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Montreal Canadiens: Analytics Models Projecting Terrible Season For Habs

By Ken MacMillan

MONTREAL, CANADA - JANUARY 07: Kirby Dach #77 of the Montreal Canadiens celebrates his goal with teammates Jonathan Drouin #27 and Cole Caufield #22 during the second period of the game against the St. Louis Blues at Centre Bell on January 7, 2023 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)
MONTREAL, CANADA - JANUARY 07: Kirby Dach #77 of the Montreal Canadiens celebrates his goal with teammates Jonathan Drouin #27 and Cole Caufield #22 during the second period of the game against the St. Louis Blues at Centre Bell on January 7, 2023 in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images) /
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The Montreal Canadiens have just gone through two of the worst years in their entire history.

The 2021-22 season saw them drop to last in the NHL standings, and finish with just 55 points in an 82 game season. It was arguably their worst season ever. They even had more points in each of the recently shortened seasons, when they played just 56 games the previous season due to Covid restrictions and when they played 48 games in the 2013 lockout shortened year.

Last season was better, as they moved up to 68 points, a 13 point increase over the previous season. It was still only  good enough to move up to fifth last in the entire league’s standings.

The additions of Alex Newhook and the continued development of an incredibly young group of defensemen led by Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Arber Xhekaj and Johnathan Kovacevic are enough to convince most Habs fans the team’s climb in the overall standings should continue. Also, the team just has to be more healthy than it was the past two seasons which should lead to a further increase in point totals.

Shouldn’t it?

Not according to many analytics models used to predict NHL standings. The most recent one published was by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic. His predictions do not expect to see much change at all in the bottom of the overall standings.

The bottom five teams in the standings last season were the Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks and Montreal Canadiens.

Luszczyszyn predicts those five teams to be in the bottom six yet again, with the Philadelphia Flyers dropping a few spots to join them. The Canadiens are predicted to be worse than a year ago and finish with just 70.8 points, which puts them in second last in the overall standings ahead of just the lowly Sharks.

This seems a bit low if you ask Habs fans who believe the team can be better simply because they only had one player stay healthy all of last year. More games from Cole Caufield and Kirby Dach, another year of development from Juraj Slafkovsky and all those young blue liners should lead to a jump up the standings and not a step back in 2023-24.

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