He added 3 goals and 4 assists in 4 Memorial Cup games. I am delving into the details to demonstrate how Suzuki’s play hit another gear when he modified his game to be more focused on playmaking, which has allowed him to more easily translate his strengths to the NHL level.

It is an indication of Perfetti’s maturity to have made this same modification to his game two full years earlier than a quite mature player in the elder Suzuki brother. Given Perfetti’s statistics – and the determination he displayed in pursuing his schooling at a high level alongside hockey, being named the OHL’s student-athlete of the year – it is no surprise that the player is highly-touted and in most other years, he’d be a lock to go top-3, but as most media outlets have mentioned countless times, the top-end of this year’s draft is extraordinarily strong. This being said, any team picking from 4th onward would make a very good selection in Perfetti, and if the Habs end up with him, I will be one happy camper!

I must admit, being surrounded by North American media, more articles and scouting reports on players who play here catch my attention. Thus, I am not quite as familiar with Alexander Holtz and his Swedish compatriots as I am with other players in this draft. However, what I have seen of Holtz (3 full games to go along with game recaps and highlight reels) has consistently left me impressed.

The 6’0″, 183 lbs Swede is the most highly-touted pure goalscorer of his draft class and outperformed his Swedish counterparts Lucas Raymond and Noel Gunler on the scoresheet in the SHL this past season, accumulating 9 goals and 7 assists in 35 games against men (0.46 PPG). In the three games he played in the Swedish u20 league this season, he scored 7 goals and added 2 assists.

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Holtz’s SHL point output matched that of two highly touted 2019 draftees in defenceman Victor Soderstrom (11th overall Arizona) and forward Nils Hoglander (40th overall Vancouver) and was just one point behind Dominik Bokk (25th overall St. Louis 2018) who was the centrepiece of the package that brought Justin Faulk to the Blues just a season ago. This is good company to be in, considering that Holtz is a year younger than two of them and two years the junior of the other.

However, when looking beyond the cold, hard output, Holtz struck me as a determined and effective player in the little ice time he was given as a bottom-six contributor. He has a wicked shot, and not only employs it to beat unscreened goaltender by picking out the top corner, but he also uses it to mesmerize defenders into opening dangerous passing lanes, which he then exploits. He is a fairly mobile player with good skating but does not have a blistering top speed or acceleration.

One area that he will need to improve is his physicality, just like most 18-year-olds draftees. He has a really sturdy frame, but was outmuscled a little bit too often for my liking; however, he played against men while the top CHL prospects did not, so he may very well be on the fast track to improve this area of his game.

Whichever team drafts him will get a smart player who will be very dangerous on the powerplay and could very well put up 35+ goals in six years’ time. Imagine having Caufield on the first line and powerplay unit a few years down the road with Holtz taking on the second line duties, quite a lethal one-two punch down the right side; left-handed defenders will have some nightmares.

Jake Sanderson is the final player in this tier of players that may very well be off the board by the point the ninth overall pick rolls around. He has been a late riser, solidifying himself as the clear second-best defenseman of the draft class, with many scouts saying that the dropoff from Drysdale to Sanderson is small compared to that between Sanderson and the rest of the pack; with some even suggesting that Sanderson be the best defenseman available this year.

One comparison I’ve seen floating around a lot between Sanderson and a current NHLer has been to a man originally drafted by the Montreal Canadiens, in Ryan McDonagh, who has established himself as a very good #2 defenseman for nearly a decade. While last year’s draft was highlighted by a myriad of top USNTDP prospects, this year’s crop features Sanderson as the only top prospect from the program.

The 6’1″, 185 lbs left-handed defenseman was dominant this past season as the captain of the US National U18 Team, racking up 7 goals and 22 assists in 47 games (0.62 PPG) and added another 2 goals and 14 assists for 16 points in 19 games (0.84 PPG) with the USNTDP in the USHL. What makes these statistics all the more impressive is that he accumulated them as a 17-year-old on a team far weaker than that we saw last year, Sanderson only turns 18 on July 08th.

