The Montreal Canadiens organization announced Wednesday morning that it had signed forward Alexandre Texier to a two-year contract extension. The deal carries a $2.5 million cap hit and covers one RFA season and one UFA season.
Texier has found a great deal of success since being paired with Suzuki and Caufield. His 10 points in 10 games since Christmas rank him tied for second among Canadiens scorers over that span. It is also worth noting that those points were recorded exclusively at even strength. Is this an unsustainable heater, or the beginning of a true breakout?
Reasons for caution
Since arriving in Montreal, Texier has collected a point on 84% of the goals his team scored at even strength while he was on the ice. That rate is comparable to the career averages of Connor McDavid and other superstars. Over the course of his career, however, Texier has hovered around 60% for that statistic, which is closer to league average for forwards. This inflates his current statistical output, but players tend to regress toward their historical norms on this metric.
For example, Juraj Slafkovsky collected points on just 25% of his team’s goals at 5-on-5 through the first 10 games of the season. His lack of production drew criticism from many commentators, despite the team performing well when he was on the ice. In much the same way that Slafkovsky’s breakout was predictable, a regression in Texier’s offensive production should be anticipated.
Another statistic that helps evaluate whether a player might be riding his luck is shooting percentage. Elite shooters can sustain rates above the league average, but before determining who is getting lucky and who is really an above-average finisher, a sufficient sample size is required. Over his career, Texier has posted a shooting percentage of 11.8%. At the moment, the French forward is converting on 18.5% of his even-strength shots. As a result, Texier has scored seven goals despite being credited with 3.9 expected goals by Natural Stat Trick.
The first line is rolling, but how much credit does Texier deserve?
Even if these last two elements of context encourage some caution going forward, there are still several positive signs that could justify the decision to offer Texier a contract extension. The line he forms with Caufield and Suzuki has excelled since his promotion. The Habs’ first unit with Texier on it has a 60% shot attempts share, 62% shots on goal share, and 64% expected goals share, according to Natural Stat Trick. Suzuki, Caufield and Texier also outscored their opponents 9–2 during their minutes together.
But how much of that success should actually be attributed to Texier’s arrival? After all, over his career, Texier has posted just a 48% shot attempt share (Corsi). According to Natural Stat Trick, he has recorded only one season with a positive expected goals differential (2019–20). His two most recent seasons were also difficult, with expected goal shares of 42.7% and 42.8%, again per Natural Stat Trick. The expected goals models align with the results. Aside from 2019–20 and the current season, Texier’s teams have never posted a positive goal share with him on the ice at even strength.
The impact of strong linemates
According to research by Garret Hohl, a player with an average Corsi% (synonymous with shot attempt share) between 45% and 50% would be expected to post shot attempt shares between 53% and 56% when paired with teammates who average 55% Corsi. When paired with Slafkovsky, Suzuki, and Caufield recorded a 57.5% shot attempt share. It would therefore be normal for an average or slightly below-average player to produce positive results when playing alongside skaters like Caufield and Suzuki.
So the question remains: did this ten-game stretch really turn Texier from a player who went unclaimed on waivers into someone deserving of a two-year contract above the NHL minimum salary?
You may have noticed that the numbers I mentioned earlier with Texier–Suzuki–Caufield on the ice are higher than the 57.5% shot attempt share posted by the top line with Juraj Slafkovsky. Indeed, the Canadiens’ first line appears to perform better with Texier than with the Slovak forward: 64% vs. 60% expected goals share, 81% vs. 61% goal share, and 63% vs. 59% shot share. So yes, in this small sample of roughly 100 minutes, Texier does seem to have demonstrated that he contributes to his linemates’ success. That is likely the strongest argument in favour of his signing, along with the fact that this is only a $2.5 million AAV contract that should not significantly handicap the team even if the bet does not pay off.
What role will Texier fit?
That said, are the Canadiens really planning to compete for Stanley Cups with Texier on their top line? One would imagine that management made this signing with the intention of solidifying its future bottom six. Yet the Blues chose to buy out Texier rather than continue using him in that role. Still, no team is immune to injuries, and the Canadiens will now have at their disposal a player they know can keep up with the team’s top forwards.
Ultimately, this is not the kind of decision that will significantly affect the Canadiens’ championship hopes, but good teams avoid handing out overly generous contracts to depth players. And if some of the statistics mentioned in this article sound familiar, it’s because those metrics were used as a warning last season before the Canadiens opted to offer a contract extension to Jake Evans…