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Can Joel Armia sustain this goal scoring for the Montreal Canadiens?

By Omar L

MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Montreal Canadiens right wing Joel Armia (40) celebrates his goal with his teammates at the bench during the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2019, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC - OCTOBER 26: Montreal Canadiens right wing Joel Armia (40) celebrates his goal with his teammates at the bench during the Toronto Maple Leafs versus the Montreal Canadiens game on October 26, 2019, at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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OTTAWA, ON – SEPTEMBER 21: Montreal Canadiens Joel Armia (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

In this case, the “but” falls within two areas. The first being his shooting percentage, and the second being his PDO.

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Ignoring this season, Armia has had a career shooting percentage of about 8.9% (39 goals on 435 shots). His six goals on 26 shots have his shooting percentage at a ridiculously high 23.1%, raising his career average to 10% on the dot.

Some players naturally have high shooting percentages. Alexander Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and T.J. Oshie are a few examples. Even Paul Byron was used to having a relatively high shooting percentage. The difference was there was a larger sample of it, reducing the possibility of it being a lucky stretch.

Armia going from 9.7% to 23.1% is the definition of a jump.

PDO is another stat that comes up a lot when analysts try to determine whether a player or team’s production is sustainable. All players and teams will eventually see their PDO hover around 100 (or 1.00 depending on what site you’re looking at). There’s room for slight variations, but everything will eventually reach that median value.

A team or player with a PDO greatly below 100 suggests they are getting a lot of bad luck, whereas a PDO greatly above suggests that they have a bunch of four-leaf clovers in their locker. Armia’s PDO at 5v5 is 108.3, which hints at the forward getting a lot of bounces that are going his way.

This doesn’t mitigate what he’s produced, but it should make fans raise an eyebrow a bit. Armia continuing to score at this pace would see him net another 47 goals. That would be wild and not something I think he is capable of; however, that doesn’t mean Armia can’t hit the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career.

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He’s as confident as ever, and he’s using the tools that made him a first-round pick in the first place. As long as Armia continues to do that, he will be a threat every time Claude Julien gives him the tap.

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick

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