Montreal Canadiens Drafting Philosophy: Best Fit vs. Best Player Available
It's that time of year again: draft season, and the Montreal Canadiens have another high draft pick in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft. And, of course, that means we finally have a concrete number to aim for and debate about until late June. Should the Habs shoot for the stars and nab the best player available, or look at holes in the prospect cupboard and find the player that fits in best?
The NHL draft lottery balls have spoken and the Montreal Canadiens will have the honor of selecting fifth overall for the second year in a row, and the 8th time ever. Last year, Kent Hughes selected the big, late rising defenseman from Austria David Reinbacher, who late this season made his AHL debut, and even scored a goal in his first game.
The Canadiens are a team on the rise after the near historical fall after their fantastic run to the Final in 2021. The management team have quickly stockpiled a very respectable prospect pool in a short amount of time, and everyone will be looking for the Habs to make a step in the upward direction this year. And while the 5th overall pick will likely not make an immediate impact at the NHL level, whoever Hughes picks will be a major piece for the team going forward.
So the question is, who will be the lucky player? Will the Canadiens take a swing on a talented Russian forward after missing out on Matvei Michkov last year? Will they take stock in the late riser and pedigree of Tij Iginla? Or will they ignore the latest reports and take a reach on Cayden Lindstrom? Or the Habs could look at one of the many stud defenders like Zeev Buium, Artyom Levshunov or Zayne Parekh?
It really depends on what philosophy the scouts and decision makers in the Montreal Canadiens have when it comes to drafting. Will they look beyond the position and just pick the best player available, or will the position win out, and possibly leave more quality on the table.
But first, we need to check the cupboards first.
Okay, so what are the strengths of the Montreal Canadiens?
The big thing that really sticks out is the defensive core. First of all, Lane Hutson and David Reinbacher are looking like future mainstays on the backend, with Logan Mailloux even getting a shot in the NHL at the end of the season. And that is just the youngest.
Kaiden Guhle is still very young at 22 years old, and is already a solid NHL defender, along with other 2002 born players with NHL experience Justin Barron and Jayden Struble. Arber Xhekaj is just a year older and has carved out a deep groove for himself on the bottom pair, and Adam Engstrom looks to make is North American debut next year.
Another strength of the Montreal Canadiens is their centre depth. Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook can play down the middle and are established NHL players, along with Jake Evans who is a great defensive bottom six anchor.
Owen Beck is quickly coming up the system and will be a solid addition to the bottom six in a few years, along with other prospects like Filip Mesar, Olivier Kapanen and Vinzenz Rohrer making strides and being listed as centres.
So the biggest hole Montreal has is scoring wingers. Behind Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, the winger situation isn't the best. Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Michael Pezzetta are fan favourites but aren't top tier wingers, and Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson aren't producing great numbers and aren't getting any younger.
The biggest names in the Canadiens' system on the wing are Joshua Roy and Sean Farrell, but there are still a lot of question marks on whether they can be quality top six options.
So the case for picking the best player available:
Pierre McGuire is back in the news again stating that the Habs will go "big game hunting". He's one of the most enigmatic figures in hockey with plenty of clips showing his weird side, like telling the late great Darren Dutchyshen that he is a reporter with a big stick while standing uncomfortably close to him.
Just for fun, this is what Pierre McGuire said after the Habs drafted Carey Price. #hindsight pic.twitter.com/sgIPXIJeYC
— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) June 27, 2015
But my favourite might be what Pierre McGuire said right after the Canadiens drafted Carey Price 5th overall in 2005. Forgetting the casual racism at the start, Montreal did have established goalies in Cristobal Huet and Jose Theodore, who had just won the Hart and Vezina in the 2001-02 season.
This was also the height of the Montreal Canadiens lack of offense. Outside of Alex Kovalev, a career year from Tomas Plekanec and Saku Koivu, no Canadien had even flirted with a point-per-game. The last time a Hab scored 40 goals in a season was Vincent Damphousse in 40 goals.
Obviously the biggest name in that draft was Sidney Crosby, but he was taken before Price, so there was no way Montreal was going to get him, but the other big names in the draft taken after Price were Anze Kopitar, Paul Stastny, Kris Letang and T.J. Oshie. All respectable to great players, but would you really take them over Price.
Carey Price was the face of the franchise for years, and the only name I can really think compares on that list and from that draft is Kopitar, or even Jonathan Quick, who L.A. took in the same draft. Wow, that is an insane draft for the Kings.
So if the Canadiens drafted for need, then they would have missed out on the face of the franchise.
But as we all know, it takes a team to win the Cup, and that is something that Carey Price sadly never accomplished and the Montreal Canadiens haven't done since 1993. And while that can't be put upon one thing, strength down the middle has been a big weakness, and wouldn't Kopitar have looked great in a Canadiens uniform?
Yes, Carey Price had many great seasons, but the offense continually let him and the team down, and they never reached the promise land. They came close in 2014, before Price was injured in a play involving Kris Kreider, and then making the Final in the pandemic shortened 2021 before being thoroughly outplayed by the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Alex Galchenyuk had the one 30 goal season, Max Domi had a near point-per-game year, but those were just flashes in the pan, and the solid production of Max Pacioretty for years just wasn't enough. Not to mention years of the best centre on the team being David Desharnais, or jamming the aforementioned Galchenyuk into a role that he wasn't suited for.
Or for examples outside the team, the San Jose Sharks had a fantastic forward core for years with Pavelski, Thornton, Couture and Marleau with Burns and Vlasic shoring up the back-end, but never got over the hump. Or the modern day San Jose Sharks, the Toronto Maple Leafs, always missing that one crucial piece, be it a goalie, or defense, or grit, depending on the year.
Looking back at Stanley Cup winning teams, they have depth and incredibly balanced teams. And unequivicoally, the best way to build a team is through the draft.
So what's the best way to go about this? Well, it is a little bit of both. Generally, scouts will have tiers of prospects. For example, Macklin Celebrini is by far the best prospect this year, so he is in a tier of his own. But below that, you might have Demidov, Lindstrom and Catton on the same tier and not really have one above the other. And then, whichever ones are available you choose from those.
That way it keeps you honest on the best player available. Like if your entire second tier of prospects have been picked but Zeev Buium, a defender is the last pick in that tier, you really have to consider him, because in your opinion, all other players are a step below them.
Besides, there are no sure things, and there are some high profile prospects that will not pan out. Everyone has question marks and no team has a 100% hit rate.
And excess is always a good thing to have. Leveraging a position of strength into trades for a position of weakness is always a good strategy. To get quality you have to give up quality, and NHL general managers are savvy, and difficult to pull the wool over their eyes. I guess we will have to see where Marc Bergevin goes and hope.