Canadiens: Predicting Habs Final Training Camp Cuts

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The Montreal Canadiens started camp with 72 players on the roster just over a week ago.

With a series of cuts, demotions, reassignments, players heading back to Europe and Laval Rocket training camp opening, the team has less than half of those players remaining in camp.

At current count, there are 28 players still healthy at Canadiens camp. Carey Price, Chris Wideman and Christian Dvorak are also still listed on the roster, but they are injured and will not be playing when the regular season begins next Wednesday, so they are not being counted at all in this exercise.

Cutting the roster down from 72 to 28 was not all that difficult. There are not a lot of controversial decisions made with the first few waves of cuts. Sure, there is an argument to be made that a young player like David Reinbacher, Owen Beck or Joshua Roy played well enough to stick around longer, but the team is obviously focused on long term development and will let them progress at a lower level this season.

Even those decisions were not really controversial, in fact they were mostly met with applause from the fan base who seem to preach patience more than most general managers around the league.

With just two preseason games remaining on the schedule, the team is running out of opportunities to evaluate the players still in camp. These two games will be crucial for anyone on the bubble who is trying to start the season with the team.

While those two games will likely tell the rest of the story here, we have seen plenty already in training camp and are prepared to make our predictions for who will be let go.

Here, we predict the final handful of cuts that are yet to be made, and break down the decisions by each position.

Sep 25, 2023; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens goalie Sam Montembeault. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /

Goaltenders

How many goaltenders are still left at camp? 3. How many need to be cut? 1.

Who is still on the roster? Jake Allen, Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau.

There is a big difference between what I would do in this situation and what I think is going to happen. Jake Allen is going nowhere and will be here as the team’s mentor and veteran leader in goal.

A year ago, it was clear the plan was to have Allen mentoring Cayden Primeau during the 2023-24 season. Primeau signed a three year contract extension last October that kicked in right away. It was a one-way contract so he made good money to play last season in the AHL, but clearly the plan was to have him in the NHL this season.

Allen also signed a contract around the same time as Primeau, just over a year ago. He had one year left on his previous contract at that time so his two year deal begins now. The plan at that time sure seemed to be Primeau and Allen sharing the net this season.

Then Montembeault played 40 games last season and posted a 3.42 GAA with a .901 SV%. Now, he seems to have the inside track on the starter’s role, which changes the team’s original plan. This means Primeau is likely to hit waivers at some point as the Habs try to sneak him back to the minors for one more season of development.

That is my prediction of what will happen, though I would be looking to move Montembeault for a small return instead of risking losing Primeau for nothing. Montembeault had some great games last season, but will be 27 soon and has played 103 career NHL games with a 3.49 GAA and an .896 SV%.

Primeau is three years younger as he just turned 24 and has shown some promise at the AHL level when given a chance to play. He has not shown to be brilliant at the NHL level yet, but he was also not given much of a chance to this point in his career.

I’d gamble on the younger goalie and hope he can develop under Allen’s wing, but I fully expect Primeau to be put on waivers and either claimed by the Chicago Blackhawks or sent to the Laval Rocket.

Sep 25, 2023; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Logan Mailloux. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /

Defensemen

How many defensemen are still left at camp? 10. How many need to be cut? 3.

Who is still on the roster? Justin Barron, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Johnathan Kovacevic, Gustav Lindstrom, Logan Mailloux, Mike Matheson, Mattias Norlinder, David Savard, Arber Xhekaj.

The Canadiens are going to have a young blue line no matter what happens between now and the drop of the puck on the regular season on October 11. There are a couple of veterans locks on the roster though as Matheson and Savard are guaranteed to be on the roster if they are healthy. Matheson is battling something right now, but it sounded short term so we are assuming he is healthy when the regular season begins.

Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Johnathan Kovacevic and Arber Xhekaj were regulars on the Canaidens blue line last season and should all be on the roster to begin the year. That already gives us six defensemen on the team, leaving just one open spot for Barron, Lindstrom, Mailloux and Norlinder.

Norlinder and Mailloux have an offensive side to their game that the Canadiens could desperately use on the back end, but they just are not ready yet. They will benefit from time with the Laval Rocket and that is where they should begin the season.

That leaves one final roster spot that will be given to either Barron or Lindstrom. Barron does not require waivers which works against him, but Lindstrom has not proven to be a better option than Barron.

This will be interesting as there is a valid argument to be made that Barron would be better off playing big minutes and running the power play for the Rocket than being the seventh defenseman on the Canadiens roster and watching some games from the press box.

I tend to agree with that line of thinking and believe Barron will be sent down to start the season but immediately called up when an injury occurs. Lindstrom will make the team but serve as the seventh defenseman who travels with the team but rarely plays.

Sep 27, 2023; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens left wing Emil Heineman. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports /

Forwards

How many forwards are still left at camp? 15. How many need to be cut? At least 1, and possibly 2.

Who is still on the roster? Josh Anderson, Joel Armia, Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Emil Heineman, Sean Monahan, Alex Newhook, Tanner Pearson, Michael Pezzetta, Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, Jesse Ylonen.

The two forwards who were placed on waivers yesterday, Lias Andersson and Philippe Maillet, brought the total number of forwards down to 15 and left really just one more to go. The Canadiens could choose to cut two more and open up a little more cap space, but they don’t need to do that to be cap compliant.

Teams are allowed to have 23 players on their roster and if the Habs cut down to two goaltenders and seven defenseman as we previously mentioned, they would likely keep 14 forwards.

So, who is the final cut up front?

Though he has had a strong camp, the easy decision to make is to send Emil Heineman down to the Rocket. He has played well, showing off strength, a good, powerful skating stride and a hard shot, but he has only 13 games of experience in North America and is just 21 years old. He does have years of pro experience in Sweden, but starting the year in Laval will not hurt him.

Also, he does not require waivers to be sent down while many of the other players still in camp do, so that is working against Heineman as well. This makes Heineman the right choice to be sent down to begin the season.

Nov 12, 2022; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens forward Nick Suzuki. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports /

The Opening Lineup

With the final cuts predicted to be Cayden Primeau, Justin Barron, Logan Mailloux, Mattias Norlinder, and Emil Heineman, that leaves a roster of 23 players including 14 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders.

The opening night lineup would then look something like this:

Alex Newhook – Nick Suzuki – Cole Caufield

Juraj Slafkovsky – Kirby Dach – Rafael Harvey-Pinard

Tanner Pearson – Sean Monahan – Josh Anderson

Jesse Ylonen – Jake Evans – Brendan Gallagher

Extras: Joel Armia, Michael Pezzetta

Mike Matheson – David Savard

Kaiden Guhle – Jordan Harris

Arber Xhekaj – Johnathan Kovacevic

Extra: Gustav Lindstrom

Sam Montembeault

Jake Allen

It may not be a playoff contending roster, but a first line of Suzuki, Caufield and Newhook would bring plenty of flash, skating and scoring punch. Following that up with a trio of Dach, Slafkovsky and Harvey-Pinard which has proven to be quite difficult to play against in preseason action gives the Habs a steady top six.

A veteran laden bottom six with Pearson and Monahan on line three with Anderson as well as Gallagher on the fourth line with Evans and Ylonen would give the Habs quality depth though a bit of a lack of scoring if injuries start to amount early on in the season.

The defense pairings are pretty much interchangeable but I think we will see the coach lean heavily on a couple of veterans at the top while the younger players have a bit of an internal battle for ice time.

Montembeault seems the likely choice to start game one but he will split time with Allen for the third consecutive season.

Next. Habs Poised For Huge Breakout Season. dark

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