Joel Armia was in the Team Finland lineup for their tournament-opening clash against the United States. Thanks to their injury-decimated defense, Finland was a heavy underdog for the matchup, but they took an early 1-0 lead. However, despite keeping the game close and trailing just 2-1 after the second period, USA rallied with four goals in the third to walk away with a 6-1 victory. The final score didn't indicate Finland's first two periods, but the coaching staff felt a change had to happen.
Kaapo Kakko will draw in for Armia in Finland's lineup. Undoubtedly, it's a chance to add offense to a team starving for talent to equal their counterparts in this tournament. However, the USA game showed us that offensive showdowns aren't how Finland will win games.
We've seen it countless times in international hockey: Finland's best path to victory is grinding down their opponents and winning defensive hockey games. It's no different at this tournament, making this move perplexing.
Armia is one of Finland's best options if they will play a defensive style of hockey, second only to Aleksander Barkov. Kakko is a tremendous downgrade in that area, and the Finns will miss Armia's presence in the bottom-six and on the penalty kill. It's nice to get Kakko in for a game, but keeping Armia in the lineup in Montreal would've been a nice touch.
In a tournament like this, Finland doesn't have time to wait around to make a move. If they lose to Sweden, it's the end of their gold medal hopes, so you can see why they'd try to get Kakko in the lineup for this game instead of waiting for Boston.
The interesting part of all of this is that Armia's numbers aren't that much worse than Kakko's this season. Kakko has been much better since joining the Seattle Kraken from the New York Rangers, but he only has 31 points in 54 games this season. Armia isn't far behind him with 24 in 56, and playing a much more limited role than Kakko in Seattle.
Lack of penalties could be a factor
One thing that does make sense is that the referees haven't been calling as many penalties as you'd see in a typical IIHF game. The referees are from the NHL, which changes the game-calling standard. If Finland believes there won't be many special teams opportunities in this game, it significantly decreases Armia's effect on the game.
Armia also didn't help the penalty kill that much on Thursday night, as the Americans capitalized on two of their four attempts. It's an age-old story in best-on-best hockey: no matter how good the penalty-killers are, these powerplay units will score.
Will Finland's decision to sit Armia lead them to a victory? If Kakko scores two goals and they defeat Sweden 3-2, I'll say I'm wrong. However, in the pregame analysis, I'll say it could be a costly decision.