On Tuesday, Montreal Canadiens rookie goaltender Jacob Fowler is expected to start his ninth game of the season against the slumping Winnipeg Jets.
The 21-year-old Florida native has posted some of the league's best numbers to start the year, with a 7-1-0 record, 1.84 goals-against average and .932 save percentage. His play has seen him take over the bulk of Montreal's starts and seemingly overtake Jakub Dobes for the starting job, making Fowler not just the Habs' leading goaltender but one of the league's best rookies.
While much of the hype has been directed at Toronto Maple Leafs winger and recent first overall pick Gavin McKenna, Fowler has taken some of the spotlight and now ranks second in Calder Trophy odds on most sportsbooks.
It isn't impossible for a netminder to win the award as the last goalie to do so was Steve Mason of the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2008-09. The former third-round pick won with a 33-20-7 record, 2.29 goals-against average and .916 save percentage, a season that also earned him the second-most Vezina Trophy votes before Boston's Tim Thomas won the award.
Based on the averages of the 16 goaltenders who have taken home the Calder, the benchmarks appear to be within range, though it will be challenging for Fowler to reach them. A rough baseline is 30 to 35 wins, a goals-against average around 2.30 and a save percentage north of .915, which would mean Fowler has to remain among the league's best goaltenders all season.
Last season, just eight goaltenders finished with 30 or more wins, and just seven goaltenders with 30 or more starts finished with a goals-against average of 2.50 or better, which is likely a more realistic target. Eight goaltenders finished with a save percentage of .910 or better, another reasonable mark. Fowler will likely need to be a Vezina contender, stay healthy and continue getting the bulk of Montreal's starts.
No shortage of contenders in Calder Trophy race
The competition around the league is also strong. McKenna has routinely played with Toronto's star players like Auston Matthews and John Tavares as his centers, which gives him a comfortable scoring floor, and he already has 11 points in 16 games.
Boston's James Hagens has been playing with a solid center in Elias Lindholm and has been on the Bruins' second power-play unit. His middle-six role on a red-hot Bruins team has helped him lead all rookies in scoring with 12 points in 16 games.
Other favorable cases include Detroit's Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, who has ten points in 15 games and is setting league marks with his physical play and hits, showing himself to be an elite power forward.
Chicago's Roman Kantserov has also heated up, with six goals, tying Hagens for the rookie lead in that category, plus two assists for eight points in 15 games. He has played with Connor Bedard for most of the season, which gives him a safe scoring floor as well. Several other marquee rookies, including Porter Martone, Anton Frondell, Cole Hutson, Ivar Stenberg and Victor Eklund, round out the pack.
It's a loaded field, but if Fowler continues to post solid numbers and stays in line with those benchmarks, he could bring Montreal its second Calder Trophy winner in three years, following Lane Hutson.
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