The Montreal Canadiens entered the 2024-25 season with plenty of optimism after upgrading their offensive attack. They felt like defense was an area of strength but were weary of their lack of forward depth. The offense hasn't been good through five games either, thanks to the spotty play of their top two lines. However, the defense's standard and advanced numbers make even the common fan cringe. It's good to have optimism about the defensive future on paper, but they'll have to show it on the ice at some point.
JFresh is an X account that uses advanced analytics to further break down the NHL viewing experience. He has built a nice platform and also writes for EP Rinkside. The issue with JFresh is that he will show fans things that you may not have known without the advanced numbers. Habs fans knew that the defense was bad, but they may not have known it was this abysmal.
JFresh measured 5v5 Expected Goals Against Per 60, which he prefaced as six of the seven Canadian teams being in the top ten. The Toronto Maple Leafs are third, which shows the effect that Craig Berube is having on the team early in the season. However, the Canadiens ranking on this list is terribly concerning. They have 4.42 xGA/60, which is one goal higher than the next closest team. The San Jose Sharks have one of the worst backend and goaltending combos in a long time, and for the Canadiens to be this much worse than them is simply terrible.
I also caught this on the TSN broadcast, which fans began sharing on X. TSN's graphic shared the expected goals against stat, but they added that the Canadiens are also last in shot attempts against, shots on goal, and high-danger chances against. Advanced analytics are one thing, as some refuse to believe them and would rather judge a game by what their eyes are seeing. This is why TSN's graphic is even more concerning, as it shows how many concrete stats the Canadiens are last in as well.
The Canadiens still have a young defense core, so growing pains aren't that surprising. The problem is their youngest defenseman, Lane Hutson, is the team's best at both ends of the ice. The Canadiens need more from Arber Xhekaj, Justin Barron, and Mike Matheson. Three of those players were question marks on the future blue line anyway, so their struggles could show that they are the bubble players until players like David Reinbacher, Adam Engstrom, and Logan Mailloux make the jump.