Recently my colleague and co-expert here at A Winning Habit wrote about why the Montreal Canadiens should consider Roger McQueen in their 2025 Draft plans.
He argued why drafting McQueen could be a good option to gamble on at the 2025 NHL Draft since they have had a pretty successful rebuild to this point. While I agree, and I love the package that McQueen brings to the ice. I think that taking such a risk when the Habs are trying to take that next step is one that needs to be overanalyzed by Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes.
Montreal has drafted five players in the first round of the past three drafts under Gorton and Hughes. Juraj Slafkovsky is still trying to figure it out, and many believe that he wouldn't go first overall in a redraft. Fellow 2022 first-round selection Filip Mesar also hasn't developed how anybody thought he might.
Onto the 2024 draft, and many believe that the Canadiens gambled on David Reinbacher, with guys like Matvei Michkov (7 overall pick by Philadelphia) and Ryan Leonard (9 overall pick by Washington) available for the club. It's too early to write Reinbacher off, and I don't like doing that to begin with, but the injury has limited him. I think that he will develop into a great player for the Habs, but I'd argue it was a gamble.
Reinbacher's profile is hard to pass up, but passing on the forward options to draft a need is tough. I believe in this management group, and their ability to fill any glaring holes on the roster. They did a tremendous job on the draft floor at the 2024 NHL Draft - adding two very promising forward prospects.
Ivan Demidov at five, and Michael Hage at 21 have the potential to be the two best forwards of the entire rebuild. Montreal's scouting staff has kept tabs on many different things, balancing many players and even draft years. They passed on Michkov for Reinbacher, because they had more interest in Demidov.
I don't love the idea of not grabbing one of the high-potential forwards in 2023, but they loaded up on forwards in '22, and skipped it in '23, because of the forwards they wanted in '24. We will see if it pays off, but I can't see a scenario where Reinbacher isn't compared to the elite forward options that were on the board.
The 2025 draft, I think has the potential to be viewed as the final draft before the Habs truly become a playoff threat. Right now, the Canadiens have two picks in the first round, their own, and the one the club acquired in the trade that brought Sean Monahan over from Calgary. I think if the Canadiens are going to consider McQueen, it would be outside of the top 15.
Depending on where the Habs and Flames end up in the draft pecking, it will be determined whether they need to acquire another pick or take a chance on McQueen. I believe that the guy has all the tools, the physical presence and strong skating to be a top-six centre. But with that mentality, I would have drafted Cayden Lindstrom last year, sweeping the injury under the rug, and drafting for need.
Montreal has the pending unrestricted free agents to work a few deals and bring in an additional first-round selection. David Savard, Christian Dvorak and Jake Evans are all up for a new contract on July 1, and Hughes would be wise to move them now. Then he would squash any chance of letting these guys walk for nothing in the summer.
It's a business, and thorough research is necessary
It's a business, and that is why the Canadiens need to do their due diligence in assessing McQueen and testing the waters for their pending UFA's. In the case of McQueen, if he is on their list, then consulting with his physicians and being assessed by the Canadiens staff would be wise. You can't take a risk like that, without overturning every stone and learning about the player - injury history and recovery time, especially.
Back to the Lindstrom - McQueen injury stuff for a second, though. Lindstrom was limited to 32 games in his draft year, leaving plenty of precious development time to wait. The injuries are different, and so are the players, but McQueen is projected, by Elite Prospects to play just 27 games before the end of the season.
Even with a deep playoff run by the Brandon Wheat Kings in the Western Hockey League postseason, the big centre will be limited. Coming back from an injury as well, is perhaps just as hard getting back on the ice, as the rehab that leads up to it. McQueen, upon his return, will not be at his best, and I think that scouting and predicting potential is a difficult task, and even unfair to the player when he isn't at his best.
McQueen may very well make me look and sound silly, but player development is often anything but linear. Throw in the missed games, and some games to get back to speed, and then you can truly scout the player. I think the fact that next year is going to be the true test, is a big reason why drafting him after pick 15 would be wisest.
Montreal already has Patrik Laine and Kirby Dach, who fit a similar size profile as McQueen. I think that if McQueen could prove that he isn't going to be a player in the same mould as Dach, that would be great. I love Dach and hope that he becomes a stud for the Habs, but I want something different from McQueen, otherwise, why draft him?
If it's Macklin Celebrini or Connor Bedard there is no debate, you draft the guy, and figure out everything after. But McQueen is more of a project, given his size, injury and the fact that he is developing at one of the sport's difficult positions - centre. Montreal could use a big centre with top-six potential, but it's not easy to be a top-six centre. There are only 32 across the NHL for a reason, it's a difficult role and requires lots of fine details.
I like McQueen, but I would proceed with caution.