The Good, The Bad and the Laine
So we know that goal-scoring is one of the most difficult things to do in the NHL, with goalies in massive pads and great defenders, and the Montreal Canadiens continually struggle to score goals. But now you have a bonafide goal-scorer in Patrik Laine the likes of which this team has not seen in a long time.
Laine is signed through next season at a cap hit of $8.7 million, after which he will become an unrestricted free agent. So it's not like the Canadiens are under the clock to make a decision about re-signing Laine, but it something surely in the backs of most people's minds.
And you don't have to look to hard to find people that do not agree with extending Laine, and either letting him walk in free agency, or more likely trading him at the deadline next year for a massive haul that Laine would certainly demand.
But why would the team want to get rid of the greatest goal scorer this generation has ever seen in a Montreal Canadiens' uniform?
One argument is that Laine is a powerplay merchant, and this is somewhat true, at least for this season.
Of the 17 goals Laine has scored this season, 14 of them have come with the man up, which is quite the ratio. 3 even-strength goals is not great certainly, but looking a bit deeper into that can give us a few answers.
First of all, this is an anomaly for Laine, as he usually greatly outscores his output on the powerplay with his scoring at even strength. His second season in the league saw him score 15 powerplay goals and 15 even strength goals, but every other year his even strength goals are far more.
Also, we have to look at who Laine has been playing with. There has been no time where the Montreal Canadiens have had a set line combination, especially further down the line-up. Even the first line of Caufield-Suzuki-Slafkovsky, which has looked so dominant lately had its struggles early in the year.
And the second line has bounced all over the place. Laine is one of the only fixtures in that position. He had played a lot of Kirby Dach, a player that had his struggles throughout the year and was coming off of a year long leg injury, which greatly hampered his play.
But then who played with them? Sometimes it was Alex Newhook who, while having a huge coming-out in the latter third of this season after Dach's injury, had consistency and finishing issues. Sometimes it was Slafkovsky, who couldn't hold onto a top line gig early in the year. Josh Anderson had a few looks, and Owen Beck had a few looks while he has been swapped with Joshua Roy.
That is a lot of turn-over, and the lack of consistent line-mates makes chemistry difficult to find. But look at the powerplay. Besides switching out Mike Matheson for Lane Hutson, it's pretty much always been Laine-Suzuki-Caufield-Slafkovsky-Hutson.
And then there is the non-scoring issues. There aren't really many statistics to back this up, as defensive play doesn't really show up on stats sheets. Since leaving the Winnipeg Jets, Laine has not recorded a season with a positive plus/minus, with this year being no different, sitting at a -11 currently.
But everyone worth their salt knows plus/minus is not very good statistic. You can step on the ice a second before the goal goes in, and get docked, or make a fantastic defensive play, only to have the puck go in later, and it looks no different. So don't take much stock in plus/minus.
But make no mistake Laine is not a great defender. It takes an amazingly bad offensive play to allow Laine make a defensive play.
Oh hey, what's this?
I love this play. It's so bad. Blake Comeau, on a clear cut breakaway, decides the best thing to do is to pass the puck back to a trailing Nathan MacKinnon. Which, to be fair, MacKinnon is one of the best players of his generation, but come on man. Plus, there was a Winnipeg Jet between the two, one that would not have caught up with Comeau, but was able to break up that play. And that stick was in the hands of Patrik Laine.
However, that is probably the only defensive highlight of Laine's career. As a winger I don't think I can say he is exactly a liability in his own zone, he definitely isn't a strength.
Which is a shame, because he has potential, and occasionally flashes it. Namely, its the fact that Laine stands at 6'4" and weighs in at 208lbs. Those are some pretty big numbers, and on a rare occasion, Laine does throw the body and looks physically imposing while doing it.
But the question is, does Laine really have to? Laine is tied with Brendan Gallagher for third on the team in goals, but has played 30 less games than anyone else. If Laine put up these exact numbers last year, he would have finished 4th on the team, again playing 30-50 less games than those around him.
Its pretty clear that had Laine played the entire season, and kept up the pace he has had in these 39 games, he would be the team leader in goals. So the question is, how many goals does Laine have to score to make up for his lack of a defensive edge?
Did the Canadiens really allow 17 or more goals because Laine is on the team to counteract the goals he has directly scored? What about the fact that Montreal's powerplay jumped from 17.46% last year to 21.89% this year?
And of course it all depends on what the next contract would look like. Obviously, if Laine and his camp look for a huge contract with a very long term, and were unwilling to budge, it would be best to move on.
However, I don't think that would be the road that Laine will take. It has taken a long time for Laine to get comfortable with a team, and it seems like he has found that in Montreal. He might be able to be flexible on money and term to keep a good thing going.
If that is the case, there is no reason to not resign Laine. He is still just 26 years old, not far outside of the window that this team had, especially if Laine continues to score at the rate that he has been shown to be possible.
I think people are overthinking things a little too much with Laine. Sure, he doesn't play well defensively, but he outweighs that with his offensive prowess and goal-scoring. And I would love to see Laine in the Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge for longer than next year.