Habs’ best players are among the best in the league
The Canadiens’ core group is among the best in the league. According to my model, Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovsky, Demidov and Dobson accumulate a level of WAR comparable to the leading skaters on championship-contending teams. The WAR statistic attempts to estimate a player’s contribution in wins compared to a theoretical replacement-level player.
The Canadiens rank 6th in the NHL in estimated wins generated by their top six contributors. Three of the main Cup favourites rank ahead of Montreal: Tampa Bay, Colorado and Dallas, along with two teams that have struggled in net, Edmonton and Vegas.
This suggests that the hardest part is already done for the organization. Acquiring star players is probably the most difficult task for a general manager. Fans will remember Marc Bergevin repeatedly telling reporters that first-line centers are rarely available on the trade market. Ironically, he was the one who managed to acquire one.
It does not mean the Habs could not use one more star
The Canadiens currently have five players ranked in the NHL’s top 100 in WAR, again according to my model. This does not place Montreal among the top teams of the last three seasons in this category. For example, the 2025–2026 edition of the Avalanche has eight players in the top 100.
Of course, hockey is a team sport, and there is certainly a team effect at play here. The environment strongly influences results. Still, the past two editions of the Florida Panthers had 6 (2024-2025) and 7 (2023-2024) players ranked in the top 100. Montreal might be one top player away.
Montreal needs to get serious about its depth
If the team’s top players are producing at such a high level, what explains why the Canadiens are not considered one of the Cup favourites? The answer lies in their depth, which ranks among the weakest in the league, at least according to our WAR metric. Aside from Nashville, no current playoff team generates fewer estimated wins from players outside its top six.
More than 70% of Montreal’s estimated wins come from Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Slafkovsky, Demidov and Dobson.
Having star players is one of the main drivers of success in the NHL. The Canadiens’ roster construction is certainly not inherently flawed, especially considering the team-friendly contracts signed by their stars, which give management the flexibility to acquire quality players who may not necessarily carry a star label.
Is the team in better shape than it was at the start of the season?
It has often been said that the Canadiens have more depth than they did at the start of the season. In reality, Montreal has been accumulating players who perform roughly at replacement level. By definition, these players are available to every team at virtually no cost through their farm system or waivers.
Collecting replacement-level players does not create depth. What creates depth is having a second-line forward playing on your third line.
This type of roster construction partly explains the Panthers’ success in recent playoffs. The team had 16 skaters with at least 1.0 WAR, while Montreal currently has only seven.
The Canadiens’ lack of depth could cause problems for Martin St-Louis’ group in the playoffs. In 2016, Dom Luszczyszyn estimated that teams reaching the Stanley Cup Final generated 1.8 more WAR from their depth players than teams eliminated in the conference finals. It was one of the most predictive indicators of which teams would compete for the ultimate prize.