Lane Hutson Analysis: Over-Hyped Head Faker or the Next Big Thing?
It has been a long time since the Montreal Canadiens have had a prospect with this much hype. With the hype comes calls of over-hyped from everywhere. Is he truly over-hyped, or the real deal?
In the 2022 NHL draft, the Montreal Canadiens selected 11 times, twice in the first round. The first overall pick was Juraj Slafkovsky, the second first round pick was Filip Mesar. Then the Canadiens had their own second round pick, which they used to pick...Owen Beck. It was their second second round pick that they got from Edmonton for Brett Kulak that they selected Lane Hutson.
Of all those four players, each of them have had their own levels of success and hype, but none have quite reached the level of the diminutive defender Lane Hutson. He was small, listed at 5'8 at time of drafting, there were legitimate questions about his ability to hold up to NHL play. Still, many scouts took a chance and ranked him high.
Having been very optimistic about Lane Hutson's NHL projection in his draft year, even I didn't expect him to round out his game this significantly in just two seasons.
After a couple years in college with the Boston University, and a few more inches (now being listed at 5'10) he has bust onto the scene this year and has even garnered a fair amount of Calder Trophy buzz as the league's best rookie.
However, with the praise comes equal parts criticism. Such high praise undoubtedly comes with higher scrutiny and a lot more criticism. Just a quick search of his name on Twitter shows a lot of negative comments.
Obviously Hutson is a high end player, but are Canadiens fans too hasty in naming him the next big thing in the league and Calder favourite, or do some of the nay-sayers have a point.
Okay, so there are a lot of different ways that data can be found, interpreted and displayed, and obviously this model doesn't really like Hutson's game and metrics so far, after his first three games this season.
In the advanced metrics, Hutson has not been great. He hasn't scored a goal, has scored 4 assists in 6 games and has been a negative +/- player. Looking at expected goals for and against, he is firmly in the negative in terms of goals against per 60 minutes, and goals against at 5-on-5.
He also is on ice for slightly more shots against (56.6% against), and all of these are negatives.
It is important to note that these are still better than expected, especially when it comes to his first year. No one expects Hutson to be a great defensive defender, and would basically outscore his deficiencies, which at this young of a season, he really has.
Even after his growth spurt, Lane Hutson is not a big player. Generously he is 5'10" 165 pounds, and even some other sites list him as less. But he seems like a strong, wiry 165 pounds, and has been able to hold his own against, bigger, stronger forwards.
Sure, it isn't exactly the prettiest, as seen above with Adrian Kempe, where Hutson loses his helmet, but it worked. There was no scoring chance there, and it is unfortunate that he lost his helmet and had to leave the ice immediately, but to be fair, Kings players had been ripping lids off, most obviously when they got a penalty for doing it against Brendan Gallagher.
And this isn't an isolated incident.
This is Lane Hutson's most difficult challenge, winning physical battles when speed is not involved.
This is a different sequence from the same game, in fact involving the same opposing forward in Adrian Kempe. While Hutson fell early in the clip, he was able to recover quickly, and kept up with Kempe physically and showed some bite and tenacity.
Hutson effortlessly shrugging off Brady Tkachuk and then dodging another check before setting up a goal rules so hard pic.twitter.com/IG4HP1Z6tP
In one of his first points, an assist on Alex Newhook's goal against the Ottawa Senators, he had the physically imposing Senator's captain Brady Tkachuk draped over his back. While the bigger player was leaning on him, Hutson was able to brush him off and continue the play and make a nice pass to Newhook who buried a shot.
A big part of Hutson's physical game-ish is his head-fakes which have been talked about a lot. And even possibly mocked in-game by Tkachuk.
Brady Tkachuk mocking Lane Hutson's head fakes tonight 😭
Honestly, I don't see the big deal. Especially in this clip, Hutson is behind the net, and has Tkachuk standing right in front of the net. He then was able to make a safe pass and break out the play. If it works it works.
He also has been dynamite on the breakout and has more time with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone than any other defender in the entire league. That has to say a lot about his head-fakes and skating prowess.
Over-Rated?
Pittsburgh Penguins v Montreal Canadiens / Minas Panagiotakis/GettyImages
Okay, so where exactly is the over-rating happening? It is clear to pretty much everyone that Hutson is already a very good player, but he isn't perfect.
Those advanced stats are not great, he hasn't been able to put the puck in the net, and while there are examples of him defending well, he still needs to work on his defending, and he definitely needs to put some more weight and muscle on to be an optimal defender.
The problem really seems to be the fans. Montreal Canadiens fans have not seen a calibre of player like this in a long, long time, and have been talking him up to the moon and back, and other fans and pundits online like to be contrarian and see the very real holes in his game and use that to over-compensate.
Montreal Canadiens have been talking up Hutson as a Calder lock, and I don't think I see it. It is more difficult for defenders to win the trophy, and this is a very strong Calder class. Michkov has had a stellar start to the season, as well has Seamus Casey, and Macklin Celebrini had a strong game before going down with injury, which hopefully he will recover soon.
There seems to be a bit of a disconnect in the way that Hutson is talked about and seen. Many Canadiens fans are overlooking his weaknesses, and many haters are ignoring his strengths. Canadiens fans are seeing the potential and growth, and where he will be in a few years, while others just see him as he is now.
Right now, Hutson is right in the middle of a lot of people's valuations. The positive thing is that he is at his worst right now, and will only get better as the year, and as his career goes on. He isn't as good as some people like to say, but he will be very soon.
