Montreal Canadiens: By the Numbers – November 2023

Another month of the NHL season has come and gone, which means it’s time for another edition of By The Numbers. This is a series in which we take a more analytical approach to viewing the Canadiens performance on the season. Doing so helps us notice certain trends and see more glaring room for improvement within the team. You can read the October edition here.

After a strong first month of the season, which saw the Canadiens go 5-2-2, the month of November wasn’t quite as kind. Montreal went 5-9 with a goal differential of -16 and a four-game losing streak packed in there as well. And of those five wins, three of them needed extra time to be decided. Let’s get into the numbers.

In October, the Canadiens were getting excellent goaltending, with a team GSAx of 7.56. This was especially true at five-on-five, with Sam Montembeault being especially good here. In November, the goaltending wasn’t nearly as good and was a big reason why the Canadiens 5v5 GF% went from 69.57% in October (First in the NHL) to 42.86% (29th). Montreal had -3.38 GSAx this month, which is to say below average, and certainly a contributing factor to the struggles.

But the goalies don’t carry all the burden here; there are lots of “bad” stats and plenty of blame to go around. For instance, defensively, the Canadiens aren’t exactly making life easy for the goalies. On the season the Habs allow the third most shots in the league and the second most xGA/60. This means the three netminders are very busy, facing numerous quality chances a game. At five-on-five, the Canadiens ranked 27th in the NHL in November in xGA/60, with the total nearing three a game.

The injuries on the backend certainly don’t help, but that, mixed with a penalty kill operating at just 73.9% on the season (27th), means a lot of goals against.  And that rings true with the Canadiens giving up nearly four goals per game at 3.7 last month. And this puts more stress on an offence that already has enough issues to deal with as it is.

In October, the Canadiens averaged three goals a game but saw that number drop to just 2.5 in November. At the best of times, the Canadiens struggle to generate offence, but as the injuries continue to add up and certain players continue to struggle, the offence is having difficulty getting anything going. For a while there, the Canadiens were actually relying on their powerplay for a large chunk of their offence, which is how you know things aren’t going well.

In November, the Habs offence ranked 28th in the NHL with 2.34 xGF/60 at five-on-five. For a team with good finishing, that’s not a huge concern. For example, Detroit is actually below the Canadiens, sitting at 30th, but they have been able to bury the chances they had. Montreal, has not. And part of that is luck, but a lot of that is talent. The Canadiens don’t have many pure scorers on their roster, and the ones they do have are struggling.

All around the Canadiens are somewhat of a mess right now. They’re injured, giving up many scoring chances and failing to generate their own. And they’re not getting the goaltending to mitigate some of those problems. Now, that’s not the end of the world, Montreal is rebuilding, but it’s apparent that the Habs are not all that close to contending right now.

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