The Montreal Canadiens are in a tough spot with their blueline, with the news that Noah Dobson will be out at least two weeks with an upper-body injury and will be re-evaluated at that time. The two-week timeline means that Dobson probably misses at least the first two or three games, and that is assuming he can return right away after those two weeks.
On Sunday, the Canadiens called up David Reinbacher from Laval, and the former first-round pick likely makes his NHL debut either Sunday against the New York Islanders or Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers. Martin St. Louis has plenty of questions before the NHL playoffs kick off next weekend and needs to get as much information on his options in a short period of time.
When looking ahead to the playoffs, the Canadiens could go in several directions with the players on the roster. At this point, with the information available, these are the three best pairs Montreal could put out on the ice for Game 1.
*All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise noted
Kayden Struble - Lane Hutson
After Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson, the pair of Kayden Struble and Lane Hutson have the most ice time of any defensive pair for the Montreal Canadiens at just over 104 minutes over the past 10 games. This pair has been really effective with six goals for and only two goals against in 5v5 situations and a Corsi For % of 56.67%.
When a team loses a key piece to their blueline, like Noah Dobson is, the focus should be to minimize as much change as possible while putting out the best pairs they can. The Canadiens certainly could look to break this group up and go with Mike Matheson and Lane Hutson as their top pair. That would be their strongest duo, but it really impacts the second and third pair, which wouldn't benefit them in the long run.
In the playoffs, particularly in the third period, the Canadiens could go with Hutson and Matheson in key moments but for most of the game, this should be their top pair.
Kaiden Guhle - Arber Xhekaj
If the goal is to limit the amount of changes made to the blueline, then Kaiden Guhle should play next to Arber Xhekaj as the Canadiens third pair. Guhle has missed the past few games with an undisclosed injury but has returned to practice recently.
If Guhle is back on the ice against the Islanders on Sunday, this will be a great indication of his availability for the playoffs. Assuming he is available, then he and Xhekaj are a playoff perfect pair as Xhekaj can bring some of the physicality that is needed for the playoffs.
These two have had limited ice time, with only around 28 minutes over the past nine games, but have been on the ice for 12 scoring chances compared to allowing only nine to their opponents.
Mike Matheson - Alexandre Carrier
The next pair in reality is going to be the Canadiens' second pair, but it also has the most questions. In theory, it should be Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier, assuming Carrier is ready for the start of the playoffs. He suffered an injury at the end of March and was expected to miss 2-4 weeks, which certainly puts his return for Game 1 as a possibility.
If Carrier is available, then he should be the one to replace Dobson next to Matheson. This season, these two have had over 174 minutes of ice time and an xGF% of 49.21. He could also be a great option in replacing one of the things Dobson did so well, which is getting into shooting lanes. Carrier is second on the team in blocked shots, behind only Dobson.
However, if Carrier is unable to return for the start of the playoffs from his injury, this is where it really becomes tough for Martin St. Louis. He will then need to look to rookies Adam Engstrom or David Reinbacher, with Engstrom playing in only 12 career NHL games and Reinbacher likely to make his NHL debut either Sunday or Tuesday.
Even in that scenario, Matheson is probably still the best player to start games with either of these players. He is the veteran of this blueline, and pairing him with an inexperienced player could help, particularly in the high-pressure situations of the playoffs.
The Montreal Canadiens find themselves in a tough situation with Noah Dobson expected to be out for an extended period of time. It is going to take some juggling, but moving forward with these pairs gives the coaching staff the best chance to minimize the absence of Dobson and help them in the playoffs.