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Jacob Fowler stellar underlying stats prove he deserves Canadiens starts

Montreal netminder struggles again in Wednesday’s loss to Washington, further strengthening the case for Jacob Fowler to take over the crease.
ByJacob Tye
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Oct 14, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals defenseman Martin Fehérváry (42) shoots the puck on Montréal Canadiens goaltender Jakub Dobes (75) during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
Oct 14, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals defenseman Martin Fehérváry (42) shoots the puck on Montréal Canadiens goaltender Jakub Dobes (75) during the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

On Wednesday, the Montreal Canadiens played the second leg of a back-to-back, with goaltender Jakub Dobes returning to the crease after about a week off.

Over the last three games, youngster Jacob Fowler has taken over in the Montreal net and has done quite well. He has won two of his three starts, allowing just six goals for a 1.91 goals-against average and a .891 save percentage, including a shutout of the Detroit Red Wings this past Saturday.

It has been a far bumpier road for Dobes, who has started four of the Canadiens' seven games this season and has just one win to show for it. After winning the season opener against the Toronto Maple Leafs, he was looking for a major bounce-back start Wednesday.

Unfortunately, it didn't come as Dobes faced a revamped Washington Capitals team that is expected to be a major Eastern Conference contender, and the Capitals showed it early, matching Montreal's two first-period goals with two of their own.

Washington went on to put five goals past the Slovakian netminder in another tough outing, raising the question of whether the net is now Fowler's to lose. Dobes has now lost three straight and carries a 4.64 goals-against average and an .841 save percentage this season.

Advanced analytics make it clear who should be the Montreal Canadiens' starting goalie

Fowler, meanwhile, has been far better, and the underlying numbers show a stark difference. Through data points on NHL Edge and MoneyPuck, Dobes has allowed 18 goals over four starts with a minus-5.8 goals saved above expected, while Fowler has allowed six goals over three starts with a 1.8 goals saved above expected.

Fowler also owns a perfect 1.000 save percentage against mid-danger chances and a slightly above-average .906 mark in high-danger situations, while Dobes has been below average in save percentage across all danger levels.

The contrast is striking given how last season unfolded when Dobes broke out in a big way, with the 25-year-old posting a 29-10-4 record, a 2.78 goals-against average and a .901 save percentage in 43 starts.

He carried that play into the postseason, finishing 9-10 with a 2.66 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage as he helped the Canadiens reach the Eastern Conference Final. Montreal needed a netminder for a long playoff run, and Dobes delivered.

Fowler, a much younger 21 years old, made his first NHL starts last season, going 9-6-2 with a 2.43 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage in 17 games. He used the offseason to adjust to the pace of play, and he has looked comfortable so far this season.

With Montreal set to face the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday, Fowler could very well make his fourth start in the Canadiens' last five games. Another standout performance would go a long way toward giving Montreal a clear answer on who its go-to netminder should be moving forward.

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