Five X-Factors For The 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens
Kirby Dach and Kaiden Guhle would be the two honourable mentions; as they are on the cusp of being as impactful as the five players mentioned. But leaving them off the list, speaks to the make up of the Habs roster.
Nick Suzuki
With his career-high 71 points and 32 points, Nick Suzuki's production hasn't been the best part of his season. His maturity and ability to adapt to the higher expectations and level of competition is the exact reason that he was named the captain of the Original Six Montreal Canadiens. He has taken everything in stride, and just when it seems he has reached his ceiling there is another gear that he finds.
This season, Suzuki has gotten all of the top matchups; as is expected for the number one centre. But he hasn't flinched or looked out of place, he has elevated his game to the level of a true number-one pivot. He has earned praise from Florida Panthers head coach Paul Maurice and Selke Trophy and Stanley Cup-winning centre Ryan O'Reilly for his brilliant 200-foot game.
Suzuki could have crumbled under the pressure, many talented players have excelled in other markets, but the pressure cooker of Montreal hockey ends up being too much. He also could focus on playing just a stout defensive game, which would be less responsibility and easier to focus on. But he has excelled in all three zones, all while mentoring his two younger linemates quite well.
This season has displayed exactly how good Suzuki can be; many questioned if he was able to score 70 points and he did. Others wondered if he is a good enough shooter to score 30 goals, he currently has 32 with a handful of games remaining. Any questions that have been asked, Suzuki has answered them on the ice, letting his play do the talking.
If the Canadiens want to be competitive next year, the first player that will take the brunt of that pressure will be Suzuki. He is no stranger to pressure, he relishes in it, as proven by his play in junior and then his transition to the NHL. During the Canadiens Stanley Cup run he also showed that he doesn't shy away when the level of competition rises.
Mike Matheson
Love him or hate him, Mike Matheson is a polarizing player for the Canadiens; he sometimes cheats defensively to create offence and it doesn't always work out. But the odds of a player making a mistake, who is on the ice for nearly 30 minutes each night are fairly good. However, without his services on the backend, the Canadiens would be without a true powerplay quarterback and a solid penalty killer.
I rank Matheson as the second X Factor for next year, simply because whether he stays or goes, he will be a big topic of chatter. I was one with the opinion that moving Matheson at the Trade Deadline, while his value was at its peak, made a lot of sense. The team is certainly doing well with him still in the fold, which was likely the opposite of what the case would have been had he been moved.
I know, as most of us do; that Lane Hutson isn't going to come into the NHL and play on the top pair right away, It would be ridiculous to expect him to, and the patience with his development would be all for naught if that was decided to be the course of action. Keeping Matheson ensures that the top powerplay stays relatively the same, on the blueline, anyway; but it also gives Hutson time to adjust on the second unit and learn from watching.
Matheson, if dealt, will certainly retrieve a good return, but if he remains, he will continue to be one of the Habs most important pieces. Without him in the lineup, there are an awful lot of minutes to fill and some inexperienced players who would have to do so. Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj could certainly benefit from an increase in playing time, but throwing them into big penalty-killing and power play roles doesn't ensure that the position is filled properly, not right away, anyway.
Juraj Slafkovsky
If somebody were to tell you in October 2023 that Juraj Slafkovsky would have 42 points and be on pace for nearly 20 goals, you would have laughed. But that is the case and he doesn't look the same player that skated in his rookie season last year. The confidence in his ability to protect the puck and create space, which he attacks with quick feet or a smart pass is impressive.
Slafkovsky was tested out on the first line at the start of the year, but it looked like he was thinking too much instead of playing. He was forcing passes and trying to do way too much, often leaving himself susceptible to large open-ice hits. The confidence that we are seeing now was nowhere to be found then, the X (formerly Twitter) was a cesspool littered with bust labels all over any talk of Slafkovsky.
