Montreal Canadiens, the Russian Factor and Ivan Demidov
There has been a lot of talk in the past couple of years of the Russian factor in high profile prospects. But is there a real threat in picking a Russian player high in the draft, or is there not as much going on as others think? And what the future looks like for prospects like Matvei Michkov or Ivan Demidov.
There is a consensus number one draft pick in the NHL draft this year, and his name is Macklin Celebrini, born in Vancouver, and playing in Boston. But after Celebrini, the waters get a little muddy, and one name that keeps popping up is Ivan Demidov.
🚨April Top 32 Rankings 🚨
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Haven't published any personal rankings so far this season, so while I continue to refine my own Top 100 (which I'll post with long write-ups in June) here's my top 32 as it currently stands!#2024NHLDraft pic.twitter.com/LuNtpR2CI0
There are many scouts, mainly independent scouts, that have the Russian born, St. Petersburg based Demidov as high as second. But even big names, like Sportsnet's Sam Cosentino and Jason Bukala have Demidov as the second best player.
Demidov is an elite offensive talent. He started the season at the KHL level, but was sidelined with a knee injury in the fall and missed some time. Demidov has one more year left on his contract in Russia before he becomes eligible to come to North America. He’s a top line prospect who plays with pace and skill. His hockey sense is off the charts offensively, but he’s also the kind of player who extends plays along the boards and drives to the crease.
NHL Projection: Top Line Scoring Forward
However, there is some dissention among the scouting ranks. Bob McKenzie has Demidov way down at 7th, behind forwards Cole Eiserman and Cayden Lindstrom. And Corey Pronman has him down to 8th behind Beckett Sennecke and Berkly Catton.
Does this kind of sound familiar?
Last year, there was a clear number one pick, Canadian born Connor Beddard, but had no clear cut number 2, and there was a lot of talk about a very skilled, Russian born forward named Matvei Michkov.
Elite Prospects had Michkov ranked as their second best player, and similarily, many independent scouts also had Michkov that high. There were a lot of questions, and Michkov went much lower to the consensus, being taken by the Philadelphia Flyers at 7.
And the reason for that? The Russian Factor.
There used to be a lot of different big hockey leagues, and back in the 1970s, the NHL was threatened by the WHA, but today the closest competition that the NHL has is the Russian league, the KHL. And each league has carved out its own niche, and the direct competition is not very heated.
But a player can only play in one league at a time, and contracts are set in stone, and its not easy to dip out on them early. And with Russian players having been brought up in the Russian system, they frequently already have a contract, and that contract will go on even after they are drafted in the NHL.
In 2021, years before Michkov was drafted, he signed a 5-year deal with SKA St. Petersburg, a deal that would keep him in Russia until the end of the 2025-26 season. However, there are early reports that his contract is being terminated early, and he could come to Philadelphia as early as next year.
And there is presedence for it. The Washington Capital's prospect Ivan Miroshnichenko ended his contract one year early to make the jump. Right now, Demidov is signed with St. Petersburg until next season, and a scout at the New York Times believes that he doesn't want to stay in Russia and will come to North America very soon.
A History of Russians
Coming over to North America from Russia today is very different than it was a long time ago. While the political climate isn't exactly the best, it is still fairly easy to travel from one country to another, and with the internet, long range connectivity is as easy as pie.
When players like Petr Svoboda; Vaclav Nedomansky; Peter, Anton, and Marian Stastny; and the Russian Five (Fedorov, Konstantinov, Kozlov, Fetisov and Larionov) defected, there was a real possibility that they wouldn't see their families again. And many of them didn't speak a lick of English.
With the interconnectivity of the internet and the rise of the global English language, it isn't as much of a risk as it once was.
But lets look at the more recent history of Russians taken high in the draft:
Its too early to really assess the 2023 draft so we will skip that one.
The first Russian draft pick in 2022 was Pavel Mintyukov, but he had already come over to the OHL. We already talked about Ivan Miroshnichenko and the Washington Capitals, so that is a big point against the Russian Factor. The other Russian first rounder, Danila Yurov recently signed a one year extension in the KHL, but in an interview for the Athletic, has mentioned he intends to come the NHL, but doesn't feel ready yet.
2021 wasn't a strong year for Russian prospects, and just Fyodor Svechkov was taken in the first round, but last year, after playing in the KHL, he has made the jump and played in the AHL.
The best goalie prospect in 2020 was Russian Yaroslav Askarov, who has since come over and made his NHL debut for the Predators. Rodion Amirov had been in North America with the Maple Leafs for a spring, before sadly passing away due to a brain tumor. Other first round picks Yegor Mukhamadullin and Yegor Chinakhov have also made the jump overseas.
In 2019, the Vancouver Canucks selected Vasili Podkolzin, and he came to the NHL after just one year.
Vitali Kravtsov was drafted 9th overall by the Rangers, but has since bounced back and forth from the NHL to the KHL, but this was mainly due to his inability to secure a roster spot. He did show a want and ability to come to North America.
And so on and so forth. The fact is that you have to look long and hard to find a high level prospect from Russia that hasn't made the jump over to the NHL. The one's that haven't come over wasn't for lack of trying, but just didn't seem to have what it takes to play in the NHL.
And outside of the top one or two prospects in a given year, most prospects aren't expected to make the jump to the NHL that year. So realistically, the extra year or two in Russia won't make much of a difference to NHL teams.
The Montreal Canadiens didn't draft Matvei Michkov last year due to the Russian Factor, and there is a good chance that Ivan Demidov will drop to the Canadiens again at 5th overall. Will Kent Hughes and the Canadiens miss out on another high level Russian prospect? Especially with the news that Michkov could be coming over sooner than expected, I think it would be a big mistake.