For comparison’s sake, let us take a look at Cam York, the top USNTDP defenseman of the 2019 draft class, who was selected by the Philadelphia Flyers 14th overall, was 6 months older than Sanderson in their respective draft years and was surrounded by 6 fellow eventual first-round draft picks including five who went among the top 15. York, unsurprisingly outproduced Sanderson, putting up 33 points, including 7 goals in 28 USHL games (1.18 PPG).

However, it is important to note that among all USNTDP players to play at least 15 USHL games this season, none produced at a point per game pace, and Sanderson was very close. Last year, 8 players managed that feat, including York, with Cole Caufield managing to put up over a goal per game and Jack Hughes producing at an exactly 2 points per game pace. With this added context, Sanderson’s 0.84 PPG seems rather impressive next to Cam York’s 1.18.

Sanderson’s skating has also left me more impressed than York’s did, and his defensive game is quite mature, especially for a still 17-year-old athlete. Sanderson is quite a prototypical 2-way defender and has a relatively low floor. My personal evaluation (which comes from watching 9 full games of him playing) would be that he has the potential to be a #1 defenseman, will likely max out as a #2 but will be no worse than a #4. While I would prefer the Habs to select a forward in this draft, if they end up with Sanderson, I would not be disappointed. My hot take for the 2020 draft, however, is that Sanderson will be off the board by the time that Buffalo steps up to make the eighth overall selection.

This second tier of players who the Montreal Canadiens’ brass may be tempted to select ninth overall consists of players who will likely still be available, barring a team in the top 8 taking a reach or drafting for a position of need. The first player we’ll cover is a really interesting one, who has drawn comparisons to the Canadiens’ own Jesperi Kotkaniemi, which I broke down and analyzed in an article last month.

Lundell has, over the past two seasons, accumulated 19 goals and 28 assists for 47 points through 82 professional games as a 17 and 18-year-old, not bad at all. This means that he tallied  0.573 PPG in two Liiga seasons, while Kotkaniemi put up 0.509 in just one season. I am not trying to argue that Lundell has a higher ceiling offensively than Kotkaniemi, or vice-versa. My argument is that the offensive side of Lundell’s game has been underappreciated and that his portrayal as a player who can rise no higher than a second-line player in the NHL is unfair.

As my article and this particular excerpt make fairly clear, I like Anton Lundell a lot as a prospect, not necessarily for the Montreal Canadiens – though I’d gladly add him to the team’s ever-growing prospect pool – but any team with the wish to add a prospect with the potential to become a Phillip Danault or maybe even a Ryan O’Reilly should take a shot on this particular Finn.

While the Canadiens have collected quite a few very good young centres (Domi, Kotkaniemi, Suzuki) on top of those who project to make the roster in the upcoming years such as Cam Hillis, Ryan Poehling and Jake Evans (who may very well cement his spot in the lineup during the play-in), centres are valuable assets and teams should never shy away from adding another good piece at the position if the opportunity presents itself. And don’t be mistaken, Anton Lundell is a good piece.

Lundell’s defensive capabilities have been widely advertised, and they truly are impressive. Among the approximately 25 top forward draft-eligible prospects I have kept my eye on over the past season (those who I have watched at least 3 full games of), Lundell was, without a doubt, the calmest and most consistent defensive performer, and this while playing against men. While many wish to see dazzling offensive plays from forwards projected to be selected among the top 15 of any NHL draft, adding a defensive specialist centreman to a lineup can pay off in a big way.

One example of this that came to the attention of many younger hockey fans for the first time this past season (myself included) is that of Guy Carbonneau in the 1992-93 Stanley Cup run due to his induction to the Hockey Hall of Fame. He only potted 3 goals and 3 assists in 20 games on that particular run but played a key role in shutting down the opposition’s top players, including a certain Wayne Gretzky.

