Predicting who will lead the Montreal Canadiens in scoring
The Montreal Canadiens are a month into the 2018/19 season, and there have been clear standouts, and early candidates for the team lead in scoring.
We’re a month into the season, and the Montreal Canadiens are far from the team many thought they’d be.
They keep coming and driving and skating leading to some very entertaining hockey. We can talk about the system and defensive structure, but when you win a game in the final minutes of the third, there’s nothing you can do but cheer.
Perhaps clutch victories are going to be the Habs new secret weapon. The Washington Capital game will make it the second time it’s happened this year. Brendan Gallagher started that out after converting on a Colton Parayko turnover in the defensive zone to score with seconds remaining in regulation, and Max Domi took his turn against the Washington Capital with a shot that beat Brayden Holtby.
That could be one interesting conversation, but we’re going to discuss some other things surrounding the team in the latest installment of the A Winning Habit Roundtable.
For starters, can the Habs continue to produce and execute at this pace all season? There won’t be any questions as to whether they make the playoffs or not if they do as it’s been a winning formula early on. Additionally, what do we make of Jordie Benn and who will end up leading the team in scoring?
1) How impressed are you with the way the Montreal Canadiens have been playing so far this season and can they keep it up?
Kamal Rehman: I’ve been very impressed with how the Habs have been playing. Even in losses, their play has been fast and energetic. One can say the Sabres game didn’t show that style of play, but that was a classic trap game as the Montreal Canadiens really seemed like they were looking towards the Saturday game against the Bruins. And boy, did that ring true. The Habs looked like their normal early season selves as they played a gem against the B’s.
Their play has shown a new style and strategy that the Habs have not shown in years. Their speed catches so many teams off guard and has been a great weapon. They also are playing a type of game where they take the play to the other team and not a “let Carey try to stop everything, and we’ll try to win 1-0” type of game. They no longer play a docile game. I like it. It’s exciting. Win or lose.
A lot of pundits have been saying, “But can they keep it up?” They say it’s impossible to play like that for 82 games. Maybe so. Maybe not. I will say they’ve been playing well without Carey needing to be elite and they’ve been playing well without…oh, a certain number one elite defenseman in Shea Weber. Think about that.
Zack Cook: It would be hard to say you aren’t impressed with what the Montreal Canadiens have accomplished early on this season. Some of us expected the team to be a lot more entertaining, and they have certainly fit the bill, but few expected them to be this competitive. A combination of strong goaltending and a team that skates well is certainly a recipe for success in today’s NHL. The true test will come for this team when they hit the dog days of the season in January, and we’ll see if they continue to put up this kind of effort on any given night.
Mark Darling: I must admit it’s hard not be impressed with Montreal’s early-season play, considering all the dismal projections for this year’s edition of les Canadiens. But let’s try to keep things in perspective, folks.
Realistically, Montreal’s current pace is simply not sustainable. Let’s be honest.
Montreal is currently on pace for 109 points, which equates to a 38-point increase from last season. FYI, Toronto and Washington both finished with 105 points last year, tied for third in the Eastern Conference.
Montreal’s offence is currently averaging over three goals per game and is on pace to top 270. In terms of personal stats, Max Domi is on pace for 80+ points, Jeff Petry is primed to top 70 points, and Brendan Gallagher is the early favourite for the Rocket Richard Trophy as he is currently on pace for a 61-goal campaign. And while we’re at it, Noah Juulsen will finish +48 for the year. Not bad for a beginner.
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Simply put, the Montreal Canadiens cannot keep up this pace, but that does not necessarily mean a tailspin either. October was a short month with a relatively easy schedule, and the Habs caught some teams by surprise. If they keep winning, the element of surprise will quickly fade.
November poses a much tougher slate, including games against many of the beasts of the East and a week-long western road trip thrown in for good measure. Moustache month will be the first real test of this young team’s mettle.
If Montreal can just play .500 hockey through November, there may be light at the end of the tunnel as December promises a shorter, easier schedule and hopefully the healthy return of Shea Weber.
Omar White: The easiest and most widely used answer to this question is: yes, I’m thoroughly impressed with the Montreal Canadiens. Their approach to the season is different as Claude Julien, and the rest of the coaching staff have identified a common strength within the lineup and made efforts to bring it out the most. That being team speed.
But it’s more than telling the players to skate as hard as you can. They transition the puck with speed; they enter the zone with speed, the d-men are playing a lot more aggressive and getting back in position in time to prevent off-man rushes. However, it also comes down to more awareness on the ice and the fact that they’re converting on their scoring chances which were something the Habs had little of last season.
It hasn’t been perfect. There are games like what we saw against the Dallas Stars where miscues and breakdowns put Carey Price in a bad position, and a goal is scored. But overall, the Habs look dialled in and focused.
It’s still too early though to say whether they’re a lock for the playoffs despite the fact that the legendary US Thanksgiving milestone is in four weeks.
Now there’s a small deep thought that is also not surprised by how the Montreal Canadiens have looked. Many on the team had something to prove, and that includes the newcomers. Tatar had a bad stint in Vegas, Domi couldn’t get his scoring touch back from his rookie season, and Armia was confined to a bottom-six role in Winnipeg.
I don’t think the Habs will stray from how they’ve played. But I also don’t know for sure whether they can continue scoring at this rate and time of games. It’ll be an interesting story to follow though.
2) What have you made of Jordie Benn?
KR: I am going to say it, and I can’t believe I’m going to say it. Jordie Benn has been good. He hasn’t been stellar, but Benn has impressed me! I was ready to get Jordie and his beard an Uber to the nearest airport, but he’s impressed me. He stood up Auston Matthews a couple of times, stopped Evgeni Malkin, and had a big tilt with Patrick Maroon.
