The Montreal Canadiens saw their eight-game win streak come to an end on Sunday night in a 3-0 loss to the New Jersey Devils. However, there was plenty to celebrate as the Canadiens officially clinched a playoff spot earlier in the day after the Detroit Red Wings lost to the New York Rangers.
Even though the Canadiens now know they are in the playoffs, there is plenty left to be decided in a very tight race for seeding. As of Monday morning, the Canadiens are in third place in the Atlantic Division but tied with the Buffalo Sabres in points at 100.
They are only two points back of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are leading the Atlantic Division, and four points back of the Carolina Hurricanes for the Eastern Conference.
That will be decided over the next five games for the Canadiens, who have a fairly favorable schedule with three more home games, including one against the Tampa Bay Lightning. When looking ahead to the playoffs, these are probably the most realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Best-case playoff scenario for the Montreal Canadiens
While winning the Eastern Conference would be ideal, it seems a four-point lead by the Hurricanes is going to be too much to overcome with only five games left. However, winning the Atlantic Division is certainly within reach and would be a huge advantage for the Canadiens.
If they were to win the Atlantic Division, they would guarantee home-ice advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs if they advance that far. On top of that, the Canadiens would guarantee they would avoid the Lightning and the Sabres in the first round.
By winning the Atlantic Division, the Canadiens would almost certainly play the Boston Bruins in the first round. The Bruins are currently the first wild card and have a five-point lead over the second wild card team. While they could still catch whoever is third in the Atlantic Division, they have lost three straight, which makes that scenario less likely.
The Canadiens split the four games they played against Boston this season, including a 3-2 overtime win in their last meeting. It would be a tough series, but they probably match up better than the Lightning and Sabres.
Worst-case playoff scenario for the Montreal Canadiens
As mentioned previously, it is hard to imagine that the Boston Bruins are going to catch any of the Top 3 teams in the Atlantic Division, so the worst-case scenario would be the Canadiens finishing third behind the Lightning and the Sabres.
By finishing third, the Canadiens would not only not have home-ice advantage in the first two series but would have to almost certainly go through both the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Buffalo Sabres, if they get past the first round. In this scenario, the Canadiens would probably rather have the Sabres as their first-round opponent instead of the Lightning.
The Canadiens have had success against both teams this season, and still have one more game against Tampa Bay, but the Lightning have more playoff experience than Buffalo. The Lightning have lost in the first round each of the past three seasons but reached the Stanley Cup Final in each of the three seasons prior to that.
For the Canadiens, the focus for them should be simple in that they just need to win their games, especially the upcoming game against the Lightning. If they can do that, it puts them in a great position to win the Atlantic Division or, at worst, finish second. However, if they drop a few of the final five games, they could be facing a scenario where they are on the road to open the playoffs.