Of course, it would be irrational to go out and proclaim Lundell as the next Carbonneau when the kid can’t even legally buy a drink in Ontario yet, but writing him off as a potentially great player due to a lower offensive upside compared to other talents available in this draft would not be wise.

And this limited offensive upside isn’t even all that limited. Sure, he may not be a point per game player at his peak, but neither is Ryan O’Reilly. Lundell was the top U18 point producer in Liiga this past season by a decent margin, and this is not spoken of enough, this kid could possibly develop into a 65-point 2-way beast, and when picking at or around tenth overall, that is some pretty nice upside.

This is the weird one: the goalie. If the Habs were to select Askarov with pick #9, he would be goaltender selected with the highest pick since 2005, when a current Hab went 5th overall. Just like with Spencer Knight last year, the Carey Price comparisons are abundant with Askarov in regards to his style and temperament. I watched him dominate the Hlinka-Gretzky (he allowed just 5 goals in 4 games and produced a .960 SV%), and I admired these exact qualities.

However, those who have only been exposed to the young Russian at the World Juniors may not be all that convinced, and I was surprised at the difference between his performances in the two national team tournaments; Askarov played five world junior games and posted a mediocre 2.77 GAA and a poor .877 SV%. These stats in no way scream “best goalie prospect since Price”, but it must be taken into account that these two tournaments make up just 9 of the 28 games he played this past season.

I will be honest, I was unable to watch any of his other 19 games, but the stat sheet gives a good enough idea of how he performed. He played the overwhelming majority of the season in the VHL, which is the KHL’s equivalent of the AHL. In Askarov’s 18 games with SKA St. Petersburg’s minor league affiliate, he posted a seemingly impressive .920 SV% and a 2.45 GAA. It is important to note, however, that goaltender stats are generally quite high in the VHL.

According to Quanthockey.com, 72 goaltenders played at least 14 VHL games this season, 44 of which posted a .920 SV% or higher, so it is not as though Askarov’s stats particularly stood out among those of all VHL goaltenders. The league’s top goaltender, by a fair margin too, was 22-year-old Vladislav Gross, who put up a .956 SV% and a 1.40 GAA in 25 games for Gornyak Uchaly; and even he struggled in his two KHL appearances posting a 5.16 GAA and a .812 SV% for Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg.

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This is just to say that Askarov’s numbers don’t at all jump off the page and that a more experienced goalie who played more games than him and utterly dominated Askarov’s own league struggled in the limited amount of KHL play he saw. However, in Askarov’s single KHL appearance, he thrived, unlike Gross, allowing just two goals on the 25 shots he encountered, giving him a .920 SV%.

The statistic that most supports Askarov’s case to be a high draft pick is that he is the only 17-year-old goalie to ever play more than 8 VHL games. The goalie who played 8 games was Pyotr Kochetkov, who was selected as an almost 20-year-old by the Carolina Hurricanes at 36th overall in last year’s NHL Entry Draft, and he had a .918 SV% in his 17-year-old season. Due to the extent of games Askarov played in the VHL as a 17-year-old, he could prove to be a special talent.

It is well known that goalies take longer to develop, with most top goaltenders only encountering regular NHL action 4-6 years after being drafted. This particular timeline could actually fit the Habs quite well, with Carey Price’s huge contract running for another 6 seasons. Despite Askarov’s 18 VHL games as a 17-year-old, I can’t say I’m fully convinced. Any team that selects him will be taking a big gamble; he may very well bust, but he could also be the steal of the draft and become the next star goaltender coming out of Russia.

It is important for scouting departments to balance risk and reward, and based on the other extremely talented players that would make for far safer picks that will inevitably be available to the team that selects ninth overall, I just wouldn’t feel comfortable selecting the goalie. It will be fascinating though to see just how high, or low, he goes in the draft because it could be anywhere between 5th and 35th overall, though the higher end of the range seems more likely at this moment in time.

