It is about to become a busy time for the Montreal Canadiens and the rest of the NHL with the NHL Draft this weekend, followed by the start of free agency less than a week later. At this point, the Canadiens are trying to gather as much information as possible to build out a plan for the next few weeks.
One of the decisions they will have to make sooner rather than later is which free agents they might want to bring back. They have one unrestricted free agent in Patrik Laine, but it is essentially a foregone conclusion that he will be playing hockey somewhere else next season.
There are a few more questions about the restricted free agents, though, as the Canadiens have four players that fall into that category. The first decision is whether or not to extend a qualifying offer that at least retains the restricted free agent designation.
After that, it is working out a new contract or potentially trading the player. Below are predictions on which players will be back, utilizing projected contracts from AFP Analytics and the qualifying offers needed to retain them from Puckpedia.
Kirby Dach
Qualifying Offer: $4 million
Projected Contract: 2 years, $2.226 million AAV
Kirby Dach is arguably the toughest decision the Montreal Canadiens have to make because he has the highest qualifying offer of any of the players. It is also tough to make the argument that he is worth a one-year deal with a cap hit of $4 million.
That is why the contract from AFP Analytics comes in much lower than the qualifying offer. For the Canadiens, they could try to work out a contract like that before free agency but they have to extend the qualifying offer by June 29th.
Dach is only 25 years old but has struggled to stay healthy, playing no more than 58 games in the past four seasons and only 37 this past year. He was also very inconsistent in the playoffs, with some disastrous mistakes, but also finished with four goals.
Prediction: Canadiens trade Kirby Dach before having to extend qualifying offer
Joe Veleno
Qualifying Offer: $945,000
Projected Contract: 1 year, $945,000
The Montreal Canadiens signed him last summer to a one-year deal, and he was a solid depth forward who would end up playing 61 regular season games and in nine playoff games this past season. At this contract, it feels like a no-brainer for the Canadiens to bring him back.
Veleno is a great fit on their fourth line as he wins faceoffs at a high rate and does a good job forechecking. He also brings some physicality to this group after finishing third in hits with 166.
Prediction: Canadiens bring back Veleno on a one-year deal
Arber Xhekaj
Qualifying Offer: $1.3 million
Projected Contract: 1 year, $1.482 million
Arber Xhekaj falls into the same category as Veleno, as he is a great depth player for their defense and brings some physicality to this group. He saw his ice time decrease from the prior season down to only 11:25, but he finished first on the team in hits with 178.
The Canadiens have some decisions on their blueline, especially with players like David Reinbacher and Adam Engstrom expected to compete for roster spots in training camp. The projected contract isn't unreasonable, but Montreal is also probably listening to offers for Xhekaj.
Prediction: Canadiens bring back Xhekaj on a one-year deal
Zachary Bolduc
Qualifying Offer: $874,125
Projected Contract (Long-Term): 7 years, $6.06 million AAV
Projected Contract (Short-Term): 2 years, $3.647 million AAV
Among the restricted free agent decisions when it comes to the qualifying offer, this is a no-brainer, and the Canadiens absolutely will make the offer on Zachary Bolduc. Where the question starts to come into play is what length contract they offer, or whether they explore a trade.
The Canadiens traded for Bolduc last offseason with the St. Louis Blues and had a disappointing regular season as he went from 19 goals to only 12 and finished with a +/- of -6 in 78 games. However, the playoffs were a different story, and he is the type of player who is built for playoff hockey. In 19 games, he had three goals and four assists and was second on the team in hits with 47.
At only 22 years old, he still has a lot of hockey ahead of him, and the Canadiens do run a risk of only signing him to a short-term deal. However, with only around $11 million in cap space, they can't commit half of that to Bolduc, so a short-term deal is more likely. If he makes a jump next season, they can use next summer to negotiate a long-term contract then.
Prediction: Canadiens sign Zachary Bolduc to a two or three year contract
Add us as a preferred source on Google