But with hard work and Martin St. Louis's trust, Slafkovsky found his game and he did so on the top line. Playing with the Habs top players was exactly the break that he needed to show how important he is for the team's offensive attack. He has served as the retriever, challenging defenders with his footspeed and a great knowledge of how to use his physical tools to his advantage.
He is enjoying the game and realizing that his strength and skill combination are often too much to handle. When defenders figure that out, it's often too late; because Slafkovsky has improved his decision-making and the speed at which he moves the puck. Because of that he creates plays at a rapid pace and moves into a smart spot to help his linemates as an outlet or a shooting option.
Slafkovsky is an X Factor for the Canadiens' success now and going forward that won't change. He has plenty of time before he reaches his prime and it seems obvious that he is far from finished developing into the player that he will eventually become.
Cole Caufield
Cole Caufield is the lone player on the Canadiens with the potential to score 50 goals. At every level he has played, he has proven adept at making defenders look silly, before devastating goaltenders with his quick and accurate release. The way he can find prime ice in the attacking zone and strike in an instant is rare, very few players can do that.
This season has been somewhat of a surprise, Caufield has been healthy all year, but still, he remains on pace to narrowly miss out on matching his 26 goals from the 2022-23 campaign. He isn't playing poorly, nor is he reluctant to fire the puck, the bounces just haven't gone his way. On Tuesday night he scored his 21st goal of the season, started with a slick play by Slafkovsky.
He has focused largely on his play away from the puck and his ability to stop zone exits and create turnovers with a smart poke check is proof that he is buying in. Caufield has also shown a bit of grittiness, challenging defenders along the boards with a hit or pinning them and trying to force the puck out of the scrum. Caufield's playmaking has been impressive this season though, and Suzuki has benefitted from some very nice plays.
Even without Caufield scoring at the rate that many would expect him to, the top line has been effective nearly every night. And his compete level and drive to improve remain a constant in his game; a positive sign that he will find his old scoring ways. It isn't ideal that he hasn't scored like everyone would hope, but it is encouraging that his game away from the puck has improved and he is still effective on the ice in other facets of the game.
The Canadiens have found other ways to score, but Caufield getting back to his scoring ways next would be a huge plus for the team. For that reason, he is a definite X Factor for the 2024-25 season. Montreal needs goals and Caufield was drafted because he is one of the best at scoring.
Samuel Montembeault
Samuel Montembeault's numbers haven't been impressive and his statistics are more of the same. But to have better numbers behind the rebuilding Canadiens, he would need to put in Vezina Trophy performances every night and that isn't realistic. His 15-14-7 record also isn't indicative of how good he has been.
There have been games where the Canadiens as a cohesive unit have looked lackadaisical, but Montembeault willed the team to a win. And going forward it's unlikely that the keys to the crease don't go through him. If Cayden Primeau wishes to usurp Montembeault as the starter, he is going to need to bring his A-game.
It's a fair bet that Montembeault will continue to be the starter for next year unless Primeau unseats him from his role. A role that he has worked very hard to get and even harder to maintain. Montembeault has the respect of the coaching staff and the players, simply because he shows up consistently every night and his ability to shake off a goal or loss and shift his focus to the next challenge remains a constant.
Montembeault and Primeau will remain one and two for at least the next two seasons before Jakub Dobes challenges for a spot. If not him, then Jacob Fowler would be the most logical option, but that is looking into the crystal ball and trying to predict the future. For that reason, Montembeault is the fifth and final X Factor for the 2024-25 season.
Final Thoughts
There are plenty of other players who could join the Canadiens next year and make a big impact. From Lane Hutson to Joshua Roy, Logan Mailloux and perhaps whoever the Habs draft or trade for. But the five X Factors will have the largest roles, in carrying, supporting and mentoring this team to the next level.
With Martin St. Louis, Kent Hughes and Jeff Gorton building, teaching and enforcing the mentality and culture off the ice, the X Factors will be doing their earnest to solidify the practices on the ice.
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