He’s hustled back defensively, plays the last minutes of the game to hold down a lead, and has solidified and justified his place as a top-six defenseman on the Habs. Benn has also managed to fit in with the faster-paced version of the Canadiens. I thought he’d be rotating in and out of the line-up, but I don’t see him coming out anytime soon…and he shouldn’t.
MD: Jordie Benn has truly upped his game so far this season and is playing with all the dedication and intensity that an underpaid veteran in a contract year could possibly muster. Now that he’s added the ‘no-look bank shot empty-netter’ to his repertoire, the sky is officially the limit.
Seriously, Benn’s early-season play has definitely been a pleasant surprise and hasn’t gone unnoticed by coach Julien who has steadily increased Benn’s ice time as the season has progressed, culminating in his promotion to top line duties alongside Jeff Petry for much of the Boston and Dallas games.
Julien is using Benn wisely, pairing him with offensive partners who can then pinch or join the rush, with Benn staying back to hold down the fort. So far, the plan is working to perfection as Benn has embraced his role wholeheartedly and is chipping in with some quality PK minutes to boot.
The immediate return of Juulsen and the eventual return of Weber will undoubtedly decrease his ice time going forward, but his early-season play bodes well for the team’s defensive depth this year and for Benn in the long run as he seeks to land a lucrative, multi-year deal next summer.
Despite all the criticism of his play last year, Benn still managed to avoid enough benchings and public stonings to suit up for 77 games. He finished with a very decent-2 for the season, which is actually quite respectable considering the team’s well-documented struggles and the motley, uninspired, dysfunctional crew that surrounded him most nights.
So maybe Benn wasn’t as bad as advertised last season and isn’t so new and improved this year. Perhaps he’s still the dependable, mid-tier, stay-at-home defenceman that he always was. Maybe it’s the new team philosophy and the new teammates that have lit his beard on fire.
ZC: Surprisingly, he’s been quite effective in his role this season, and he’s actually put up nice numbers in the analytics community as well. I think that with what the Montreal Canadiens have on the backend, he can continue to find success. That is as long as he doesn’t try to do too much and his workload stays at a reasonable level.
OW: Benn stood out to me while playing with Xavier Ouellet on the bottom pair. He looked like the defenceman the Montreal Canadiens originally traded for back in 2016 as being a steady support guy. And it was beyond his ability to be physical against the opposition. There was a point where he was among the league-leaders in Corsi-For (CF%), Scoring Chances-For (SCF%), High-Danger Chances For (HDCF%), and Expected Goals For (xGF%).
Several of those stats have come down to earth for Benn, but he still is second in xGF%.
It helped early on that Benn’s Quality of Competition decreased as he was matching up against other team’s bottom pairs with a lot of offensive zone starts. That’s changed with his promotion to the top pairing beside Petry, but he still looks comfortable and hasn’t made too many errors in the role. At least not as much as he did last season.
Whether it’s because of the contract-year boost or a return of self-confidence, Benn has looked steady, and he’s helping the team win hockey games.
3) Who is your early bid to end up being the team leader in points and goals?
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KR: I think Domi will continue to lead and end up being the team’s point leader. He brings so much creativity and speed to the Habs. The chemistry he has with Drouin should only get better. Plus, I see him getting a lot more points on the powerplay when Weber comes back if Julien chooses to have the captain on the point.
I think we’ll see a repeat for team’s goal leader with Gallagher ending up with at least 30 again. He’s scoring in different ways as well as areas in the offensive zone. This goal scoring variety should allow him to reach the mark again.
ZC: I think this race will come down to Brendan Gallagher and Jonathan Drouin. Gallagher has a nose for the net and the dirty areas, and he’s quietly off to another torrid start to this season. Drouin, on the other hand, has an immense amount of skill, and I personally think were just seeing the start of something with this player. For consistency purposes, I’ll say Brendan Gallagher, only because he’s shown me more thus far in the goal scoring department. In regards to points, Max Domi, and Drouin will likely be the two top scorers for the Montreal Canadiens. I expect Drouin to briefly come out on top, just because I like his high-end skill more than Domi’s.
MD: My money’s on Jonathan Drouin for both goals and total points. I’m doubling down on Drouin. In my opinion, he’s the most offensively gifted forward on the Montreal Canadiens and will command first line PP time as well as significant OT minutes, two factors which give him a distinct advantage over many of his teammates when it comes to prime point-producing opportunities.
And let’s not forget this kid was chosen third overall in the 2013 draft, so he’s got the pedigree. I’m optimistically projecting around 70 points for JD with a relatively even ratio of goals to assists.
OW: I’ll go off the board and say Tatar even though right now it makes sense to have Drouin or Domi as the leader. His chemistry with Gallagher has almost seemed instantaneous, and they play off each other so well. I always expected Tatar to score or at least get close to 20 this season, as he usually does.
If Gallagher continues to score at this pace and puts up another 30, it’s hard not to think Tatar won’t have his name on them through assists.
The winning formula for them early on has been simple but effective. Tatar takes the shot, they crash the net, and Gallagher goes to work. He’s very versatile in the blue paint, and they both play off each other to recover pucks and get them, past goaltenders.
Next. Jay Baruchel may be right. dark
The Habs top line looks as if there are zero chances of it slowing down. If Tatar can score and continue to get apples off Gallagher on 5v5 and hopefully more on the man advantage, he could get to a point where he’s leading the Montreal Canadiens in scoring. I mean, he was at one point already.