In Thursday's electric overtime win against the San Jose Sharks, Lane Hutson became the first rookie to notch 40 assists in less than 60 games since Niklas Lidstrom did it during the 1991-92 campaign. Pretty good company for Hutson. Yet, Vegas is reflecting that despite Hutson's offensive onslaught from the blue line this year, he is not currently the favorite to win the Calder Trophy this year according to the sportsbooks.
Now for casual hockey fans and Canadiens fans alike, this may come as a shock. Hutson leads rookie scoring with 46 points (4 goals, 42 assists) in 60 games. Both Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov have 44 points. Celebrini has played 11 less games and Michkov has played 1 less than Hutson. Points are not everything, but Hutson has been an outlier quarterbacking the powerplay and logging around 22 minutes per game.
With Hutson leading rookie scoring as a defenseman, one would think he would at least be in the vicinity of being a betting favorite for Rookie of the Year. Nope. His college teammate Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks is valued at as high as -500 on some sportsbooks, seemingly being a lock for the Calder Trophy. Vice versa, Hutson is as low as +500 and while he technically has the second highest odds, he still appears as a long shot to win the coveted award.
There are many valid arguments for Celebrini to be the betting favorite. As mentioned prior, Celebrini has played 49 games to Hutson's 60. Celebrini is producing at a .90 point per game clip to Hutson's .77 points per game. Celebrini also plays on the San Jose Sharks, who at this point in the season only have 39 points to Montreal's 63. He leads their team in points and is playing top-line center minutes against the likes of Connor McDavid, Anze Kopitar, and Jack Eichel; which can take its toll over the season.
I'm biased towards Hutson. Since he was drafted, I've been following him, even getting to see him and the BU Terriers spank my University of Vermont Catamounts on a few occasions. That being said +500 is a little crazy to me especially with 22 games left to play. It's absurd to think that if the season ended today he wouldn't win the Calder. He's on pace for around 63 points if he plays all remaining Habs games as a rookie defensemen.
While I don't personally believe that Celebrini shoud win as of today, the odds tell me there are only a few hypotheticals where Hutson could win and even it seems like a long shot betting wise. One, the Habs make the playoffs. Two, Hutson leads rookie scoring by 10-12 points, which at this point seems unlikely, but I'd view this margin as cancelling out the argument of Celebrini's 11 missed games. Health is important. Could there be an argument that if Hutson plays every game, he is more valuable? Of course. But the award is Rookie of the Year, not Most Valuable Rookie which could be why Celebrini is the favorite.
This race is very reminicent of last year's. The number one overall pick, centermen, on a team who should be picking top-5 again versus the second round pick, defensemen, on the team in the wild card hunt. Of course, I'm talking about Connor Bedard and Brock Faber. Similarly, Bedard missed games and still put up 60 points, solidifying his Calder win. Faber played every game and played top pair minutes (similar to Hutson) including penalty kill time. I always wonder if marketability is ever a factor in these types of awards. Bedard has been a media darling for the league since before he was even drafted. Very early on analysts were calling Bedard the next Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid. From a league perspective, it would be better to market Bedard as "Rookie of the Year" winner than a guy like Brock Faber and perhaps the same applies to Celebrini and Hutson.
While I want Hutson to win, he seems like the type of guy to not really care, and probably be happy his former teammate won it. I can see both sides of the coin, but as of now Vegas is disrespecting the abilities and impact Hutson has had on each game he's played in this year.