When the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken entered the NHL, they brought the league to 32 total teams and, as a result, into a divisional stability of sorts. Vegas' entry brought the Pacific Division's total to eight teams, while Seattle's arrival allowed the Arizona Coyotes, now known as the Utah Mammoth, to shift away from their previous Pacific Division setup and into the Central.
But just five years post-Seattle, the NHL is willing to throw away its new world order and push the total team count to 33.
Back in June, the NHL initiated an evaluation of the possibility of a second NHL team in Texas, with the franchise taking roots in either Austin or Houston and being owned by Dan Friedkin and the Friedkin Group.
Since then, Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly cited Houston as a priority destination for the NHL and offered the 2029-30 season as a target launch for the new franchise.
If Daly's prediction turns out to be true and we have just under three years to prepare for an expansion draft, the conversation should become a little more worthy of having at this moment.
While teams like the Vancouver Canucks and Pittsburgh Penguins, both of whom are arguably straddling new eras in their own respects, might be reluctant to think about this question right now, others like the Montreal Canadiens, which have a concrete vision for the next handful of seasons will want to think about who they'd want to protect in an expansion draft.
Such an idea is starting to gain momentum in the hockey podcasting circle
On a recent episode of The Sick Podcast with Tony Marinaro, the idea of expansion was discussed as a follow-up to Daly's clarifications on the subject. At the same time, Marinaro and Pierre McGuire discussed the implications for the Habs and what their status could be.
The picture offered was more than positive, with McGuire stating that Montreal's player situation would soften the blow of any move made during the expansion draft. When taking a look at the Habs' roster, their argument is correct.
For a Habs organization that is well past the rebuilding days and only entering their contention window, they have the wherewithal to protect the players they need to protect without even getting into their non-roster/AHL depth.
Let's think about it. During the Seattle expansion draft, teams had the option of protecting a combination of seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goaltender. Alternatively, teams could protect eight skaters (regardless of position) and one goaltender. Alongside that general condition, among others, any player with an unwaived no move clause or those who had played less than two seasons were exempt from the selection. From there, the Kraken were allowed to pick one non-protected player from each team minus Vegas.
If the rules from the Seattle draft carry over, the Habs will have a very clear strategy to maintain their Cup-contending roster.
Barring any significant change for franchise centrepieces Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, they will be protected by the Habs. The same should go for Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov, bringing the total number of forwards protected to four.
From there, contract length and other factors do complicate which three forwards the Habs could protect alongside the aforementioned four. That said, Alex Newhook and Oliver Kapanen should find themselves among the likeliest to be protected should they remain in Montreal in the lead-up to an expansion draft in 2029. While the likes of Jake Evans could be added to that list, Evans' contract would expire right before an inaugural season, and he would also be 33 years old at the start of the 2029-30 campaign.
The Habs could also strategically guide Michael Hage and other prospects towards the NHL in consideration of a potential expansion draft in 2029. This could work, especially given that Hage will return to the NCAA next season and that the Habs don't have to sign Hage to an entry-level contract until 2028. Waiting until the end of the 2026-27 campaign to sign such prospects to their entry-level deals would allow the Habs to protect their next generation and all but exempt them from the expansion draft.
Protecting the defensive side of the ice should also be a slam dunk for the Habs. Lane Hutson should almost certainly be one of the three defensemen protected in an expansion draft, though Dobson isn't that far behind. From there, both Kaiden Guhle and Mike Matheson have contracts that would run through an inaugural 2029-30 campaign, though Guhle's age makes him more of a lock for protection than Matheson. One could make a similar case for Struble should he navigate restricted free agency next summer.
The only major issue that should be of worry in this regard is the goaltending position, something that was hinted at during the podcast. As it stands, only Jakub Dobes would have a contract that runs through the 2029-30 campaign. That said, the Habs would be foolish to not offer Fowler a long-term extension.
The question of which goaltender to protect is a double-edged sword. Fowler's age is an advantage, but both goaltenders are starting-calibre. The fact that the Habs would only be sacrificing 12 of a maximum 23 players to an expansion draft, yielding an 8.3% chance (at worst) that Fowler or Dobes is picked, should quell any worries from Habs fans.
When considering the above in itself, one can come up with the following projected list of protected players in the event of an expansion draft.
Nick Suzuki
Cole Caufield
Juraj Slafkovsky
Ivan Demidov
Alex Newhook
Oliver Kapanen
Lane Hutson
Noah Dobson
Kaiden Guhle
Jakub Dobes
Even with some talented names being left off the list, that's still a strong protected lineup, perhaps one of the strongest in the league. Continued regular season/postseason success for the aforementioned players should reinforce their case ahead of an expansion draft, though the same factor could also apply to those on expiring contracts, older veterans looking to continue having an impact on a Cup contender, or key pieces that end up on the outside looking in.
With three years to go until a potential expansion draft, it's safe to say that the Habs have a clear path to work with.
Add us as a preferred source on Google