Montreal Canadiens: The Likelihood That Paul Byron Scores 22 Again

Paul Byron’s 22 goals this past season was a pleasant surprise for the Montreal Canadiens, but was it for real or a fluke?

Claiming a player off waivers is always a shot in the dark. The chances of finding a gem are fairly low because you could argue that if there was something there, the player wouldn’t have been on waivers in the first place. Luckily, the Montreal Canadiens struck gold when they claimed Paul Byron from the Calgary Flames.

Byron became one of the best waiver pick-ups in the eyes of many Habs fans. He had a breakout season with 22 goals and 21 assists in 81 games. This was double the goal production he had the season before where he scored 11 goals and 7 assists.

When looking into the future of Byron with the Montreal Canadiens, there’s one question flowing around him. Can he do it again?

Related Story: Top 10 Goals of the Season

Breaking Down the Stats

The wishful thinking answer is hopefully. Goal scoring is a premium in the NHL. Byron being a consistent 20-goal scorer while only making $1.167 million per year would be a steal. There is one aspect of Bryon’s stats that may be concerning: his shooting percentage.

The 28-year-old had the second highest shooting percentage in the league for the 2016-2017 season at 22.9%. This is extremely high considering the league average was 9.02% (via sportingcharts.com). A saving grace is that this isn’t the first time Byron has had a shooting percentage that was so high. It was 22% the year before, but obviously didn’t lead to the same results.

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The rule of thumb is that when a player has an abnormally high percentage in anything, eventually they fall back to where they’re meant to be. However, Byron doesn’t really have a safe zone of normality in his percentages.

Many people will say that Byron won’t match his totals because of that high shooting percentage. But there’s one thing to keep in mind. Byron doesn’t shoot the puck much.

The Ottawa-native was 13th on the Montreal Canadiens roster in shots with 96 shots. That was 172 less than Max Pacioretty who led the team in scoring with 33 goals (shooting at 13.1%). In his debut season with the Habs, Byron was 18th with only 50 shots.

It would be harder to believe in Byron’s scoring ability if he had as much shots as Pacioretty with the same shooting percentage. However, from the looks of it, Byron generally shoots to score. Or if he’s on one of his many breakaways.

You may not have to be worried as to whether Byron can keep this up. It’s totally possible that he will finish within the same area of scoring next season.

Next: Top 10 Marc Bergevin Trades

Do you think Byron can score 20 again for the Montreal Canadiens? If not, what are his point margins? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

Player stats from Hockey-Reference.com and player salary from Capfriendly.com.