Seth Jarvis is a player I didn’t expect to mention when speaking of potential top 10 picks at the start of this season, or even at its halfway point, for that matter. But the 5’10”, 172 lbs right-winger consistently climbed the rankings, jumping eight spots to #11 on the NHL Central Scouting’s final rankings for North American skaters in comparison to their midterm list.

Jarvis played for the WHL’s strongest team in the standings this past season in Portland. However, unlike many prospects playing on dominant teams such as the Ottawa 67s or last year’s USNTDP, Jarvis’ stats were not hugely inflated. Jarvis scored a total of 98 points, including 42 goals in just 58 games (1.69 PPG), making him the league’s second top scorer, behind just Adam Beckman, a 2019 3rd round pick for Minnesota, who racked up 48 goals and 107 total points in 63 games (1.70 PPG); interestingly the two players sported nearly identical PPGs.

Including Beckman, only 7 players outproduced Jarvis in the entire CHL, with the others being Marco Rossi, Alexis Lafreniere, Cole Perfetti, Connor McMichael, Philip Tomasino and Alexander Khovanov, with the latter three having been drafted in the past two years by NHL teams. Of all first-year NHL draft-eligible prospects in the CHL, only Jack Quinn of the Ottawa 67s scored more goals than Jarvis, with 52 in 62 games. It should be noted that Quinn was born just three days after the cutoff for the 2019 NHL draft and is nearly six months older than Jarvis.

Going back to Jarvis carrying Portland rather than the inverse, the next highest producer on the team was LW Jaydon Dureau, who put up 70 points, including 19 goals in 61 games. The next best goalscorer was centreman Reece Newkirk who accumulated 29 goals along with 65 total points in 55 games. So Jarvis really led the charge in terms of goalscoring as well as in creating opportunities for teammates.

So what is his playstyle? In the 4 games I watched of the Portland Winterhawks, the thing that most impressed me was undoubtedly Jarvis’ speed. This kid is fast, like All-Star weekend fastest skater winning fast. His skating was a notch above his competition and teammates, allowing him to skate literal circles around opposing players with the puck. Pair this speed with excellent agility, and you have yourself a really dangerous winger.

Given his excellent output in terms of goals this past season, one would think that he has a wicked shot, which he doesn’t. His shot is better than good, but it is not on the same level as those of some other draft-eligible prospects like the aforementioned Quinn and Holtz. He scores his goals by being extremely aware of how the play is developing, he jumps on any opportunity given to him and capitalizes, with his speed catching the opposition off guard quite regularly.

This offensive awareness is also the reason for his very good playmaking ability. Despite dominating the WHL and frankly being significantly better than his competition and his teammates, he did not strike me as a selfish player. Sure, he sometimes held on to the puck a little too long and tried to force a play but on a far less regular basis than other top prospects.

Seth Jarvis is a very well-rounded player already and has an extremely high ceiling, his draft year PPG of 1.69 was higher than Leon Draisaitl’s 1.64 in his draft year in the WHL and Draisaitl went 3rd overall. It is a testament to just how strong this draft class is that placing Jarvis among the 10 best prospects available almost seems like a hot take. I am, however, higher on him than most, as I would personally rank him as the 8th best prospect of the draft, right behind Lundell, Perfetti and Rossi but ahead of Raymond, Sanderson and Holtz (barely).

It is interesting to note though, that there is little consensus among scouts and analysts on the 5 to 12 range of this draft, which shows how good all the players in this range are. It is not that those 7 or so players are of the quality of an average tenth overall pick; had they been eligible for drafts not as deep as this one, they would all go in the top 5, so there is very little room to make a bad pick in this range of the draft.

Of course, some of these players will eventually bust, but I am quite confident in saying that the number of 2020 top 15 picks that bust will be far below the average. Many, many teams are going to add a cornerstone to their organizations for the next 15 years in the first round of this year’s draft. Wherever the Montreal Canadiens do end up picking, be it 1, 9, 16, etc., they are going to add an extremely valuable piece.

All statistics are taken from EliteProspects.com unless stated otherwise.