It’s no secret that the future between the pipes for the Montreal Canadiens comes down to two names: Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler.
One has already fully established himself as the starting netminder, while the other has shown flashes. Fowler is down in Laval to start the season, leaving Sam Montembeault to back up Dobes.
Last year was brutal at times for Montembeault. Following a career year after receiving Vezina votes, he posted an .873 save percentage. He played in just three games after Jan. 24, when Fowler came up for his first taste of the big time.
A positive sign is that he had a strong preseason. Two of those nights included stopping every shot on net and saving 34 of 35 shots across the full preseason.
Expectations should be reasonable. Precedent indicates that he likely won’t be as bad this year. He’ll be good for some strong nights in between the ones that will be deemed serviceable.
This matters for more than just the success of the team’s future. It’ll be necessary to see what’s in store for the goalie’s future.
When Fowler is ready, it may not make as much sense to have Montembeault collecting dust in Laval, if the Canadiens are even lucky enough to get him through waivers without being claimed. The Habs would be wise to evaluate his performance this season and aim to get something in return for a trade.
What precedent indicates for a trade
While every move comes with its own unique situation, the Canadiens have the benefit of having traded some goalies in recent seasons to get an idea.
Jake Allen and Cayden Primeau had overlapped with Montembeault as potential options and have both since been shipped off. Each move came at different times and involved goalies with different track records.
Allen was traded to the New Jersey Devils at the 2023-24 trade deadline for a 2025 conditional third-round pick. Primeau was dealt after the 2024-25 season as a restricted free agent for a 2026 seventh-round pick.
As you can gather, regardless of the situation, a trade for a backup goalie won't bring in much of a haul. The quality and experience of the backup can still determine what they get.
So what would make sense for a Montembeault trade?
The boring short answer would be somewhere in the middle, but it’s also more complicated than that. Montembeault is younger than Allen, but he still comes with more experience and a stronger track record than Primeau.
If Montembeault brings a better season to the table, something similar to the median for his career, it’s realistic to say the return would be closer to what the Habs got for Allen than they did for Primeau.
A strong start to the season could mean a team overpays for a hot hand. Yes, I just concluded that the return for a backup goalie won’t be much, but the NHL trade deadline can be notorious for overpays, which could prove to be to the Canadiens' benefit if Montembeault gives the right performance.
On the flip side, if he looks more like he did last year, the Habs may settle for putting him on waivers and seeing what happens. He may not be tradable at all in this scenario.
They could still trade, and getting something out for him would be better than nothing. But they’d be taking a late-round pick and calling it a day. That would be the best-case scenario if that's the turn his season takes. At that point, the expectation is that he heads to Laval, and that's it.
A positive sign is that he had the aforementioned strong preseason. Before the regular season even started, he began making up some value. It's better than the alternative.
All right. On that note, time to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of value for now and see where the market levels out.
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