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Alexander Semin: Montreal Canadiens’ “Sniper” Under Pressure

By Mat Germain

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Mar 19, 2015; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman

Tom Gilbert

(77) and Carolina Hurricanes right wing

Alexander Semin

(28) battle for the puck during the third period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports

Alexander Semin: Canadiens’ “Sniper” Under Pressure

Alexander Semin was drafted 13th overall in the 2002 draft by the Washington Capitals. Montreal’s pick at 14 was Christopher Higgins. The only impactful mainstay in the NHL selected after Higgins in the 1st rd was Cam Ward at 25, so both teams did well with Semin and Higgins.

There’s really only one reason for the signing of Alexander Semin in Montreal, to score goals. As Marc Bergevin stated:

"“Alex is a pure goal scorer with a good shot,” and “His signing represents a great opportunity for the organization and for Alex’s career.”"

He doesn’t mention Semin as a shot blocker, as a physical player, or as a two-way player. He is a Sniper through-and-through, and that’s what brought him in to Montreal.

Well, that and the buy low-cost of his contract, $1.1 million to be exact.

The problem I have with the expectations placed on Alexander Semin is as follows: the Carolina Hurricanes also need a sniper more than anything at this point, and I know their GM is Ron Francis, so how bad is he when they’re willing to swallow so much money to get rid of him altogether? And how will that change by bringing him to a city with so many distractions and at least five times the pressure?

Ron Francis had this to say before the decision to let Semin go was made:

"“We’re looking at all the options. Is it best to keep [Semin] here or should we do something else? At the right time we’ll do what’s best for our organization.”"

As a result of the buyout, the Hurricanes owe him $14 million over the next 6 years but definitely free up a lot of money to use this year and next. This is all on the heels of a 5-year goal scoring slide, not 1 or 2 years, that he has experienced from his time as a Capital player to his time as a Hurricane.

Before I continue, here are his best 10 goals:

LAST 5 SEASONS

I’d like to rewind the clock shortly to a time when he played on the opposite wing of Alexander Ovechkin and had ample opportunity to score on the PP in Washington. The time was in 2010-11, the first season that saw Semin’s goal scoring touch slip away slightly. He had just scored 40 goals the previous year, had an impressive 84 points, and even managed a nice +36. Of his goals, 8 came on the PP and more impressively he added 2 more while SH. From that point forward, he managed the following stats (change in brackets):

  • 2010-11: GP 65 (-8), G 28 (-12), A 26 (-18), Pts 54 (-30), PP G 6 (-2), ATOI 18:04
  • 2011-12: GP 77 (+12), G 21 (-7), A 33 (+7), Pts 54 (0), PP G 2 (-4), ATOI 16:47
  • 2012-13: GP 44 (-33), G 13 (-8), A 31 (-2), Pts 44 (-10), PP G 4 (+2), ATOI 20:57
  • 2013-14: GP 65 (+21), G 22 (+9), A 20 (-11), Pts 42 (-2), PP G 6 (+2), ATOI 19:55
  • 2014-15: GP 57 (-8), G 6 (-16), A 13 (-7), Pts 19 (-23), PP G 0 (-6), ATOI 15:55

Difference from 2010-11 to 2014-15:

  • GP -8, G -24, A -13, Pts -35, PP G -6, ATOI -02:09

And yet, at an aging badly 31 years old, if you listen to what fans and media paint him as, he’s going to be Montreal’s new Sniper on the top line and will improve their offensive output.

The same player who was a healthy scratch on one of the worst teams in the NHL. The same player that couldn’t get any other NHL team to pay him more than $1.1 million. The same player that had other NHL GMs walk away and indicate that he’s not worth the investment despite the rampant need for scoring and Cap issues faced across the NHL.

Excuse me while I hold my applause for Marc Bergevin’s acquisition until he puts in a complete season in Montreal and proves he can still provide the Habs with 20-25 goals including an improvement on the power-play.

Alexander Semin spoke with Andrei Markov before agreeing to terms with Montreal and has indicated they want to bring a Stanley Cup to the city. I hope his wish comes true, but he’s going to have to turn back the clock quite a bit to get the team there. In my opinion, if you can’t make things work in Washington with guys like Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, and you can’t make it work in Carolina with guys like Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner, you’ve got some serious issues as a player.

EXPECTATIONS

There’s a good chance that Semin will perform to some degree. After all, he’s got the pressure of his entire career on his shoulders. Unless he wants to continue making $1.1 million per season, he needs to put up a good season. More than that, he needs to prove he can be healthy, can be an asset to a playoff team, and isn’t so divisive to force a healthy scratch on a regular basis.

I get it, Alexander Semin has historically been considered a Sniper, and the Habs need scoring. But the truth of the matter is that he hasn’t scored more than 22 goals over his last 4 seasons. If we’re naming Snipers based on those stats, both Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk‘s seasons in 2014-15 were worthy of Sniper status. That shouldn’t be the case. Semin should now be considered as an average goal scorer and average player overall who can surprise other teams on occasion. To expect any more may be unrealistic.

Reasonable expectations from Alexander Semin in 2015-16:

  • 70 GP, 22 G, 25 A, 47 Points, 7 PP G

In essence, he provides similar stats than we can expect from David Desharnais.

If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to clap and cheer for him. But to expect anything more than that from an aging and recently injury plagued player is not smart if you’re trying to win a Stanley Cup. It’s trying to get the cheap and easy fix when the real solution is somewhere else.

OTHER OPTIONS

There’s no doubt that Marc Bergevin is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle here, but we also know he’s still on the lookout for opportunities. When teams set their rosters, begin falling out of the playoff race, and decide to get younger, he’ll be presented with many options that may be better fits than Alexander Semin.

The last part only increases the pressure Alexander Semin is under. Not only does he need to prove he can find his scoring touch in Montreal, but he has to do so on a pretty tight timeline. His length of time in Montreal may be based on how well he performs before Christmas. If he isn’t doing well enough, a move will be made with minimal cost to pay out to Semin.

Most, if not all, of the pressure is on Alexander Semin at this point. He’s a “Sniper” under pressure, one that has a short leash and timeline to prove he still belongs in the NHL and with the Stanley Cup hunting Montreal Canadiens. Do I think he has the skill to be more than he has been over the last 4 years? Definitely. If he uses as much passion and skill for scoring as he showed in the top 10 goals of his career (linked above) there’s no doubt in my mind he can approach his career year stats. But I wouldn’t put any money on it, and put the chance of that happening at slim to nil.

With this in mind, how many goals do you expect Semin to put up in Montreal?

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