The Montreal Canadiens have a long road ahead of them over the final 17 games to sneak into a wild-card spot and make the postseason for the first time since the 2020-21 season. The Ottawa Senators are in the first wild-card position with 73 points, while the Columbus Blue Jackets hold the second spot with 70 points. The Habs sit behind the Blue Jackets with 69 points, but they have an extra game played than Ottawa and Columbus.
The issue for the Canadiens are the teams that sit behind them. The New York Rangers, Detroit Red Wings, and Boston Bruins are right behind the Canadiens in a tie with 68 points. If you assume the Senators aren't going to relinquish the first wild-card, that means the Canadiens must beat four other teams to claim that other spot.
The Washington Capitals beat out the Red Wings for the second wild-card spot last season with 91 points. The second wild-card spot has been around that number for the past two seasons, which means the Canadiens would have to earn 22 points over their final 17 games. A record of 11-6 would do that, but that's also assuming every team around them finishes with a worse record.
It'd be easy to see the Rangers rally and finish with a better record than that over their last 17. The Blue Jackets have a one-point lead and one extra game to play, which means they could finish the year with a 10-7-1 record and reach that 91-point threshold. The Bruins won two consecutive games after the trade deadline, but they aren't set up with a roster that can go 11-5 over their final 16.
The most significant roadblocks standing in the Canadiens' way are the Blue Jackets and Rangers. It'd be music to the ears of the Canadiens' fans if the Senators bottom out over the next six weeks and relinquish that spot, but it's not something the Canadiens can count on. If Montreal wants to pay Kent Hughes back for his trust in the team at the trade deadline and make the postseason, they'll need to return to their form from November to January.
The Canadiens have six games against non-playoff teams over their last 17. Four are against the group of teams battling for the wild-card spots, and the other seven are against some of the league's top teams. In order to get to 11 wins they must sweep the non-playoff teams, win the majority of the four against the contending teams, and then pull off a couple of upsets against the league's best, which includes three against the Florida Panthers. It'll be a tall task, but nothing is impossible.