3 way too early reasons to be optimistic about the Canadiens in 2024-25
The Montreal Canadiens didn’t have much going for them over the past three years, but 2024-25 will bring a few reasons for optimism.
The Montreal Canadiens and their fans may have struggled through another rough campaign in 2023-24, but as we dive into the 2024 offseason, let’s get bold and talk about why there should be a few reasons for fans to get optimistic about this team when October arrives.
Sure, the summer is a long one, and things can change. Players are traded, new free agents come to town, and there are always those one or two head-scratching transactions, but so far, Kent Hughes has proven himself as a capable general manager considering all the good he’s done so far.
If that wasn’t the case, Montreal wouldn’t be getting progressively better each season. So, if you’re a Habs fan or just someone who just recently decided to follow this team, why should you be optimistic about 2024-25 before the offseason officially begins?
There’s a good chance the Canadiens top scorers completely break out
By definition, Nick Suzuki has already broken out, but what I mean by this is he has yet to hit his full potential. Suzuki joined the 70-point club this season, and his 33 goals also put him in the 30-goal club. But at such a young age, he has room to parlay that into an 80-point, 40-goal season thanks to Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky on the rise.
What’s amazing about Caufield is that he still managed 28 goals while finding the net just 8.9 percent of the time. That’s just over half of the 16.5 shooting percentage he had in 2022-23 and 2.8 percent under his career average of 11.7 percent. If Caufield logs another 314 shots on goal and converts 11.7 percent of them in 2024-25, he’s scoring between 36 and 37 times.
Count Juraj Slafkovsky among the Habs biggest surprises this past season, and from here, the 20-year-old could start taking over games. Sure, Suzuki and Caufield are great, and they will continue to get better, but Slafkovsky may hold more upside than the others. His 20 goals and 50 points showed us he can make leaps in production, so what will next season hold?
The Canadiens believe in Martin St. Louis
In the NHL, it’s normal to get rid of head coaches if they don’t produce winning records quickly. And unfortunately for Martin St. Louis, it wasn’t happening when he first took over in 2021-22, or in 2022-23, or even last season. And he has just a 75-100-26 record to show for it.
But the Canadiens are keeping him around, and that should bring another ray of hope that this team will have stability heading into 2024-25. With such a poor record - even if the team isn’t built to win just yet, it would have been easy for management and ownership to roll with another name, but they were wise to keep everything as is.
Plus, St. Louis’ coaching style is a tremendous fit for both today’s era of hockey and the young team that is the Canadiens. If such a style continues to bode well with the players, there’s no reason to make changes despite the overall record of the coaches currently on the market.
This organization went in for a complete rebuild; they’re steadily building organizational depth; they have their coach, a trio of dynamic scorers and perhaps more, plus sound, young defensemen like Logan Mailloux, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Justin Barron, and David Reinbacher in the organization.
Hanging onto someone like St. Louis, whose system this team will continue to build chemistry in, could give the Habs even more of an advantage as they head into their third full season with the coach.
Goaltending could be stellar in 2024-25
If Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau were in Detroit and playing for the high-scoring Red Wings, that team would have been in the playoffs. No, Detroit isn’t that good defensively, but what I’m saying is that Montembeault and Primeau are a good, young, and underrated goaltending tandem that would have taken a team that was a little further along in their respective rebuild to the postseason.
Next season, there will be no Jake Allen, and Primeau will get those reps behind Montembeault, providing a sound one-two punch for a team that will be better defensively. For a team that allowed 33.4 shots on goal per game - the third-worst in the NHL last year - Montembeault and later Primeau held up well, with both goaltenders finishing with a save percentage of at least 0.903 and a GAA no worse than 3.14.
You couldn’t say the same, however, for Jake Allen, who logged a 3.65 GAA, a 0.429 quality starts percentage, and an 0.892 save percentage. Before his ultimate trade to the New Jersey Devils, Allen rarely looked great in the net, while Montembeault and Primeau played well despite the fact they collectively faced 31.8 shots on goal per game.
The Canadiens only need to improve defensively, even if by a slim margin, and you can expect Montembeault and Primeau to reap the benefits. Expect them to each hit at least the 0.908 mark next season and a GAA of 2.85 or better, and they will be a sound, albeit still underrated, tandem.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)