Canadiens: 5 Things to Watch For in the Second Half of the Season

Injuries

It sucks always talking about injuries, but with the Canadiens, it’s just par for the course, unfortunately. But what makes this particularly intriguing right now relates to the Canadiens' current spot in the standings. Just beyond the midway point of the season, the Canadiens are still in the thick of the playoff race. But they still have a lot of work to do to make up some ground.

If they cannot, and things start to get out of hand, I would start to wonder how many players begin to miss time with injuries. If you remember, last year, after it was announced Cole Caufield would miss the remainder of the season with a. shoulder injury, the fact the Canadiens were already out of the playoff race factored into the decision to have surgery at that point.

Caufield said he could have played through it if the Canadiens were in the playoffs, but it wasn’t in the cards. I can’t help but wonder how many guys may be playing through injuries that could ultimately need surgery or more lengthy recovery times that may not be available to them at the current juncture.

Ideally, that isn’t the case, but with such a physical sport and the Canadiens current luck on the injury front, I’d wager that at least a couple guys are pushing through something. Perhaps the Canadiens stay in the hunt long enough that we won’t know for sure. Still, it’s something to follow.

Regulation Wins

I’ve harped on the Canadiens and their struggles with playing with a lead this season. As it stands right now, just half of Montreal’s wins have come in regulation. No team is more familiar with overtime than the Canadiens, and more often than not, they held leads in those games. It’s a sticking point of mine that I’d like to see them improve upon. Their 4-3 win over Colorado is a great start.

With still so much hockey left, we’re going to see if this is something the Canadiens can get better at over the course of the year. Playing with a lead in the NHL isn’t easy, and the Habs are a young, rebuilding squad, so you don’t want to harp on them too much. But you have to be able to close games out in the NHL if you want to be successful.

Come playoff time, there is no three-on-three overtime or shootouts. So, the Habs have to get comfortable playing at five-on-five, and they have to be able to protect a lead. I’m fairly confident they can figure it out, but it may take time. We’ll see if they can take steps in the right direction the rest of the year.

The Quest for 40 Goals and 82 Points

The last player to score 40 goals for the Canadiens was Vincent Damphousse back in 1993-94, which would make it 30 years since. The last player to score over 82 points (which would be a point-per-game average) was Alex Kovalev back in 2007-08. That’s a long time, and it’s a mark no other franchise can top, which is not a distinction I’d want to hold.

There was hope that the likes of Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki could change that with a good year. After all, Caufield had 26 goals in just 46 games last year; he seemed on pace to break that. But alas, as of right now, neither player look primed to reach 40 goals or 82 points. But there’s still time for that to potentially change.

Caufield is on pace for just 25 goals, a disappointing season, but a hot streak from him could quickly change that. He’s had a rough go of things this year, but he’s got goals in two straight ahead of their contest versus the Devils on Wednesday night. He may have an outside shot at 40 if he can keep the momentum going. We know Caufield has the ability to get hot and go on a tear, and it’d be nice to see at some point in the second half.

Unlike Caufield, Suzuki is having a season more aligned with what we know he is capable of. The Habs captain is on pace for a new career high in points with 71, which would be the highest by a Canadiens player since Max Domi back in 2018-19. Still, it would fall short of that 82 points mark that has been so elusive to a Canadiens player. But, like Caufield, a quick hot streak from Suzuki could make it a possibility.

It's certainly not a guarantee it’ll happen, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility just yet. But things need to get going quickly if they want to change that. We’ll just have to watch and see, but it’s certainly a storyline to follow. I, for one, would like to see at least one of these two dubious streaks come to an end.  

Goaltending

The Canadiens have had some of the league's best goaltending this season, despite running a three-man rotation. The Canadiens have a 5-on-5 GSAx of 16.98, which is very good, and Samuel Montembeault, in particular, has led the charge on that front. Without the goaltending, I don’t think the Canadiens would have a chance at making the playoffs this year.

Last season, the Canadiens also got good goaltending for most of the year, but it tailed off towards the end of the season. I think a lot of that had to do with the team in front of them at that point. I’m curious to see if the same is true this year, or if the Canadiens can get dependable goaltending all season long.

The Canadiens as a whole could do better, though, as I think a lot is being asked of these goalies on a night-in and night-out basis. The Canadiens currently give up 33.8 shots against per game, which is 29th in the NHL, and they give up, and they give up 2.88 5v5 xGA/60, which is 28th in the NHL. Yet somehow, at five-on-five, they only give up 2.26 GA/60, which is 8th in the NHL.

If the Canadiens do ultimately make a playoff push, and that’s still a big question mark on if they can, goaltending will be perhaps the biggest reason why they make it there. The offence has been hard to come by this season, but here we are, beyond the halfway point, with the Canadiens still in the hunt. A lot of that credit goes to the goaltenders and Montembeault in particular.

Trade Deadline

Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle in how the second half goes is how that affects the strategy heading into the trade deadline. The Canadiens play 20 games between now and the March 8th deadline, so still a lot to determine. A good stretch and the Canadiens might consider adding some players for a potential playoff run. A lousy stretch and… well.

We already know that the Canadiens have told Monahan he would be moved to a contender at the deadline if the Canadiens are not in the running. But we may see other players on the chopping block as well. Could we see a solution to the goalie rotation? Would the Canadiens consider moving David Savard? We may find out the answers to these questions and more very soon.

 The Canadiens, being in a rebuild, would more likely be willing to sell than spend a lot to add a player, but we won’t know for sure until we get closer. A struggling team, well out of the playoff race by then, would certainly make Kent Hughes and his team’s decision a hell of a lot easier. But even then, he’ll have to make tough decisions about who he wants to keep and who he is willing to depart with. We saw this two years ago when he traded Ben Chiarot, Tyler Toffoli and Artturi Lehkonen all around the 2022 deadline.

We may not see a deadline quite as busy as that one, but I suspect he may be more active than he was a year ago. If you remember, the only move he made was swapping Evgenii Dadonov for Denis Gurianov. Health will ultimately be imperative for that to be a reality, though, something that wasn’t the case last season.

Regardless of how the Canadiens perform, there will be plenty of things to keep an eye on as the season winds down. The rat race has only just begun.